College Football Projections: ACC

Since expansion in 2004, the ACC has been a disappointment in football. The league has yet to match its bellcows, Florida State and Miami, in the championship game. The conference has not earned an at-large bid to a BCS bowl. And, the conference has not earned a win in a BCS bowl since expansion. This year has the potential to be different.

Once upon a time, Clemson was the sole football power in the ACC. The Tigers won a national championship in 1981, and dominated the conference before Florida State joined in 1992. Since then, Clemson has not won a conference championship. That could change this season. The Tigers look to have their best team in Tommy Bowden’s nine years at the school. They look to be favored in every game in their schedule, including a road trip to Florida State.

Speaking of Papa Bowden and Florida State, the Seminoles have slipped in recent years. FSU stands to improve on recent years, though, and has a chance to make a BCS bowl. If some things go their way, they could even pass Clemson for the championship of the Atlantic division.

Maryland, Wake Forest, and Boston College will all be pretty good, but not nearly on Clemson’s level. BC is in a rebuilding year after losing QB Matt Ryan to the Atlanta Falcons. North Carolina State looks to have a long season and will finish last in the Atlantic division.

In the Coastal division, Virginia Tech rules the roost. No pun intended, as the Hokies’ other nickname is Gobblers. The Fighting Frank Beamers have a couple of interesting road trips, to Nebraska and Florida State. VT should be good enough to win this division again.

The Hokies will be followed by the Butch Davis teams: his former school at Miami, and his current North Carolina Tar Heels. Georgia Tech will achieve their same usual result: middle of the pack. Duke will make large strides under new coach David Cutcliffe, and win as many as five games, which is more than the Blue Devils have won in the last four years. Virginia will be rebuilding after losing a load from a team that won 8 games last year, many by narrow margins. The Cavaliers will not be as fortunate this year.

Projected Finish:
Atlantic
Clemson 12-0, 8-0
Florida State 10-2, 7-1
Maryland 7-5, 4-4
Wake Forest 7-5, 3-5
Boston College 6-6, 2-6
NC State 3-9, 2-6
Coastal
Virginia Tech 11-1, 7-1
Miami 8-4, 5-3
North Carolina 7-5, 5-3
Georgia Tech 6-6, 3-5
Duke 5-7, 2-6
Virginia 2-10, 1-7

NCAA Projections: ACC

Yesterday, we barely dipped our toes into the BCS water by projecting Notre Dame and its independent cousins Army and Navy. Today is the first of my projections for BCS conferences. We begin in the ACC.

The ACC has begun its expansion era with a thud. The conference originally expanded to 12 teams with the idea of matching Florida State and Miami in a championship game most years, if not every year. Instead, Virginia Tech won the league in 2004, an 8-4 Florida State team won the first championship game over favored VT in 2005, and Wake Forest beat Georgia Tech last year in a 9-6 snoozer at a half-full Alltel Stadium in Jacksonville. Needless to say, the ACC didn't expand for Wake Forest to win championships in front of an empty stadium. It expanded in an attempt to become a mid-Atlantic version of the football revenue-generating SEC. Instead, it has diluted its product. Whereas before it was Florida State and the Eight Dwarfs, now it is just a bunch of good but not great teams, with a horrible Duke team thrown in for good measure.

In the Atlantic Division, Florida State looks to rebound after an uncharacteristic 7-6 season. Bobby Bowden brought in four new assistants to provide new blood. The Seminoles always recruit well, and will bounce back to win this division. Wake Forest won't go away quietly. They'll represent themselves well, and may be a bit better than last year's conference champion. Maryland will have a good season, Clemson and Boston College look to be middle-of-the road, while N.C. State looks to rebuild after stealing coach Tom O'Brien from conference rival Boston College.

Florida State 10-2 7-1
Maryland 8-4 6-2
Wake Forest 9-3 5-3
Clemson 7-5 4-4
Boston College 6-6 3-5
N.C. State 3-9 1-7

In the Coastal Division, Virginia Tech is top dog (no Mike Vick pun intended). They'd have a great chance to go undefeated, but they have this thing called a date at LSU in Week 2. Good luck with all that. Still, they'll earn a date with Florida State in Jacksonville on December 1. Georgia Tech will earn their normal 7 wins. Miami will bounce back in the future, but not this year. They'll also win 7 games. North Carolina and Virginia look to be below average, while I expect Duke to go winless for the second year in a row. That doesn't really matter, as Duke is a basketball school.

Virginia Tech 11-1 8-0
Georgia Tech 7-5 5-3
Miami 7-5 4-4
North Carolina 5-7 4-4
Virginia 5-7 1-7
Duke 0-12 0-8

Editor's Note: I will be blogging more sporadically for the next four days. I leave Sunday evening for a work-related trip to the City of Brotherly Love, a/k/a Philadelphia. I will have my computer with me, but cannot guarantee any posts after Sunday. More BCS conference projections are coming, as are NFL projections.