College Football Projections: Sun Belt

Tonight is the first installment of projections for the 11 major college football conferences. The projections will be posted in order of relevance to the college football landscape and my personal preference.

I will predict the five non-BCS conferences first, followed by independents, then the six BCS conferences.

The first conference I will predict is the Sun Belt Conference. Traditionally known as the dregs of the Football Bowl Subdivision, the Sun Belt is becoming increasingly more competitive. Ask Alabama about the Sun Belt, as the Tide lost at home to Sun Belt middle-of-the-roader Louisiana-Monroe last season. These schools still play a lot of money games against the big boys, but they are becoming more competitive against the rest of the division formerly known as I-A.

Why am I predicting the Sun Belt? Why does it matter? It matters to people in places like Murfreesboro, TN and Monroe, LA. These are athletes playing big-time college football. The winner earns a bid to a bowl game. Ok, it’s the New Orleans Bowl, but Florida Atlantic won that game over Memphis last year. Plus, Troy won 8 games last year but was passed over for a bowl bid after losing the last game of the year to Florida Atlantic. This conference is part of the FBS, so I’ll pick it.

This year, Middle Tennessee looks to be the team to beat. Troy will be good as well, but the schedule favors the Blue Raiders of MTSU. The conference could be decided in the first week of the season, when Troy travels to Murfreesboro to play MTSU. By the way, Troy will be making some serious dough for its athletic department by playing a killer non-conference schedule with trips to LSU, Ohio State, and Oklahoma State. Florida Atlantic will also be decent, as well. These three teams will be the class of the league.

Projected order of finish:
Middle Tennessee 8-4 7-0
Troy 7-5 5-2
Florida Atlantic 7-5 5-2
Louisiana-Monroe 5-7 4-3
North Texas 5-7 3-4
Arkansas State 4-8 3-4
Louisiana-Lafayette 2-10 2-5
Florida International 1-11 0-7

Coming up next: MAC

NCAA Projections: Sun Belt Conference

The beginning of college football season is less than a month away. Beginning today, I will project and predict results for each of the 11 Football Bowl Subdivision conferences, plus independents.

Today, we begin with the Sun Belt Conference. The Sun Belt is traditionally the weakest of the FBS conferences. The conference chooses to play with the big boys, offering up to 85 scholarships, and playing multiple money games on the road at schools such as Florida and Georgia in order to pay for them. The schools would all rather play for a trip to the New Orleans Bowl in mid-December than for the Football Championship Series (1-AA) national championship. Occasionally, these teams are competitive with major programs in their scheduled mismatches.

The Sun Belt is the domain of the Men of Troy, Alabama. Troy looks to dominate the conference this year. The Trojans are defending conference champions, and are coming off an impressive win over Rice in last year's New Orleans Bowl. I project Troy as the only team in this conference to finish with an overall winning record. I also predict for the Trojans to execute a Friday night ambush of Oklahoma State in September, as the Cowboys visit Troy, Alabama.

The only other team in this conference from which I expect noise is Florida Atlantic. The Owls, coached by former Miami, Louisville and Oklahoma coach Howard Schnellenberger, play a murderer's row of a non-conference schedule, with trips to Florida, Oklahoma State, and Kentucky, and home games against Minnesota and South Florida. They won't get creamed in all of those games, and will bounce back to handle their Sun Belt foes, with the exception of Troy.

The rest of the conference will be way behind the frontrunners.

Predictions for the Sun Belt Conference:

Troy 9-3 7-0
Florida Atlantic 6-6 6-1
Louisiana-Monroe 5-7 4-3
Arkansas State 4-8 3-4
Middle Tennessee 4-8 3-4
North Texas 4-8 3-4
Louisiana-Lafayette 2-10 1-6
Florida International 1-11 1-6