Thursday, August 16, 2007

NCAA Projections: Big 12


I'm back in Texas today, and it's fitting that I project the Big XII Conference.

The Big 12 has become increasingly top-heavy, with the power residing in the South Division. Oklahoma and Texas are leading an arms race, and it's all the rest of the conference can do to keep up. Any time either OU or UT lose, it's an upset. That won't change this year.

The South division is comparable to any group of power schools in America. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State are dangerous. However, they can't keep up long-term with the big dogs in Norman and Austin. Baylor has made huge strides under coach Guy Morriss, but can still only muster four or five wins per year.

On the other hand, the North division has been weak for the last few years. The division appears to have bottomed out, but as long as Nebraska is not national championship caliber, the North will be perceived as weak.

In the South, OU and Texas are head and shoulders ahead of everyone else. OU is strong at all positions except quarterback, where an untested player will line up behind center. Texas has a load of athletes as well, and hopes for QB Colt McCoy to be healthy. McCoy's injury last season led to two late season losses to Kansas State and Texas A&M. I predict one loss between the two teams: in Dallas on October 6, when the Sooners break a two-year losing streak to the Longhorns. OU will run the table at 12-0, and Texas will finish 11-1.

There will be a coaching change in College Station at the end of the year. Dennis Franchione faces a suicidal schedule this season, as the Fightin' Texas Aggies must travel to Miami, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Missouri. It would be an accomplishment to win one of those road games, much less more than one. It would be hard for any team this side of the NFL to run the table against that road schedule. In addition to that, Texas visits Aggieland with revenge on their mind, following last year's A&M win in Austin. Aggie boosters are already passing the hat to raise money for the buyout of Coach Fran. He would probably already be gone, but the Aggies pulled off that season-ending upset over hated archrival Texas, preserving his job for another year.

In the North, this should be the year of the Missouri Tigers. Missouri looks to be a good team with a favorable schedule. However, I don't trust them in big games. I don't really trust the modern-day Nebraska Cornhuskers in big games, either. However, something has to give when the Huskers visit Columbia in October. I look for Nebraska to escape Columbia with a win, and to win the North championship. The rest of the division looks pretty mediocre.

Big XII Projections

North
Nebraska 9-3 7-1
Missouri 10-2 6-2
Kansas State 5-7 3-5
Kansas 6-6 2-6
Iowa State 4-8 2-6
Colorado 3-9 1-7

South
Oklahoma 12-0 8-0
Texas 11-1 7-1
Texas Tech 8-4 4-4
Oklahoma State 6-6 4-4
Texas A&M 6-6 3-5
Baylor 4-8 1-7

2 comments:

Zee said...

OU 12-0 ... LOL!!!!!!!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA! Boy, is this biased or what??!!

I think you will have to recant this soon.

John said...

OU will be favored over every team they play, except for maybe Texas. The game against Tech in Lubbock could be tough as well. But, things are lining up pretty well for them. However, I don't expect a national championship.

If they had Nebraska's non-conference schedule, they wouldn't go undefeated. USC would beat them.