College Football Predictions: Conference USA

I haven’t forgotten about college football. There’ll be no video tonight, but there will be more fearless predictions. By the way, I went way out on a limb in picking Middle Tennessee to win the Sun Belt, and I’m catching a lot of grief for it on Sun Belt message boards. Their schedule looks very favorable, as they play the good teams in their conference at home. I have no choice but to stand by my predictions there. However, Troy and Florida Atlantic won’t let them give up without a fight.

Which reminds me: I do this for fun. I do not get paid for it. I’m just a guy in Texas with a computer and an internet connection. I have opinions, and so does everyone else. That’s why America is such a great country.

That has nothing to do with tonight’s topic: Conference USA. This league has a lot of pride and several programs that have made splashes on the national stage in their history.

The power in this conference resides in the West division this year. Some pundits give Tulsa a chance to go undefeated and to crash the BCS. The Golden Hurricane will be favored in all but one or two of their games. I’m tempted to jump on the undefeated bandwagon for them, but I can’t. The Hurricane will stumble once on their way to the C-USA championship game.

Also in the West, Houston welcomes new coach Kevin Sumlin, and should have another good season, though not quite winning the division. The team to watch here, though is on the Hilltop in University Park. SMU opened the checkbook and lured June Jones from Hawaii to coach the Mustangs. Perhaps SMU shouldn’t give up football, after all (apologies to Mike Rhyner of the Ticket in Dallas). I expect the Mustangs to win 7 games and go to a bowl game for the first time since they were paying players big money and getting caught. UTEP has a chance to make noise early with a home game against Texas, and will not go away easily in C-USA. Tulane and Rice will struggle on the field, but will excel in the classroom.

In the East, East Carolina looks to be the favorite as they follow up last year’s bowl win. UCF, Memphis, and Southern Miss will all be bunched together, while Marshall should be improved over the last couple of years. UAB will bring up the rear.

This conference will have a championship game. Tulsa will host East Carolina and defeat the Pirates for a trip to the Liberty Bowl in Memphis.

Projected Finish:
East
East Carolina 8-4, 6-2
UCF 6-6, 5-3
Memphis 6-6, 4-4
Marshall 5-7, 4-4
Southern Miss 5-7, 4-4
UAB 1-11, 0-8
West
Tulsa 11-1, 8-0
Houston 9-3, 6-2
SMU 7-5, 5-3
UTEP 6-6, 4-4
Tulane 4-8, 2-6
Rice 1-11, 0-8

NCAA Projections: Conference USA

Today's conference is Conference USA. This is the projection that I probably least enjoy doing. I find this conference rather boring and nondescript. But, it is a Football Bowl Subdivision conference, so I will project it. This is a far-flung group of schools scattered from North Carolina to almost New Mexico. Most of the schools in this conference have seen better days. They play pretty decent football at the top of the league. All of these schools struggle for exposure, competing with power conferences such as the Big 12 and SEC. Personally, if I have to choose between paying to watch Houston or Rice, and staying home to watch Big 12 games on TV, I'll choose the Big 12.

Southern Miss looks to repeat as champions of the East division. They are the best team in the division. Memphis will bounce back and finish right behind them. The rest of the division is full of mediocrity.

The West will be won by a team from the West Texas town of El Paso. UTEP and Tulsa will tie for the division lead, but UTEP will gain the tiebreaker with a head-to-head win. Houston will be solid, as well. SMU, Rice, and Tulane should consider dropping football. I'm only half-joking on that. Rice actually made it to a bowl game last year, but I expect it to be a one-year aberration after their coach left upon agreeing to a new contract.

Projected Standings:

East Division
Southern Miss 9-3 7-1
Memphis 8-4 6-2
UCF 6-6 5-3
East Carolina 6-6 4-4
Marshall 3-9 2-6
UAB 2-10 1-7

West Division
UTEP 10-2 7-1
Tulsa 10-2 7-1
Houston 8-4 6-2
SMU 5-7 3-5
Rice 2-10 1-7
Tulane 1-11 0-8