The Brackets Are Out

The pairings for the NCAA men's basketball tournament have been announced. They can be found here.

There were a few surprises along the way. I didn't expect North Carolina to receive a #1 seed, much less the #2 seed in the entire tournament. I also didn't expect Florida to be the top seed for the whole tournament.

The only teams that got in the tournament that I did not project are Arkansas and Stanford. Those are not surprising, as the Hogs made a big run in the SEC tournament, and the Cardinal didn't have any bad losses while going 10-8 in the tough Pac-10.

The only teams I had projected into the field that missed the tournament are Syracuse and Kansas State. I was mildly, but not totally surprised.

For what it's worth, I correctly projected 63 out of 65 teams in the field. I projected 44 out of 65 teams within one seed of what they received in the tournament.

The state of Texas came up big. 5 teams from Texas are in the field: Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, North Texas, and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. And they said this was a football state.

Bracket analysis to come during the week...

2007 NCAA Tournament Projections, Final Edition

Nothing really earth-shattering has happened in the world of college hoops in the last 18 hours. All the teams that were supposed to win have won, thus far. That includes Florida, North Carolina, Long Beach State, and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. The Big Ten and Big 12 championship games end too late to impact the bracket. The guys in Indianapolis are through with their bracket, so the positions of Ohio State, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Texas will not be affected by a win or loss this afternoon.

Top four seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Florida, Wisconsin
Last four teams in: Purdue, Kansas State, Illinois, Old Dominion
Last four teams out: Drexel, Missouri State, Air Force, Stanford

I'm not projecting them in the bracket, but don't be surprised to see Appalachian State in the Big Dance. They could be this year's 2006 Utah State (How did they get in?). That is, a team from way under the radar finding themselves on CBS during the Selection Show.

So, last night's bracket is today's bracket. Click on the graphic for more details.

2007 NCAA Tournament Projections, Late Saturday Night

After an active day, it's safe to post another batch of tournament projections. I will have one more projection posted tomorrow afternoon between 3 and 5 PM CDT. Click on the graphic for more details.

There are a couple of notable happenings at the top of the bracket. By making it to the Big Ten final, Wisconsin has the last #1 seed, according to my projection. The selection committee will have their decisions finalized before the end of Sunday's Big Ten championship game. UCLA's loss to Cal in the Pac-10 tournament cost them a #1 seed, unless Florida loses to Arkansas on Sunday. Also, Georgetown worked their way up to a #2 seed, by winning the Big East tournament in grand fashion.

At the bottom of the bracket, Florida A&M played their way into the Tuesday night opening round game by winning the MEAC tournament. I have them projected to play Central Connecticut State.

I love Drexel's team this year. They have 14 wins away from home. However, I'm afraid their bubble is about to burst. I want to be wrong on this. I have the final spot down to Old Dominion and conference mate Drexel. Old Dominion has two wins over Drexel, a higher conference finish, and a win at Georgetown. I think that will give them the tiniest of edges. If Arkansas and/or N.C. State win on Sunday, that makes two more bubble teams unhappy.

Last four in: Purdue, Illinois, Kansas State, Old Dominion
Last four out: Drexel, Missouri State, Air Force, Stanford

Cal Poly and Long Beach State are playing for the Big West title as I type. Auto-bids on the line Sunday include:

ACC: North Carolina vs. North Carolina State at Tampa
SEC: Florida vs. Arkansas at Atlanta
Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. Northwestern St. at Campbell Center, Houston
Big Ten: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin at Chicago
Big XII: Kansas vs. Texas at Oklahoma City

2007 NCAA Tournament Projections, Saturday

It's been a crazy day, but I think it's safe to post another round of projections. Click on the graphic for more details. The Florida Gators move back into a #1 seed, for now. UCLA drops to the last #1 seed, with Wisconsin breathing down their backs.

Power conference schools such as Purdue, Illinois, and Kansas State did themselves huge favors by winning on Friday. This is especially true after the favorites lost in the Atlantic 10 and the WAC, giving two at-large berths to Xavier and Nevada, which would have gone to someone else, like maybe Old Dominion or Missouri State.

Last four in: Purdue, Kansas State, Illinois, Drexel
Last four out: Old Dominion, Missouri State, Air Force, Stanford
Next four out: West Virginia, Florida State, Ole Miss, Mississippi State

The SEC is looking crazy, as Florida does its best to get through a group of upstarts remaining in the conference tournament. Next for the Gators: Ole Miss. Mississippi State and Arkansas lurk on the other side of the bracket. All three remaining SEC West teams are playing for their lives.

Saturday brings a plethora of semifinals and finals. Automatic bids will be determined in the following conferences:

America East: Albany at Vermont
Atlantic 10: Rhode Island vs. George Washington at Atlantic City
Big East: Georgetown vs. Pittsburgh at New York
Big West: Long Beach State vs. Cal Poly at Anaheim
Conference USA: Houston at Memphis
MAC: Miami (Ohio) vs. Akron at Cleveland
MEAC: Delaware State vs. Florida A&M at Raleigh, N.C.
Mountain West: BYU at UNLV
Pac-10: Oregon vs. USC at Staples Center, Los Angeles
SWAC: Jackson State vs. Mississippi Valley State at Birmingham, Ala.
WAC: Utah State at New Mexico State

2007 Bracket Projections, Friday

Some strange things happened on Thursday in Bracketville. Click on the graphic for more detail of the projected bracket.

UCLA inexplicably lost in overtime to the 8th place team in the Pac-10, Cal. I have not moved them from my projection, as I already had them as the 3rd #1 seed. I don't see them slipping past that spot, in spite of today's bad loss.

The team that hurt itself the most was Air Force. The Falcons lost to Wyoming today in Las Vegas, 77-72, knocking themselves out of the Mountain West tournament. Air Force has never won a post-season tournament game, either in the NCAA, the NIT, or a conference tournament. This is the third year in a row that the Zoomies have entered the MWC tournament with over 20 wins, only to lose in the first round. Air Force has lost four in a row. They will have a long next three days. I have them out of my projected bracket for now.

Say goodbye also to UMass. They lost an overtime game to the St. Louis Billikens, in the Atlantic 10 tournament in Atlantic City. The Minutemen were hoping to turn their 23 wins into at least an at-large bid. That looks doubtful, now. By the way, it's really unstable for St. Louis, the Gateway to the West, to be in a conference with Atlantic in the name. There's nothing Atlantic about St. Louis.

In Tampa, Duke and Maryland were both upset today in the ACC tournament. Both will make the Big Dance, but their seeding will suffer. By the way, it's weird to see the ACC tournament in Florida. But, it's good to spread it around every once in a while, and Tampa's a good place to have it.

One automatic bid will be decided on Friday. Bucknell plays at Holy Cross in the Patriot League final.

Last four in: Drexel, Missouri State, Syracuse, Illinois
Last four out: Air Force, Florida State, Purdue, Kansas State

Thursday's Bracket...

...is same as Wednesday's projected bracket. Well, almost. There were several games today, but none of them affected any projected seedings or at-large bids. The only changes affect the #16 seeds, as Weber State is playing themselves out of the play-in game. Actually, I believe the NCAA will keep them out West in the first round, rather than have them go to Dayton for a Tuesday night opening round game. Click on the graphic for more details.

Central Connecticut State, as projected, won the Northeast Conference tonight, and Weber State is pasting Northern Arizona as I write, to win the Big Sky championship. Both teams are competing with each other for a spot opposite the SWAC champion in next Tuesday's play-in game in Dayton, Ohio. Their computer profiles are practically alike. If CCSU and Cream o' Weber are lucky, a really sorry team will come out of nowhere and win their conference tournament, giving said sorry team the trip to Dayton.

Syracuse and West Virginia both won Big East tournament games in New York today, preserving their precarious spots in the field, for now. A lot can change in the next 72 hours.

Conference tournaments will be in full swing on Thursday, as the ACC, Big 10, SEC, Big XII, and Pac-10, among others, kick off their tournaments. No automatic bids are up for grabs on Thursday.