Big XII Rumblings, Part 3

The Big XII is a young conference, moving into its twelfth year. It does not have the tradition of conferences such as the Big Ten or SEC. Eight of the schools were together in the Big Eight, while the four Texas schools were together in the Southwest Conference. It was a marriage of convenience and survival, and has been rocky at times.

Issues such as revenue sharing raise their ugly head, and the schools have to consider their options, if they are not happy with the direction of the conference. This blog post is purely speculation. I’m just a guy in Texas with a computer and an internet connection. I have no inside information, just analysis.

I will preface this with two statements: 1) As an OU fan, I miss the days of the old Big 8. Native Texans miss the Southwest Conference. But, those days aren’t coming back. The two sides need each other. Which leads to my second statement: 2) Any talk of a conference breakup is preposterous. These schools are better off together than apart.

However, it is fun to speculate. Each school has something to offer. Some have more to offer than others. Where could they go? Would they go?

In this, the 21st century, conference affiliation is determined by the ability to generate revenue, and institutional fit.

The two biggest indicators of revenue-generating ability are football attendance (ticket sales), and TV market size (to add value to TV contracts). I will keep those in mind as I evaluate the possibilities for each school.

Institutional fit describes similarity with other institutions. The Big Ten is both an athletic conference and an academic consortium, made up of large flagship state universities and Northwestern, the lone private school. The conference values perceived academic reputation as much as they do butts in seats for football games. The Pac-10 has similar institutional values, with USC and Stanford serving as the lone private schools. The SEC, on the other hand, values academics, but does not have the culture of academic elitism. It is made up of Southern state flagship schools and Vanderbilt, the most prestigious private school in the South.

Attendance figures are taken from the NCAA website. My first analysis will be of Big XII North schools. The South will be discussed in a later post.

Pros and cons for each member:

Colorado
2006 Average Football Attendance: 46,048
TV Market: Denver (18)
Where could they go? Pac-10
What do they have to offer? Similar culture to western schools. Could partner with Utah to make the Pac-10 a 12-team conference, opening up the possibility of a football championship game. Have already unofficially been offered membership in the 90’s.
What’s the holdup? Competes with four major professional sports franchises in Denver market. Fan base is not as large as size of school or state would suggest. Facilities are behind the rest of their current conference-example: no indoor practice facility for football.

Iowa State
2006 Average Football Attendance: 46,171
TV Market: Des Moines (73) (also offers Cedar Rapids, Sioux City, and Omaha markets)
Where could they go? Big Ten (based on geography)
What do they have to offer? Membership in prestigious Association of American Universities (AAU), as all other Big Ten schools are. Proximity to Iowa and Minnesota.
What’s the holdup? Smallest athletic budget in Big XII, would also have smallest budget in Big Ten. Does not add TV markets, as Iowa already brings Iowa TV markets to the Big Ten, though all of those markets are small.

Kansas
2006 Average Football Attendance: 44,137
TV Market: Kansas City (31) (also offers Wichita and Topeka markets)
Where could they go? Big Ten (only as a package deal with Missouri and/or Nebraska)
What do they have to offer? Traditionally strong men’s basketball program, in top 5 all time. Key part of Kansas City TV market. School is a member of AAU-important to Big Ten.
What’s the holdup? The Big Ten would look at four or five other schools before looking at KU. Kansas legislature would frown on any deal that would not also benefit Kansas State. Traditionally mediocre football program.

Kansas State
2006 Average Football Attendance: 46,693
TV Market: Topeka (138) (also offers Kansas City and Wichita markets)
Where could they go? Nowhere, really.
What to they have to offer? Recently strong football program.
What’s the holdup? Everything. Remote location, smallest state with two BCS programs, small TV markets. In tough position, having too large a program for a smaller conference, but having the second-smallest budget in the Big XII.

Missouri
2006 Average Football Attendance: 55,918
TV Market: Columbia-Jefferson City (139) (also offers St. Louis, Kansas City, Springfield, Joplin, and Cape Girardeau)
Where could they go? Big Ten
What do they have to offer? Location bordering Illinois and Iowa. St. Louis (21st) and Kansas City (31st) TV markets. Member of AAU, like Big Ten schools.
What’s the holdup? The Big Ten is waiting on Notre Dame. If they decide to expand without Notre Dame, Mizzou is a leading candidate. But, Mizzou is really an underachiever, as the only Division I-A school in a state with over 5 million people.

Nebraska
2006 Average Football Attendance: 85,044
TV Market: Lincoln (104) (also offers Omaha, Sioux City, and the rest of Nebraska)
Where could they go? Big Ten
What do they have to offer? Historical Top 10 football program, with fanatical following and national recognition. Money generated by football supports strong all-around athletic program. Borders Big Ten state of Iowa. Member of AAU.
What’s the holdup? Big Ten has a line of more convenient options. However, Nebraska brings a lot to the table, and is considering options in case they become unhappy with Big XII revenue sharing/generation.