College Football Projections: Mountain West

The best of the non-BCS conferences is traditionally the Mountain West Conference. This league is as much a victim of geography as anything, as there just aren’t that many TV sets between the Midwest and the West Coast. Nonetheless, this conference is a really big deal in places like the state of Utah.

The Mountain West has three teams that can play with anyone in the country. Utah, BYU, and TCU will take turns whipping up on the rest of this conference. The Utes’ toughest game will be their first: a trip to the Big House in Ann Arbor to take on Michigan in the first game for the Wolverines’ new coach. The last time Meatchicken opened a season at home, they lost to Appalachian State. So, there is hope for the Utes. Utah gets both TCU and BYU at home in November. The schedule is very favorable for them once they get past the Michigan game.

BYU will be very good, as well. The Y has the misfortune of having to travel to both TCU and Utah. Some believe the Cougars could crash the BCS. If they go through their schedule 12-0, they will very well deserve a BCS bid. They won’t go 12-0, though, and will have to settle for a December bowl game somewhere.

TCU looks to be strong, also. The Frogs will be favored in every game except two: trips to Norman, Oklahoma and Salt Lake City. TCU has won in their last two trips to Oklahoma. The last time the teams played was in 2005, when the Frogs went 11-1 and the Sooners went an uncharacteristic 9-4. In the conference, TCU should split with the two Utah teams and roll over everyone else.

The rest of the conference looks to be relatively even. However, there will be a surprise team. The Rebels of UNLV have been in a slump throughout most of this decade. They will break through for a winning record and a bowl game. Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico, and San Diego State will take turns beating each other up. Colorado State is going through a coaching change and will struggle this year.

Projected Finish:
Utah 11-1, 8-0
TCU 10-2, 7-1
BYU 10-2, 6-2
UNLV 7-5, 5-3
Wyoming 5-7, 3-5
Air Force 5-7, 2-6
New Mexico 4-8, 2-6
San Diego State 4-8, 2-6
Colorado State 2-10, 1-7

NCAA Projections: Mountain West

Today, I will project results for the Mountain West Conference. This is traditionally the best of the non-BCS conferences, though Boise State and the WAC would have an argument with that.

This conference was helped by the addition of TCU. The Horned Frogs won the league two seasons ago in their debut, and finished second last year. The Frogs have been to six bowl games in the last seven years. Only BYU and Utah have beaten the Frogs in conference play.

TCU will be good again this year. However, I expect for them to stumble twice. The first loss will be to Texas in Austin. It will be a very good game, but I don't expect the Frogs to catch Texas by surprise. The Longhorns know what happened in Norman when TCU last visited there. TCU will give the Horns all they want, and will probably even outplay Texas. But, I look for the Horns to luck out and take advantage of some home cooking. I would love to be wrong on that.

The second TCU loss will allow BYU to win the conference. TCU visits Provo on a Thursday night in November. I look for the Y to take advantage of home field and handle TCU, thus winning the conference.

Utah will be pretty decent, but is playing a killer non-conference schedule, including Oregon State, UCLA, and Louisville. Still, they should be much better than the bottom two-thirds of the conference.

The rest of this conference is pretty forgettable. But, a bottom-dweller here isn't as bad as one in the other non-BCS conferences.

Projected Standings:

BYU 10-2 8-0
TCU 10-2 7-1
Utah 7-5 6-2
Air Force 5-7 3-5
New Mexico 5-7 3-5
Colorado State 4-8 3-5
San Diego State 3-9 2-6
UNLV 3-9 2-6
Wyoming 3-9 2-6