Message Board Thread Of The Day

A screen shot during the CBS broadcast of Monday night's Kansas-Memphis national championship game caught none other than Hall of Fame coach Roy Williams sitting in the Kansas section with a KU sticker on his shirt. Williams just happens to be the coach at North Carolina. His Tar Heels were thumped Saturday night by those same Jayhawks. Roy coached at KU for 15 years before moving back home to Carolina in 2003.

The natives in Carolina are restless. Many look at this as an act of sacrilege, as if Williams wants to go back to KU. The leading UNC message board, Inside Carolina, currently has a 19 page thread debating the idea of Williams taking on the KU colors for one more night:

Roy Williams

There is a long-running rivalry between fans of Kansas and North Carolina. They have a history of sharing coaches. UNC legend Dean Smith played at Kansas. KU national championship coach Larry Brown played for Smith at UNC. Former Smith assistant Williams graduated from UNC and coached at both KU and UNC. KU fans would like to take the credit for UNC's success. The truth is, Frank McGuire was winning games at UNC before Dean Smith got there. Likewise, KU was winning games before they got coaches from UNC.

This year, though, KU has scoreboard on Carolina.

Rock Chalk Jayhawk

The Kansas Jayhawks completed a comeback for the ages to win the national championship a few moments ago. Memphis had a nine-point lead over the Jayhawks with 2:12 left in regulation. Kansas took advantage of a ton of missed Memphis free throws to get back in the game and finish it off in overtime, 75-69.

An age-old maxim of basketball proved itself true once again: the team that makes free throws wins games.

The Jayhawks win their third national championship, and their first in twenty years.

Bill Self is about to be an even richer man. At worst, KU will pony up to give him a substantial raise. And, Boone Pickens will try to break the bank to bring him back home to Stillwater.

This is the first men's basketball national championship for the Big 12 Conference. KU's last national championship was won as part of the Big 8.

As I type, CBS is about to play "One Shining Moment". That song symbolizes the end of winter and of basketball season. Once that song signs off, it is officially spring. Time for NBA post-season and baseball...

More Final Four Thoughts

The two teams I thought would not make the national championship game will be playing Monday night. Memphis finished off UCLA, 78-63, while Kansas beat the snot out of North Carolina, 84-66.

Kansas-Memphis will be a yawner on the East and West coasts, and has the potential to be a TV ratings loser for CBS. However, it will be a great game. KU looked good tonight, but Memphis is really, really strong.

A team wearing blue and white will win on Monday night.

Final Four Thoughts

Observations while watching the first half of UCLA vs. Memphis:

Both of these teams are really good. I picked UCLA before the tournament to win the whole enchilada, but Memphis has looked really, really good the last two weeks. They are definitely not your standard garden variety Conference USA team. They've lost one game all year, on a night they played a subpar game against Tennessee.

The next game should be fun. Roy Williams leads North Carolina against his old school, Kansas. Both schools are forever entwined through KU alum and UNC coaching legend Dean Smith, and his pupils including former KU coaches Larry Brown and Roy Williams. Bill Self is in his first Final Four and finds himself in the same position as Roy Williams in 2003: with his alma mater calling. Oklahoma State is offering a lot of T. Boone Pickens' money to Self to come home. Five years ago, Roy Williams was lured back home to UNC after taking KU to the national championship game.

More later tonight...

Boone's Farm

Stillwater, Oklahoma has become the epicenter of controversy in the last 36 hours. Oklahoma State fired Sean Sutton as head men’s basketball coach after just two years, with a total record of 39-29.

There are two camps involved in this mess. Sean Sutton is the son of legendary retired OSU coach Eddie Sutton. Upon taking OSU to the Final Four in 2004, Eddie Sutton asked OSU to name Sean as head coach-designate and his replacement. The elder Sutton threatened to resign if the Cowboys did not follow through with that request. OSU shortly thereafter named Sean Sutton the heir apparent to his father. Sean actually assumed those duties in the middle of the 2006 season, after his father drove drunk and rammed his Dodge Durango into the side of another driver's car, resulting in a DUI and a repeat trip to rehab.

Enter T. Boone Pickens. The corporate raider and OSU alum gave the largest donation in the history of the university to the athletic department in 2005. Pickens pledged $165 million dollars to renovate the football stadium and build new facilities for other sports. In the time period following, the athletic director and university president resigned. $165 million buys a lot of influence. Pickens had his friend, OSU golf coach Mike Holder installed as athletic director. Holder runs the day-to-day operations of the athletic department, but Pickens retains the final word over hiring and firing decisions. Pickens is a fan of football coach Mike Gundy, who has had a barely above average three-year tenure as coach of the Cowboys, but recently had his contract extended.

It is said that the Suttons and their camp never got along with the Pickens gang. With such a large donation, Pickens demands a lot of control. The Suttons stood in the way. As the OSU basketball team plunged into mediocrity, the natives in Stillwater were restless, as was an oilman in Dallas by the last name of Pickens. To make a long story short, Sean Sutton became a millionaire as a result of the buyout of the last three years of his contract.

On one hand, Eddie Sutton set both his alma mater and his son up for failure by pushing Sean into the head coaching chair. It is really hard to follow a legend, and it is impossible when you are the son of said legend. Sean would probably now love to trade places with his brother Scott, a successful head coach for nine years at Oral Roberts. I’m sure the Suttons would like to have some do-overs. Nonetheless, they have reason to be hacked off at their alma mater.

On the other hand, T. Boone Pickens really does own a Big 12 athletic department. Money talks, and big money screams. Watch an OSU football game, and you’ll find T. Boone Pickens on the sidelines in a loud orange sweater, if he’s not yukking it up with the broadcasters in the booth. He makes Jerry Jones look low-profile. Tom Hicks would love to have this kind of control at the University of Texas. Pickens wanted his man as basketball coach. Now, he’ll have his chance.

OSU needed to take some risks if they wanted to compete on the level of rivals Oklahoma and Texas. Control of their athletic department by a megalomaniac is the price they are paying to compete in big-time Division I athletics.

And Then There Were Four

Depending on your perspective, the upcoming Final Four shapes up to be really awesome, or really dull. It's dull if you think four top seeds in the Final Four is boring. It's awesome if you think there will be some awesome hoops in San Antonio this weekend.

Three of the regional finals were pretty dull. North Carolina had a bit of a tussle with Louisville, but pulled away at the end. UCLA and Memphis won their regional finals in a big way. In the best game of the weekend, Kansas barely escaped against Davidson, 59-57. These are heady times in Lawrence, as the basketball team is following up the football team's 12-1 season and win in the Orange Bowl.

For the first time ever, all four top seeds advanced to the Final Four. Three of the bluebloods of college basketball will be there, in North Carolina, UCLA, and Kansas. Memphis is a traditionally strong program, as well.

Just three more games left in the college basketball season..

I'm Not A Genius After All..

...and that's ok, because Davidson is going to the Elite Eight. Wisconsin is the first team I've picked to make a regional final that lost. Thanks to someone's YouTube post, we now have the Davidson fight song as part of this post.

This tournament has an owner, and it's Stephen Curry. The Davidson guard scored 33 points tonight as the Wildcats beat the stuffing out of Wisconsin, 73-56. The tiny North Carolina school awaits the winner of the game between Kansas and Villanova in Sunday's regional final. At this rate, former NBA guard Dell Curry is going to be known as Stephen's father.

Davidson is among the smallest of Division I schools, with 1700 undergraduate students. It is a highly selective school with a $41,000 yearly pricetag. Ouch. The school currently has a $428 million endowment. The school has paid for any desiring student to travel to Detroit to attend this weekend's games. I have a feeling the administrators were expecting one game in Motown, and not two.

Davidson is making the little guys proud.

Basketball Genius?

The science of predicting brackets is part skill and part luck. Not many people, including myself, predicted Davidson and Western Kentucky to make the Sweet 16. But, here they are.

However, teams like Xavier and Louisville are making me look like a genius. I picked both of them to advance to the round of 8 to play UCLA and North Carolina, respectively. And, both of them advanced. My Final Four of UNC, UCLA, Kansas, and Texas are still intact. And, I have them beating Louisville, Xavier, Wisconsin, and Memphis to get there. All of those teams are still alive.

I picked Florida to beat Ohio State in last year's national championship game. That was one of the more obvious picks in recent years. However, if lightning strikes twice, and UCLA beats North Carolina in the final, I'll stand on my head. Shades of Dick Vitale in 1987 when Austin Peay beat Illinois in the first round.

64 to 16

The second round of the NCAA men's tournament produced some expected results, along with some surprises.

Late Saturday night, UCLA won a game it should have lost, coming back from a 10-point second half deficit to get past the Aggies of the Texas Agricultural & Mechanical College, 53-49. The Aggies led for most of the game, but went cold from the field in the second half, costing themselves the game. This bodes well for UCLA, who is bound to play much better next week in Phoenix.

On Sunday, the biggest upset had to be in Raleigh, where Davidson sent Georgetown home, 74-70. The Wildcats advance to the Sweet 16 in Detroit, where Wisconsin awaits.

The last 16 teams left standing:

East: This region held true to form. All four top seeds survived the first two rounds. In the next round, North Carolina plays Washington State, and Tennessee plays Louisville.

Midwest: This is another wild region. Top-seeded Kansas is still alive, and they play 12th-seeded Villanova. In the other half of this region, 3rd seeded Wisconsin plays tournament darling Davidson.

South: This region almost held to form, as 5th seeded Michigan State is the lowest seed remaining. The Spartans next play Memphis, narrow winners over Mississippi State. 2nd seeded Texas plays 3rd seeded Stanford.

West: This is the psycho region, and it was almost wrecked even more before UCLA came back on A&M. UCLA plays 12th seed Western Kentucky. 3rd seeded Xavier plays old friend Bob Huggins and West Virginia.

How did the conferences do? The following conferences have teams left:
Big East: 3 (Louisville, West Virginia, Villanova)
Pac 10: 3 (UCLA, Stanford, Washington State)
Big Ten: 2 (Wisconsin, Michigan State)
Big XII: 2 (Kansas, Texas)
ACC: 1 (North Carolina)
SEC: 1 (Tennessee)
Sun Belt: 1 (Western Kentucky)
Atlantic 10: 1 (Xavier)
Southern: 1 (Davidson)
Conference USA: 1 (Memphis)

More basketball later...

Almost Heaven, West Virginia

And, down goes Duke!

West Virginia did the deed, knocking the hated Blue Devils out of the Tournament, 73-67.

Like him or not, Bob Huggins is a darn good coach. West Virginia did well to bring him back to his alma mater. I kinda like him. He doesn't pretend to be something he's not. He's a basketball coach, period. He recruits basketball players and wins games, period. If a school knows up front what they're getting, like West Virginia and Kansas State before it, they'll be successful on the court.

In the meantime, Duke is a shell of its former self. Good riddance.

Have a Tampa

Isn't that a cigar? In this case, the NCAA had a Tampa on Friday. Not a cigar, but the unlikeliest of events in the subregional site at the St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa (Isn't that strange to have a building named after a newspaper in your rival city across the bay? That would be like an arena in Dallas called the Star-Telegram Center. Strange.). Not one, not two, but four lower seeds advanced from there on Friday. To make things better, the 12th and 13th seeds advanced in Tampa from both the West and Midwest regions. This has never happened, much less at the same site.

The above video is Western Kentucky's Ty Rogers throwing up a 30-footer closely guarded for the win in overtime against Drake. WKU probably, in all honesty, should have been seeded higher. They go on to play San Diego. That's the University of San Diego, not State. The Toreros stunned Connecticut in overtime. You read that right: Western Kentucky is playing San Diego for a trip to the Sweet 16.

But, they weren't done in Tampa. Part of the Midwest bracket played that evening, and 13th seeded Siena pummeled Vanderbilt, 83-62. That wasn't even close. In the nightcap, 12th-seeded Villanova, one of the last two teams to make the tournament, rallied from an 18 point deficit to beat Clemson, 75-69. Villanova and Siena meet on Sunday for a trip to the Sweet 16 in beautiful downtown Detroit.

This is why they call it March Madness.

NCAA Tournament In Brief

And, this will be very brief, as I'm in New York on business and I need to go to bed.

By the way, welcome to anyone who may be passing by. The traffic for this blog has increased exponentially this week as America has been filling out brackets. To all that have stopped by: Thank you!

This was perhaps the most nondescript first round day in the recent history of the NCAA tournament. The closest thing to an upset was 11th seed Kansas State over USC. Belmont nearly shocked Duke, but close only counts in horseshoes and handgrenades. If you like favorites, today was your day.

32 more teams go at it tomorrow. I'm going to bed, going to work, and flying back to Texas.

West Regional Preview and Analysis

The last bracket is in the West. UCLA is once again the team to beat on the Left Coast. Sound familiar?

UCLA spends the first two rounds down the freeway in Anaheim. They play their first game against Mississippi Valley State. The Delta Devils may wish they hadn’t made the tournament when UCLA is through with them. The Bruins go on to play the winner of the matchup between Mitt Romney U. and George H.W. Bush U. Oops, that’s BYU and Texas A&M. The Fightin’ Texas Aggies handle the guys from Provo, then give UCLA a fight before falling short.

One of the best stories of the year has been the Drake Bulldogs, in their first NCAA tournament since baskets were made of wood. Well, not quite, but 1971 was a long time ago. Drake starts with a game against Western Kentucky. This will be a pretty good game, and don’t be surprised if WKU pulls the 5-12 upset off. I’m picking Drake, though. The Bulldogs go on to face Connecticut. The Huskies will pulverize San Diego. UConn will then go on to the Sweet 16 by ending Drake’s dream season.

In the other half of the bracket, the Purdue Boilermakers return to the tournament with a matchup against the Baylor Bears. The Bears had an anxious Selection Sunday, as they were the last team announced in the bracket. It has been an incredible rise from the ashes of death and probation for the Bears. They have guards that can shoot like crazy. The Bears get hot and shock the Boilermakers. They will go on to play Xavier, who brings Georgia’s spectacular run to an end. The X-men then move on to the Sweet 16 in Phoenix with a win over Baylor.

The last pod is in Washington D.C., where West Virginia faces Arizona. The Mountaineers make the tournament in coach Bob Huggins’ first year. They get a first-round win over an Arizona team that barely made the tournament. This sets up a matchup with the Duke Blue Devils, who get a win over Belmont. Duke then beats West Virginia to earn a trip to Phoenix.

In Phoenix, UCLA meets up with UConn. The Huskies should be proud of their season, because it ends in the desert at the hands of the Bruins. The other game out West will pit Xavier and Duke. Xavier becomes America’s Team by playing the hated Duke Blue Devils. The X-men make another trip to the Elite Eight, where they become fodder for the UCLA Final Four run. UCLA is once again the best in the West.

South Regional Preview and Analysis

This tournament is so big, it takes two days to break it down. The next regional is the South Regional. The South will be decided at the World’s Largest Rodeo Arena, aka Reliant Stadium in Houston. Memphis is the top seed here, but will be challenged by Texas.

Elvis’ Team begins their run a few miles down I-40 in North Little Rock. The Memphis Tigers get to play UT-Arlington. The Movin’ Mavs make their first NCAA appearance in history this week, and it could be ugly. Memphis has been playing teams like this all season in Conference USA. I’d like for UTA to make it interesting, but Memphis wins big here. The Tigers play the winner of an evenly matched game between Mississippi State and Oregon. The Ducks better leave the ugly uniforms at home. Mississippi State wins to set up a game with nearby Memphis. MSU throws everything but the kitchen sink at Memphis, but comes up short. Memphis earns a trip to Houston for the Sweet 16.

Way up in the mountains in Denver, Michigan State finds themselves in the favored end of a dreaded 5-12 matchup with Temple. There will be amateur bracketologists out there falling all over themselves to pick Temple. This isn’t the 5-12 upset. MSU wins. They move on to play Pittsburgh, who makes it past a gritty Oral Roberts team. This sets up a great 2nd round matchup between Pittsburgh and Michigan State. This will be the definition of a physical game. Pittsburgh is hot, and moves on to the Sweet 16 with a win over the Spartans.

In the Disneyland pod, played in Anaheim, Marquette takes on the Kentucky Wildcats. UK had a horrific non-conference season, and was hit hard by injuries in the conference season, but still went 12-4 in the SEC. It’s a long way to California for Big Blue Nation. This year, though, the Cats are glad to be in the tournament. Marquette beat UK for a trip to the Final Four five years ago, and gets past the Cats in the first round this year. They move on to take on the Stanford Trees, winners of the SAT Bowl in their first round game with Cornell. Stanford is glad to be out of Pac 10 play, and takes it out on Marquette in the second round.

Back in North Little Rock, the traditional basketball powerhouses of Miami and St. Mary’s meet. Miami represents the ACC, but St. Mary’s is a little better. They earn the right to play Texas, winners over Austin (Let’s Go) Peay. The Longhorns cruise over both Peay and St. Mary’s.

In Houston, Memphis and Pittsburgh meet in a barnburner. Memphis wins a close one in spite of their horrible free throw shooting. Texas sends Stanford back to the Farm. This sets up a game Memphis is suspicious of: playing Texas in their back yard for a trip to the Final Four. Texas gets the best of Memphis to make their second final four this decade under Rick Barnes.

Midwest Regional Preview and Analysis

The Midwest regional is to be played in beautiful downtown Detroit, Michigan. The Kansas Jayhawks, co-regular season and tournament champions of the Big 12 Conference, are the top seed and are favored to advance to the Final Four.

KU starts their road in nearby Omaha, where their fans will take over the building and make the local chamber of commerce very happy. Their first game will be a relative scrimmage with Portland State, making their first appearance in the Big Dance. The Jayhawks would then play the winner of the game between UNLV and Kent State. The Rebels won the Mountain West tournament on their home court last week. Kent State has won 28 games and is a very dangerous team. The Golden Flashes should have their way with UNLV, and present a challenge for KU in round 2 (remember Rhode Island and Bucknell?). KU wins, barely.

The Clemson Tigers are enjoying one of the best seasons in their history, and play perhaps the last team selected for this year’s tournament in Villanova. Clemson handles Villanova in the dreaded 5-12 game, and goes on to meet Vanderbilt, expected winners over (Burnt) Siena. The Tigers then earn a trip to the Sweet 16 with a tough win over Vandy.

In the bottom half of the bracket, the summer league dream matchup takes place, as O.J. Mayo’s team (USC) takes on Michael Beasley’s team (Kansas State). Both of these guys will be getting paid big bucks next year. This year, USC will be too much for K-State, who underachieved this year by playing inconsistently in conference play. The winners plays Wisconsin, who will annihilate Cal State-Fullerton. Wisconsin is very strong, and should probably be a 2nd seed instead of a #3. Wisconsin takes out the O.J. Mayos in round 2 to earn a trip to the Motor City.

Another suspicious matchup of mid-majors pits Gonzaga with Davidson. Gonzaga is not really a mid-major any more, but they are in a mid-major conference. Davidson played anybody and everybody in their non-conference schedule before winning 23 in a row in the Southern Conference. This game is in Raleigh, and the Carolina fans will jump on the Davidson bandwagon. The Zags got a really tough draw. Davidson advances. They will take on Georgetown, who muscles their way past the Retrievers of Maryland-Baltimore County. The Davidson magic ends in the 2nd round, where they fall to Georgetown.

The regional in Detroit features Kansas vs. Clemson and Wisconsin vs. Georgetown. KU should handle Clemson. Wisconsin vs. Georgetown would be a slugfest. Wisconsin wins a close one to get to the Elite Eight once again. Bo Ryan’s team makes KU earn it, but the Jayhawks finally get to the Final Four for the first time in the Bill Self era.

East Regional Preview and Analysis

The first of four regions this blog will break down is the East. North Carolina is the top seed here, as well as in the whole tournament. The regional final will be played down the road in Charlotte. The Tar Heels are favored to win this regional, but it will not be easy for them.

The Heels get to play the winner of the opening-round game in the first round, then will play the winner of the Arkansas-Indiana game. Arky won three in a row at last week’s SEC tournament before running into the Georgia juggernaut. Indiana is reeling in a bad way since the midseason dismissal of coach Kelvin Sampson for repeated recruiting violations. You have to go with the team on the upswing here, and that is the Hogs. The Hogs will put up a gallant effort against the Tar Heels, but Carolina is too much.

Elsewhere in this bracket, the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame take on the Patriots of George Mason in the dreaded 5-12 matchup. Every year, a 5th seed is upset by a 12th seed. History suggests that it will happen here. Notre Dame was upset in the first round last year by Winthrop. G-Mase made an unlikely march to the Final Four in 2006. I predict Mason to knock off the Leprechauns. Speaking of Winthrop, they could play the winner of this game by upsetting Washington State. The Eagles have played themselves into their 8th NCAA tournament in 10 years. Wazzu is a solid team, though, and will beat Winthrop in a close one. Wazzu then knocks off G-Mase to go to the Sweet 16.

In the bottom half of the bracket, my Oklahoma Sooners are an unexpected 6th seed and go to Birmingham, Alabama to take the St. Joseph’s Hawks. OU is a feast or famine team. If the guards are on, the Sooners win. If they’re not, they lose. I’d love to see OU get on a roll in this tournament. My gut doesn’t see it happening. I’m picking St. Joe’s. The Hawks would take on the winner of the game between Louisville and Boise State. The Ville is primed for a deep run in this tournament. They take on the Broncos, survivors of a triple overtime win in the WAC tournament final and a four-team battle royal in the WAC. Boise can play a little, and this will be an interesting game. I’m going with the safe pick and Louisville. The Ville then handles St. Joe’s in the 2nd round.

In the fourth pod of this bracket, the Butler Bulldogs lurk with a chip on their shoulder. Ranked 10th in the polls at the end of the season, the committee stuck them with a 7th seed and a dangerous matchup with South Alabama. Are you as suspicious as I am about the committee’s pairing of two tough mid-majors in the first round? Butler survives and advances. Awaiting Butler is Tennessee, who will have their way with American University. The boys from Rocky Top then will be too much for Butler.

In the Sweet 16, we have Wazzu taking on North Carolina. UNC is a killing machine, and will take care of Washington State. The other matchup is a barnburner between Louisville and Tennessee, causing great angst in Lexington and Big Blue Nation. I like Tennessee’s team a lot, but I look for the Ville to handle them here. Which leads us to the Elite Eight, where Rick Pitino’s Louisville Cardinals meet up with Roy Williams’ North Carolina Tar Heels. It’s the year of the Tar Heel. The planets are lining up for them. Color this regional Carolina blue.

For $60,000...

...your team can host a game in a post-season tournament!

There is a new post-season tournament this season called the College Basketball Invitational. It is for teams that were snubbed by both the NCAA Tournament and the NIT. The organizers found 16 teams to play in this tournament, part of which is to be televised on Fox Sports Net and Fox College Sports.

Several teams from major conferences, such as Alabama, Missouri, and Texas Tech, balked at participating in this event. The organizers were asking for $60,000 in upfront money for schools to host a game. In addition, a host school would have had to organize an event and sell tickets in two days. Some schools said no. There were 16 schools that said yes.

This year's inagural CBI field includes: Virginia, Richmond, Old Dominion, Rider, Washington, Valparaiso, Houston, Nevada, UTEP, Utah, Tulsa, Miami (Ohio), Bradley, Cincinnati, Brown, and Ohio.

Of note: Cincinnati is in this tournament with a 13-18 record. The Bearcats had a good season in Big East play, but were awful in the pre-conference schedule. It would be funny if they won this tournament.

This event fills a void created when the NIT shrunk from 48 to 32 teams and began extending automatic bids to conference champions that did not win their post-season tournaments.

As bad as the CBI could be, it's better than some of the worthless football bowl games out there.

NCAA Tournament Prediction and Analysis

It's Christmas, the 4th of July, and Columbus Day all rolled up into one! It's Selection Sunday, and the readership numbers of this blog have gone through the roof tonight. Welcome!

I'm analyzing the bracket, and just watched UCLA coach Ben Howland do an interview with ESPNU/ESPN2 on behalf of DirecTV. He sat in a studio with a DirecTV background, answered questions about the tournament, then shilled for the Mega March Madness package. I wonder how much he made for that? I want that gig.

I was not surprised by any of the top seeds. As a matter of fact, I have three of the four top seeds advancing to the Final Four. North Carolina, UCLA, and Kansas should make it to San Antonio. The fourth team will be Texas. It's a bit screwy that Memphis will probably play a lower-seeded team in its own state three years in a row. In 2006, the Tigers lost to UCLA in Oakland. Last year, Memphis beat Texas A&M in San Antonio. This year, the Tigers would meet Texas in a regional final in Houston.

Low and behold, there's Ben Howland on another channel talking college hoops and pimping DirecTV's Mega March Madness. Only $69!

This blog guessed 63 of the 65 participants in the field. The only ones I missed on were Villanova and Oregon. I guessed Virginia Tech and Illinois State instead. I did predict 52 of the 65 teams at or within one seed of their position.

The opening round is Tuesday night in Dayton, Ohio, between Mt. St. Mary's and Coppin State. This would probably be better played in Baltimore, but it was already booked for Dayton, so Dayton it is.

More analysis later... Click the graphic for predictions.

Tournament Bracket Prediction

Here is my predicted bracket for this year’s NCAA tournament. Click on the bracket to view the predictions. The real thing will come out at 5 PM Central time on CBS. This bracket is final, and reflects wins by Kansas over Texas and Georgia (yes, Georgia) over Arkansas.

I have made one major change from previous predictions. I believe that the tournament committee will invite Arizona to the tournament based on its non-conference schedule and injury time to their star player, Jerryd Bayless. Past committees have taken strength of schedule and injuries into account when selecting teams. Arizona State would have made the tournament, but Georgia stole their bid with their improbable run through the bizarre SEC tournament. Ohio State slides out. The Buckeyes are 2-10 against the top 50, hurting themselves in the eyes of the committee.

This blog accurately predicted 32 of the 34 at-large bids a year ago. This blog also predicted 44 of the 65 teams within one seed of their placement in last year’s bracket. Not bad for a guy not named Lunardi or Palm. (BTW, I like Jerry Palm a lot. He’s made a fine business out of bracketology) And, I do this for free.

The seedings are not necessarily based on rankings. The top four seeds are assigned to regional sites closest to home. The rest of the teams are then seeded in relative order. Teams are moved around to comply with NCAA tournament policies such as:

• No home court advantage for lower-seeded teams
• Teams hosting games are not allowed to play at home. For example, Georgetown is not allowed to play in the Washington, D.C. subregional this year.
• Rematches from the regular season are avoided
• Teams from the same conference cannot meet until the regional finals
• Teams from the same conference are placed in different regionals until each regional has a team from that conference

The tournament committee has a tough job. I wouldn’t mind doing it for a year, though. It would be kinda fun to hang out in a hotel in Indy for a week, eating pizza while breaking down film and data with athletic directors and ex-coaches.

Last four in: St. Joseph’s, Arizona, South Alabama, Illinois State
Last four out: Arizona State, Ohio State, Villanova, Oregon

NCAA Tournament Projections, 3/3/08

In less than two weeks, 65 Division I men's basketball coaches will be happy, and 276 coaches will be planning for next year (or looking for another job). Sunday, March 16 is Selection Sunday, or Christmas for basketball junkies. That is when the field of 65 teams in the NCAA men's basketball tournament will be announced.

The bracket, as always, is in a state of flux. North Carolina is currently projected as the #1 seed in the tournament. That can and probably will change. The projected results of the tournament are not as important at this point as the predicted field.

The bubble is getting more and more crowded. A lot of teams can still play their way into the tournament.

Among teams that barely missed this week's bracket, but still have a chance: Arizona (it's not enough to play tough teams-you have to beat them as well), New Mexico, Minnesota, Ohio State, St. Joseph's, Houston

Some teams that barely made it, and need to hustle to stay in the bracket: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Maryland, Kansas State, UAB

Click on the graphic to see this week's projected field. Seeds are based loosely on current polls and the version of the Ratings Percentage Index used at CBSsportsline.com.