Here is my predicted bracket for this year’s NCAA tournament. Click on the bracket to view the predictions. The real thing will come out at 5 PM Central time on CBS. This bracket is final, and reflects wins by Kansas over Texas and Georgia (yes, Georgia) over Arkansas.
I have made one major change from previous predictions. I believe that the tournament committee will invite Arizona to the tournament based on its non-conference schedule and injury time to their star player, Jerryd Bayless. Past committees have taken strength of schedule and injuries into account when selecting teams. Arizona State would have made the tournament, but Georgia stole their bid with their improbable run through the bizarre SEC tournament. Ohio State slides out. The Buckeyes are 2-10 against the top 50, hurting themselves in the eyes of the committee.
This blog accurately predicted 32 of the 34 at-large bids a year ago. This blog also predicted 44 of the 65 teams within one seed of their placement in last year’s bracket. Not bad for a guy not named Lunardi or Palm. (BTW, I like Jerry Palm a lot. He’s made a fine business out of bracketology) And, I do this for free.
The seedings are not necessarily based on rankings. The top four seeds are assigned to regional sites closest to home. The rest of the teams are then seeded in relative order. Teams are moved around to comply with NCAA tournament policies such as:
• No home court advantage for lower-seeded teams
• Teams hosting games are not allowed to play at home. For example, Georgetown is not allowed to play in the Washington, D.C. subregional this year.
• Rematches from the regular season are avoided
• Teams from the same conference cannot meet until the regional finals
• Teams from the same conference are placed in different regionals until each regional has a team from that conference
The tournament committee has a tough job. I wouldn’t mind doing it for a year, though. It would be kinda fun to hang out in a hotel in Indy for a week, eating pizza while breaking down film and data with athletic directors and ex-coaches.
Last four in: St. Joseph’s, Arizona, South Alabama, Illinois State
Last four out: Arizona State, Ohio State, Villanova, Oregon
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