More Bowl Projections

Every week in college football brings the unexpected. Last week was no exception, as BCS #2 Oregon and BCS #4 Oklahoma were defeated, throwing the BCS into even more chaos. Here are this blog’s latest bowl projections.

This list projects LSU as the winner of the SEC championship game. It also projects Missouri to defeat Kansas this week, and to go on to defeat Oklahoma or Texas in the Big 12 championship game. Sorry, as I like the Fighting Manginos, and I love the Sooners, but Mizzou is playing more than well enough to beat both teams. Mizzou would use wins over those two teams to leap past West Virginia into a spot in the national championship game.

Hawaii is 15th in the BCS this week. Even with a win over Boise State, the Warriors probably will not get the votes or computer points they need to finish in the top 12 of the BCS. They really need Connecticut to beat West Virginia this week and win the Big East. A non-BCS conference champion can also qualify for the BCS if they finish in the top 16 and ahead of a qualifying conference champion.

Projections:

BCS NCG: LSU vs. Missouri
Rose: Arizona State vs. Ohio State
Orange: Virginia vs. West Virginia
Fiesta: Oregon vs. Kansas
Sugar: Georgia vs. Virginia Tech

Capital One: Michigan vs. Florida
Cotton: Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
Outback: Illinois vs. Auburn
Gator: Texas Tech vs. Clemson
Holiday: Texas vs. USC
Chick-Fil-A: Kentucky vs. Florida State
Alamo: Texas A&M vs. Wisconsin
Sun: Oregon State vs. Connecticut
Champs Sports: Boston College vs. Penn State
Liberty: UCF vs. Arkansas
Independence: Mississippi State vs. Nebraska
Insight: Oklahoma State vs. Indiana
Motor City: Michigan State vs. Miami, Ohio
Meineke Car Care: Cincinnati vs. Wake Forest
Las Vegas: BYU vs. Purdue (Pac 10 without enough qualifying teams)
Armed Forces: Air Force vs. Houston
GMAC: Central Michigan vs. Tulsa
Poinsettia: Navy vs. Utah
Humanitarian: Boise State vs. Iowa (ACC without enough qualifying teams)
Papajohn’s: Memphis vs. Ball State
New Orleans: East Carolina vs. Troy
Texas: South Florida vs. TCU (Big 12 without enough qualifying teams)
Emerald: California vs. N.C. State
International: Bowling Green vs. Rutgers
New Mexico: Fresno State vs. New Mexico
Hawaii: Hawaii vs. South Carolina (C-USA without enough qualifying teams)

NFL Predictions, Part 4

Lost in the shuffle of the exciting college football weekend are the last installment of NFL projections. These come from the AFC South and West divisions.

The Indianapolis Colts return as defending Super Bowl champions. They will wear a large target on their back. Nonetheless, they should overwhelm the other teams in the AFC South. Tennessee rode the legs of Vince Young to 8 wins last season, and look to finish just short of the playoffs this season, as well. Jacksonville is changing quarterbacks, as Byron Leftwich has been let go in favor of David Garrard. The Houston Texans aren't totally hopeless, but they are hapless until proven otherwise.

AFC South Projections
Indianapolis 11-5
Tennessee 10-6
Jacksonville 8-8
Houston 5-11

The AFC West is both a feast and a famine. On one end, you have the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers. Both teams look strong this season. On the other end, you have the atrocious Oakland Raiders, who are projected to win one game. The sorriness of the Raiders will help the records of the Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs.

AFC West Projections
Denver 12-4
San Diego 12-4
Kansas City 10-6
Oakland 1-15

NFL Predictions, Part 3

As promised, after a long wait, this blog's projections for the AFC are now ready.

The strength of the NFL is definitely in the AFC. While the NFC has several good-but-not-great teams, the AFC has some beasts. There are teams here that would be Super Bowl contenders in the NFC but will struggle to make the playoffs in the AFC.

In the AFC East, the New England Patriots improved themselves with the addition of WR Randy Moss. This combined with a weak East division gives the Patriots a cakewalk into the playoffs. The New York Jets will be competitive, and would really like to trade places with the Giants to be in the NFC. Some pick Buffalo to be decent. I don't. Their schedule really works against them. Miami will be woeful.

AFC East Projections
New England 12-4
NY Jets 7-9
Buffalo 3-13
Miami 2-14

The AFC North looks to be really, really strong. The Baltimore Ravens will ride their defense to a dominating season. Right behind them will be the rebounding Cincinnati Bengals with their high-flying offense. Pittsburgh will be pretty good, but would be a Super Bowl contender in the NFC. Cleveland will be pathetic.

AFC North Projections
Baltimore 13-3
Cincinnati 12-4
Pittsburgh 9-7
Cleveland 4-12

In a later post, this blog will look at the AFC South and West divisions.

NFL Projections, Part 2

Today, as promised, this blog will project the South and West divisions of the NFC.

The New Orleans Saints, last year's feel-good story, return for more as they look to defend their division championship. The Saints will successfully defend that title and return to the playoffs. They also have a good chance to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, behind QB Drew Brees and RB Reggie Bush.

The Carolina Panthers will bounce back strongly this season to contend for a playoff spot. Tampa Bay will be mediocre, and the Atlanta Falcons will wallow in the damage brought on by soon-to-be convicted felon Michael Vick.

Projected Standings:

New Orleans 12-4
Carolina 11-5
Tampa Bay 4-12
Atlanta 3-13

The West division has been touted by some as the most improved division in football. I'll believe it when I see it.

The Seattle Seahawks will be the class of the division once again. San Francisco showed a lot of improvement last season, but will slip back this year. St. Louis will have a high-flying offense, and not much more (they better have a high-flying offense, as I have Marc Bulger as QB in both of my fantasy leagues). The Arizona Cardinals will be the Cardinals once again, showing flashes of brilliance and not much else.

Projected Standings:

Seattle 10-6
St. Louis 7-9
Arizona 6-10
San Francisco 5-11

NFL Projections, Part 1

I apologize for the delay between posts. I've been out of town for work, and had family in from out of town this week.

As promised, this blog will also project results for the National Football League. Picking a 16-game season in advance is a lot trickier than projecting college football results. There is a lot more parity in the NFL, and a horrible team one year can be a good team the next.

We will begin in the NFC. Today, this blog will project the NFC East and NFC Central.

In the East, the Philadelphia Eagles will once again be the team to beat, with quarterback Donovan McNabb and running back Brian Westbrook. But, right with them will be the Dallas Cowboys, with new head coach Wade Phillips. The New York Giants look to slip just a bit, while the Washington Redskins will be hapless as long as Daniel Snyder owns the team.

NFC East Projections:
Philadelphia 11-5
Dallas 11-5
NY Giants 7-9
Washington 5-11
(Philadelphia wins the division on a tiebreaker)

In the Central, the Chicago Bears return to defend their NFC championship. The Bears look to be good once again, in spite of quarterback Rex Grossman. Detroit will be much-improved, while the Green Bay Packers will be fair to mediocre. The Minnesota Vikings are projected to bring up the rear here.

NFC Central Projections:
Chicago 11-5
Detroit 7-9
Green Bay 7-9
Minnesota 6-10

Next: NFC South, NFC West

2007 NCAA Tournament Projections, Wednesday Edition

Or, tomorrow's brackets today. Of course, if you're in the Eastern Time Zone, then it is tomorrow, because it is after 11 PM in Houston. Click on the image for more detail.

No major changes to the bracket, unless you're a fan of the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue was knocked out of the bracket by Wright State's win in the Horizon League tournament tonight. No sweat for the Boilers, because 1) this is one man's bracket, and I'm not on the selection committee, and 2) they have the Big Ten tournament this week, to prove their worth. Also, Butler fell from a #6 to a #7 seed, which resulted in some shuffling among other teams.

The other two new automatic qualifiers, Oral Roberts and North Texas, were already in my projected bracket.

Wednesday brings a flood of first-round tournament action in various conferences, plus two more automatic bids:

Northeast: Central Connecticut State vs. Sacred Heart
Big Sky: Northern Arizona vs. Weber State

Both of those games are most likely for the right to play a team such as Ohio State in the first round. The Big Sky winner may be a candidate for the Tuesday night play-in game, as their computer rankings are really low in relation to the other qualifiers.

2007 NCAA Tournament Projections, Tuesday Edition

Here is today's installment of bracket projections. Click on the graphic for more detail.

Last four in: Drexel, Missouri State, West Virginia, Syracuse
Last four out: Kansas State, UMass, Clemson, Florida State

Congratulations to last night's winners of automatic bids: VCU, Gonzaga, and Niagara.

Tonight, three more bids are on the line:

Horizon League: Butler vs. Wright State. This game is on Wright State's homecourt. Wright State tied with Butler for the league title, and swept the regular season series. The Raiders are dangerous.
Mid-Continent: Oral Roberts vs. Oakland. This one is being played just down the street from ORU, at Union High School in Tulsa. The John Q. Hammons Arena is not your normal high school gym, but a modern, 5600 seat arena that a lot of colleges would die for. ORU is heavily favored, but OU of Michigan upset the Golden Eagles two years ago in the finals. Oakland has a better team this year.
Sun Belt: North Texas vs. Arkansas State. Do you believe in the Mean Green? The winner is one game away from a probable #16 seed in the NCAA tournament. Arkansas State is so low in the computers (#179 yesterday), they may be a candidate for next Tuesday's play-in game in Dayton.

2007 NCAA Tournament Projections

Updated NCAA Tournament projections:

St. Louis Regional East Rutherford Regional

(1st-2nd round, Lexington) (1st-2nd round, Chicago)
1) Ohio State 1) Wisconsin
16) East Tennessee State 16) Central Conn. St.-Jackson State

8) Tennessee 8) Arizona
9) Oklahoma State 9) Virginia Tech

(1st-2nd round, Chicago) (1st-2nd round, Columbus)
5) Duke 5) Vanderbilt
12) Michigan State 12) Xavier

4) Marquette 4) Butler
13) Winthrop 13) Holy Cross

(1st-2nd round, Sacramento) (1st-2nd round, Buffalo)
6) Alabama 6) Oregon
11) Clemson 11) Texas Tech

3) Washington State 3) Pittsburgh
14) Long Beach State 14) Vermont

(1st-2nd round, New Orleans) (1st-2nd round, New Orleans)
7) Louisville 7) UNLV
10) Creighton 10) Villanova

2) Texas A&M 2) Memphis
15) Austin Peay 15) South Alabama

San Jose Regional San Antonio Regional

(1st-2nd round, Sacramento) (1st-2nd round, Winston-Salem)
1) UCLA 1) Florida
16) Weber State 16) Delaware State

8) Indiana 8) Maryland
9) Boston College 9) Purdue

(1st-2nd round, Lexington) (1st-2nd round, Spokane)
5) Texas 5) West Virginia
12) VCU 12) Appalachian State

4) Southern Illinois 4) Air Force
13) Akron 13) Santa Clara

(1st-2nd round, Buffalo) (1st-2nd round, Spokane)
6) BYU 6) Virginia
11) Kansas State 11) Old Dominion

3) Georgetown 3) Nevada
14) Penn 14) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

(1st-2nd round, Winston-Salem) (1st-2nd round, Columbus)
7) Kentucky 7) Notre Dame
10) Illinois 10) Bradley

2) North Carolina 2) Kansas
15) Oral Roberts 15) Marist

2007 NCAA Tournament Projections

We are a month away from the NCAA tournament, and a lot of things can still happen, and probably will. These pairings are always in flux, and seeds will fluctuate drastically for some teams. At this point, I have nine teams from the Big East, and seven teams from the ACC projected to be in the field of 65. I don't expect that form to hold.

Here is this week's installment of NCAA Tournament projections:

East Rutherford Regional San Antonio Regional

(1st-2nd round, New Orleans) (1st-2nd round, Lexington)
1) Florida 1) Ohio State
16) Weber State-Miss. Valley State 16) East Tennessee State

8) Clemson 8) BYU
9) Creighton 9) Virginia

(1st-2nd round, Spokane) (1st-2nd round, Columbus)
5) Air Force 5) Arizona
12) Texas 12) Winthrop

4) Oregon 4) Georgetown
13) Providence 13) Davidson

(1st-2nd round, Spokane) (1st-2nd round, Sacramento)
6) USC 6) Boston College
11) VCU 11) Gonzaga

3) Kansas 3) Nevada
14) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 14) Long Beach State

(1st-2nd round, Lexington) (1st-2nd round, New Orleans)
7) West Virginia 7) Alabama
10) Maryland 10) Illinois

2) Memphis 2) Texas A&M
15) Austin Peay 15) South Alabama

San Jose Regional St. Louis Regional

(1st-2nd round, Winston-Salem) (1st-2nd round, Chicago)
1) North Carolina 1) Wisconsin
16) Marist 16) Delaware State

8) Tennessee 8) Villanova
9) Old Dominion 9) Florida State

(1st-2nd round, Winston-Salem) (1st-2nd round, Buffalo)
5) Oklahoma State 5) Kentucky
12) Stanford 12) Appalachian State

4) Butler 4) Southern Illinois
13) Syracuse 13) Holy Cross

(1st-2nd round, Chicago) (1st-2nd round, Columbus)
6) Indiana 6) Virginia Tech
11) Louisville 11) Kansas State

3) Marquette 3) Washington State
14) Vermont 14) Oral Roberts

(1st-2nd round, Sacramento) (1st-2nd round, Buffalo)
7) Duke 7) UNLV
10) Missouri State 10) Xavier

2) UCLA 2) Pittsburgh
15) Penn 15) Akron

NCAA Tournament Projections

Latest edition of NCAA tournament projections, based on AP and Coaches polls, and the latest RPI..

San Antonio Regional
(1st-2nd rounds-New Orleans)
1) Florida
16)Central Conn St/Marist

8) Clemson
9) Texas Tech

(1st-2nd rounds-Spokane)
5) Southern Illinois
12)Davidson

4) Oregon
13)Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

(1st-2nd rounds-Columbus)
6) Indiana
11)Arkansas

3) Kansas
14)Vermont

(1st-2nd rounds-Lexington)
6) Notre Dame
11)Maryland

2) Memphis
15)Long Beach State


East Rutherford Regional

(1st-2nd rounds-Lexington)
1) Ohio State
16)East Tennessee State

8) Gonzaga
9) West Virginia

(1st-2nd rounds-Sacramento)
5) USC
12)Xavier

4) Nevada
13)Holy Cross

(1st-2nd rounds-Chicago)
6) Texas
11)Tennessee

3) Marquette
14)South Alabama

(1st-2nd rounds-Winston-Salem)
7) Stanford
10)BYU

2) North Carolina
15)Delaware State


San Jose Regional

(1st-2nd rounds-Sacramento)
1) UCLA
16)Weber State

8) UNLV
9) Creighton

(1st-2nd rounds-Winston-Salem)
5) Alabama
12)Virginia

4) Duke
13)UMass

(1st-2nd rounds-Buffalo)
6) Georgetown
11)Michigan State

3) Butler
14)Akron

(1st-2nd rounds-New Orleans)
7) Vanderbilt
10)Boston College

2) Texas A&M
15)Penn


St. Louis Regional

(1st-2nd rounds-Chicago)
1) Wisconsin
16)Jackson State

8) Villanova
9) Virginia Tech

(1st-2nd rounds-Lexington)
5) Washington State
12)Illinois

4) Oklahoma State
13)Winthrop

(1st-2nd rounds-Spokane)
6) Kentucky
11)Purdue

3) Air Force
14)Oral Roberts

(1st-2nd rounds-Buffalo)
7) Florida State
10)Kansas State

2) Pittsburgh
15)Austin Peay

2007 NCAA Tournament Projections

Here is the first installment of my NCAA men's basketball tournament projections for the year. This and $4.50 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

I didn't use a set formula, as I have done in the past, but used a combination of the AP and Coaches polls and a replication of the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) to qualify and seed teams. Seeds can and will change as the season plays out. Teams will drop in and drop out. Plus, there are some things that cannot be explained, just as some seedings cannot be explained by the selection committee when those brackets come out in March.

Enjoy...

San Antonio Regional
(1st-2nd round: New Orleans)
(1) Florida
(16) Loyola MD
or Delaware State

(8) USC
(9) Texas Tech
(1st-2nd round: Columbus)
(5) Butler
(12) New Mexico State

(4) Virginia Tech
(13) VCU
(1st-2nd round: Spokane)
(3) Texas A&M
(14) Cal State-Fullerton

(6) Arizona
(11) Creighton
(1st-2nd round: Winston-Salem)
(7) Indiana
(10) BYU

(2) Duke
(15) Holy Cross

San Jose Regional
(1st-2nd round: Lexington)
(1) Ohio State
(16) Jackson State

(8) Southern Illinois
(9) Florida State
(1st-2nd round: Buffalo)
(5) Alabama
(12) Oral Roberts

(4) Oklahoma State
(13) Davidson
(1st-2nd round: Chicago)
(3) Marquette
(14) Penn

(6) Clemson
(11) West Virginia
(1st-2nd round: Sacramento)
(7) UNLV
(10) Louisville

(2) UCLA
(15) E. Tennessee State

East Rutherford Regional
(1st-2nd round: Winston-Salem)
(1) North Carolina
(16) Weber State


(8) West Virginia
(9) Michigan State
(1st-2nd round: Columbus)
(5) Washington State
(12) Wichita State

(4) Nevada
(13) Akron
(1st-2nd round: Lexington)
(3) Memphis
(14) South Alabama

(6) Vanderbilt
(11) Michigan
(1st-2nd round: New Orleans)
(7) Georgetown
(10) Arkansas

(2) Kansas
(15) Vermont

St. Louis Regional
(1st-2nd round: Chicago)
(1) Wisconsin
(16) Central Conn. State

(8) Stanford
(9) Boston College
(1st-2nd round: Sacramento)
(5) Notre Dame
(12) Missouri State

(4) Air Force
(13) Winthrop
(1st-2nd round: Spokane)
(3) Oregon
(14) Austin Peay

(6) Texas
(11) George Washington
(1st-2nd round: Buffalo)
(7) Kentucky
(10) Gonzaga

(2) Pittsburgh
(15) Texas A&M-C.C.

NCAA Tournament Projections

In the middle of all this football, there is a college basketball season going on. Here are this week's projected bids:

(by conference)
America East (1): Vermont
ACC (5): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Maryland
Atlantic Sun (1): East Tennessee State
Atlantic 10 (1): UMass
Big East (8): Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Providence, Louisville, West Virginia, Marquette, Louisville
Big Sky (1): Idaho State
Big South (1): Winthrop
Big 10 (5): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan
Big XII (5): Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
Big West (1): Cal State-Fullerton
Colonial (1): VCU
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Butler
Ivy (1): Penn
MAAC (1): Marist
MAC (1): Akron
Mid-Continent (1): Oral Roberts
Mid-Eastern (1): Delaware State
Missouri Valley (3): Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Southern Illinois
Mountain West (3): Air Force, Colorado State, UNLV
Northeast (1): Sacred Heart
Ohio Valley (1): Austin Peay
Pac 10 (5): USC, Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, Washington State
Patriot (1): Holy Cross
SEC (6): Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Vanderbilt
Southern (1): Davidson
Southland (1): Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
SWAC (1): Texas Southern
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Santa Clara
WAC (2): Nevada, New Mexico State

Seeding projections will begin in February.

The Field of 65: Early Projections

Better late than never, but I am going to begin projecting teams for the upcoming NCAA men’s basketball tournament. I am not going to start predicting seeds until February. It is hard to do projections before now, because of the inconsistency of computer ratings and the variety of non-conference schedules. Conference play brings out the best in teams, and offers a peek at a team’s true strength.

This will be a weekly feature. Here goes my first shot at picking the field of 65:

(by conference)
America East (1): Vermont
ACC (5): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Maryland
Atlantic Sun (1): Belmont
Atlantic 10 (1): UMass
Big East (8): Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Providence, Louisville, West Virginia, UConn, Marquette
Big Sky (1): Weber State
Big South (1): Winthrop
Big 10 (5): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State
Big XII (5): Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
Big West (1): Cal State-Fullerton
Colonial (2): VCU, Old Dominion
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Butler
Ivy (1): Penn
MAAC (1): Marist
MAC (1): Ohio
Mid-Continent (1): Oral Roberts
Mid-Eastern (1): Delaware State
Missouri Valley (4): Creighton, Missouri State, Wichita State, Southern Illinois
Mountain West (2): Air Force, BYU
Northeast (1): Fairleigh Dickinson
Ohio Valley (1): Austin Peay
Pac 10 (5): USC, Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, Washington State
Patriot (1): Holy Cross
SEC (6): Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas
Southern (1): Davidson
Southland (1): Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
SWAC (1): Jackson State
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
West Coast (1): Gonzaga
WAC (2): Nevada, New Mexico State