Tournament Field Projections

Championship Week, presented by Dick’s Sporting Goods, is in full swing. Four conferences pass out automatic bids to the NCAA men’s basketball tournament tonight: Colonial, Metro Atlantic, Southern, and West Coast. The field of 65 is starting to fill up.

This week, this blog will provide a daily projection of teams set to go to the Big Dance. I will not have a bracket projection until next Sunday before the bracket comes out. Here is a conference-by-conference breakdown (automatic qualifiers in bold):

ACC
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech
UNC is ranked #1 in the country and won the regular season in the ACC. What counts on Tobacco Road, however, is the ACC Tournament, the nation’s oldest post-season tournament. UNC, Duke, and Clemson are lead-pipe locks. Miami should make it, but they need a win in the ACC tournament to make it official. Virginia Tech is in for now, but needs a win or two this week to cinch it up.

America East
In: Winner of conference championship game
Either Maryland-Baltimore County or Hartford will qualify for their first NCAA tournament with a win. UMBC won the regular season and will thus host the championship game against Hartford.

Atlantic Sun
In: Belmont
The Bruins won their third A-Sun tournament in a row to qualify for the Big Dance.

Atlantic 10
In: Xavier, UMass
On the bubble: St. Joseph’s, Temple, Dayton
Xavier is not on the Atlantic coast, and the conference has more than 10 teams, but the X-men are a sure thing for the NCAA tournament. UMass has finished strong, and has a strong non-conference schedule, helping them to make the field. The Minutemen need a strong showing in the conference tournament to stay in the field of 65. St. Joseph’s, Temple, and Dayton are barely on the outside looking in, for now. I’d be shocked if Xavier won this post-season tournament, so the A-10 will possibly get three bids.

Big 12
In: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M
The Big 12 is strong this year. UT and KU still have a slight chance for #1 seeds. OU and K-State are safely in the tournament. Baylor and A&M are in the tournament, as well, barring 1st round tournament losses to Colorado and Iowa State.

Big East
In: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Connecticut, West Virginia, Pittsburgh
On the bubble: Villanova, Syracuse
16 teams are just way too many for one conference. This group of schools would probably squeeze out a couple more bids if they weren’t in the same conference. As it stands now, Villanova and Syracuse need to make some noise at the post-season tournament in New York.

Big Sky
In: Post-season tournament champion
Portland State won the regular season, and will host the conference tournament at the cavernous (for this event) Rose Garden in Portland.

Big South
In: Winthrop
The Eagles won their eighth Big South tournament title and the accompanying trip to the Tournament.

Big West
In: Post-season tournament champion
UC-Santa Barbara, Cal State-Northridge, and Cal State-Fullerton tied for the regular season title. The tournament will be played at the neutral site of the Anaheim Convention Center, across the street from Disneyland. The winner will be a #15 or #16 seed in the Big Dance.

Colonial
In: William & Mary or George Mason
On the Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth
VCU’s hopes were put in serious jeopardy Sunday with a loss to Bill & Mary. The Tribe have never made the NCAA tournament, and have won three close games to make tonight’s Colonial final. If they are fortunate enough to win a fourth, they could well be in Dayton next Tuesday night for an opening round game. Remember George Mason? They stand a good chance to return to the Big Dance with a win tonight. I’d be shocked if the Patriots didn’t win.

Conference USA
In: Memphis
On the Bubble: UAB, Houston
Memphis owns this conference, lock, stock, and barrel. They could do their conference a favor by purposely losing in this tournament (on their home court) and allowing another team to earn the automatic bid. That will be this conference’s best chance to get two teams in the NCAA tournament. UAB is the best of the rest, but the Blazers were drilled at Memphis in their last game.

Horizon
In: Butler
With a chance: Cleveland State
The Bulldogs won the regular season in the Horizon League, and host Cleveland State in the championship game Tuesday night. Butler has been in the top 25 all season, and should be in the Big Dance regardless. Cleveland State could help themselves and their conference by stealing the auto-bid with a win.

Ivy
In: Cornell
There is no post-season tournament in this league, and the Big Red have run away with the regular season title.

Metro Atlantic
In: Rider or Siena
The auto-bid will be decided tonight in Albany in the tournament final between regular-season champion Rider and home-standing Siena.

Mid-American
In: Kent State
This is always a wide-open, entertaining tournament. Kent State should be in the Big Dance as long as they don’t implode in the post-season tournament. The MAC could get a second bid if Kent State gets to the finals and loses.

Mid-Eastern
In: Post-season tournament champion
Morgan State is the regular season champion. Anyone could win this thing. The conference looks strong enough to keep its champion out of the opening-round game, but the winner of this tournament will probably be a #16 seed.

Missouri Valley
In: Drake, Illinois State
Drake is in its first NCAA tournament in 37 years, and rolled through the regular season and post-season tournament. Illinois State was pounded by Drake in the tournament final, and will be sweating on Selection Sunday.

Mountain West
In: BYU, UNLV
On the bubble: New Mexico
BYU won the regular season, and is a lock for the field of 65. UNLV is in my projected field at this time, but needs at least one win on their home court this week in the MWC tournament. New Mexico is squarely on the bubble, and needs a strong run this week in Las Vegas, along with help in other places.

Northeast
In: Mt. St. Mary’s or Sacred Heart
This is one of my favorite conferences, because there’s nothing big-time about it. The winner of this game will probably be in Dayton next Tuesday night for the opening round game. The Mount finished fourth in the regular season, but upset regular season champion Robert Morris over the weekend. Sacred Heart has never made the Big Dance in their short time in Division I.

Ohio Valley
In: Austin Peay
The Governors appear in the Big Dance once again after winning the OVC regular season and tournament. Get ready for the cheer, coming to an arena somewhere in this tournament: “Let’s Go Peay!”

Pac-10
In: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona State, Oregon
On the Bubble: Arizona

UCLA won the regular season, and is a favorite to win the national championship. This has been a strong year in the Pac 10, and Stanford, Wazzu, and USC have nothing to worry about next Sunday. Arizona State, Oregon, and Arizona need good performances this week at the Staples Center in L.A. At this point, I have Arizona State and Oregon in the tournament over Arizona based on head-to-head performance and conference record. The Wildcats can save their season this week in Los Angeles.

Patriot
In: Colgate or American
Let’s see: Toothpaste, or our country? American has knocked on the door in this league for several years, but hasn’t quite made the NCAA tournament. This is their year, with the championship game on their home court.

SEC
In: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Florida
On the Bubble: Ole Miss

The Vols are looking at a #1 seed if they don’t mess things up this week at the SEC tournament. Vandy is pretty stout, Kentucky has made a strong comeback, while MSU and Arky are tournament teams in the West. The Florida Gators are in deep doo-doo. I have them barely in the field, but that could change depending on events this week. Ole Miss was awesome and undefeated in non-conference play, went into the tank for most of conference play, but has made a comeback in recent weeks. The Rebels could play their way into the field this week.

Southern
In: Davidson or Elon
The Wildcats took on all comers in the non-conference portion of their schedule, playing everyone except the Charlotte Bobcats. They then went on to go 20-0 in the SoCon, followed by two wins in the post-season tournament. Elon is 14-18, with three upset wins in the post-season tournament in Charleston. If Elon beats Davidson tonight, I’ll stand on my head. Lead-pipe lock of the night: Davidson

Southland
In: Post-season tournament champion
This will be a fun tournament at the Merrell Center in Katy (By the way, the Houston area has several high school arenas that a lot of colleges would kill for). Lamar and Stephen F. Austin won the two divisions, while Sam Houston will be a force to be reckoned with, as well. The winner of this tournament would be a good choice for a first-round NCAA upset, following Northwestern State’s win in 2006 and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi’s near-miss last year.

Summit
In: Post-season tournament champion
Another tournament played in a first-class high school arena, at Union High School in Tulsa. Oral Roberts, located just down the street, won the regular season and is favored to win the tournament again. IUPUI and Oakland could both make some noise here, though.

Sun Belt
In: South Alabama, Western Kentucky
Both USA and WKU have been strong this year, and should both make the Field of 65 if they both make the final in this conference tournament. If one of them lose, they slip to bubble status. This tournament is being played in Mobile, home of USA.

SWAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This conference of HBCUs spends December getting hammered for paychecks by bigger-name schools. Alabama State has rebounded to run away with the league and to sport a winning record, if not a high power rating. The winner here stands a good chance of getting an all-expenses paid trip to Dayton, Ohio for the opening round of the NCAA tournament.

WAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This is a down year for the WAC, and the conference will probably only get one bid to this year’s tournament. WAC teams such as Nevada, Utah State, and New Mexico State have made noise in the Big Dance in recent years. Boise State is the regular season champion. The tournament is being played on New Mexico State’s home court in Las Cruces.

West Coast
In: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
The Zags have made yet another conference final. Their opponent tonight is San Diego, winners over conference co-favorite St. Mary’s. The tournament is being played on USD’s home court at Jenny Craig Pavilion, aka the “Slim Gym”. San Diego could make a bubble team’s life miserable with a win tonight.

Last four teams in (cheering for teams like Gonzaga and Butler this week): Arizona State, Western Kentucky, Florida, Oregon

Last four teams out (need to help themselves this week and hope for help from others): New Mexico, Arizona, Ole Miss, Virginia Commonwealth

Updates daily during Championship Week….