The South Is Where It's At

At the halfway point of the college football season, we find:

• There are ten undefeated teams remaining in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
• Five of those teams are in BCS conferences.
• Three of them are in the Big 12 South division: Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State.
• Oklahoma only fell to #4 in the latest AP writers’ poll. However, they have the worst record in the state. Oklahoma State and Tulsa remain undefeated.
• It’s early, but OU is not only #4 in the nation, but #4 in the South division standings after two weeks of conference play.
• The Big 12 South Division contains four of the top eight teams in this week’s poll: #1 Texas, #4 OU, #7 Texas Tech, and #8 OSU.

This is an incredible geographical concentration of football excellence. Oklahoma State joined this dogpile with an upset at previously third-ranked Missouri, 28-23.

Poor Baylor. The Bears have to play all these teams. Likewise for Texas A&M. However, if there was ever a year for A&M to stink, this is it, as they would have a hard time with these teams regardless.

Missouri and Kansas this week must fight for the honor of the North division in trips to Texas and OU, respectively. The rest of the North division looks relatively weak, though Nebraska nearly shocked Texas Tech in Lubbock on Saturday.

These teams should do a good job of knocking each other off in the last two months of the season, keeping one out of the BCS national championship game. The team with the best shot of appearing in Miami appears to be Penn State. The Nittany Lions are undefeated and are the best team in a weak Big Ten conference. Who will play them? Who knows. Alabama is strong and still undefeated, but must finish their SEC schedule. If USC can keep from farting around in the Pac-10, they have a good chance to get back to that #2 spot. Or, if a team survives the Big 12 with only one loss, they have a chance to be in Miami as well. In that case, Texas is in the driver’s seat.

The only guaranteed thing remaining in this college football season is change. Stay tuned.

College Football Projections: Big XII

Last, but definitely not least, is the Big 12.

The Big XII last season saw a slight shift in power from the South to the North. Oklahoma won the conference title, but Kansas and Missouri both finished in the top 10 in the nation. KU won the Orange Bowl over Virginia Tech, while Missouri should have been in a BCS bowl ahead of KU based on their head-to-head win and North division championship. Oklahoma and Missouri should be good once again.

In the North, many observers believe that Missouri may have their best team ever. This is Missouri we’re dealing with here, so anything could happen. But, they have a good chance to be favored in every game they play, including road trips to Nebraska and Texas. Plus, if they make it that far, the Big XII championship game is on the frozen tundra of Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

Nebraska begins the Bo Pelini era four years too late. But, it’s better late than never. The Huskers will be vastly improved.

Kansas caught lightning in a bottle last year and went 11-1 with a win in the Orange Bowl. This year, the Jayhawks should be pretty good, but they will be hardpressed to top last year’s success.

Colorado is the victim of a brutal non-conference schedule, with matchups against West Virginia and Florida State. Good luck with all that. The Buffs will probably have a better team this year with a worse record to show for it.

It’s really hard to predict Kansas State or Iowa State. K-State is pining for the days of Bill Snyder. They could finish anywhere between 4-8 and 8-4. My guess is the former. ISU is in the second year of a rebuilding project under Gene Chizik. It’ll be another long year in Ames.

In the South, Oklahoma is the team to beat until notified otherwise. The Sooners look strong on offense and will be favored in every game. With a break or two, they could be in Miami for the BCS National Championship Game. They will outlast the Texas schools.

Another team looking to have a breakout year is Texas Tech. The Red Raiders return a load of weapons on offense and have a favorable schedule, including Texas at home. Tech has a chance to be undefeated before visiting Oklahoma in November.

The Texas Longhorns will win 9 games on talent alone. Problem is, they will play at least three teams that are better than them. 9-3 would be an awesome season in a lot of places, but it won’t be good enough in Austin.

Texas A&M hired former Green Bay Packers coach Mike Sherman to lead the Aggies to more delusions of grandeur. The Aggies fashion themselves as a national powerhouse. In reality, they’re the fourth best program in the Big 12 South. That is where they will remain this year.

Speaking of delusions of grandeur, the Oklahoma State Cowboys move into freshly renovated Boone Pickens Stadium this year. While the stadium will be state of the art, it’s still OSU, and it’s like putting lipstick on a pig. OSU is lucky Baylor is in this division. Still, the Cowboys should finish at or over .500 and make it to a bowl game.

Taking their traditional place in last place are the Baylor Bears. Art Briles is the latest coach to try to make the Bears successful. Good luck with all that.

Projected Finish:
North
Missouri 11-1, 7-1
Nebraska 9-3, 6-2
Kansas 7-5, 4-4
Colorado 5-7, 3-5
Kansas State 4-8, 1-7
Iowa State 3-9, 1-7
South
Oklahoma 12-0, 8-0
Texas Tech 10-2, 6-2
Texas 9-3, 5-3
Texas A&M 6-6, 4-4
Oklahoma State 7-5, 3-5
Baylor 3-9, 1-7

NCAA Projections: Big 12

I'm back in Texas today, and it's fitting that I project the Big XII Conference.

The Big 12 has become increasingly top-heavy, with the power residing in the South Division. Oklahoma and Texas are leading an arms race, and it's all the rest of the conference can do to keep up. Any time either OU or UT lose, it's an upset. That won't change this year.

The South division is comparable to any group of power schools in America. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State are dangerous. However, they can't keep up long-term with the big dogs in Norman and Austin. Baylor has made huge strides under coach Guy Morriss, but can still only muster four or five wins per year.

On the other hand, the North division has been weak for the last few years. The division appears to have bottomed out, but as long as Nebraska is not national championship caliber, the North will be perceived as weak.

In the South, OU and Texas are head and shoulders ahead of everyone else. OU is strong at all positions except quarterback, where an untested player will line up behind center. Texas has a load of athletes as well, and hopes for QB Colt McCoy to be healthy. McCoy's injury last season led to two late season losses to Kansas State and Texas A&M. I predict one loss between the two teams: in Dallas on October 6, when the Sooners break a two-year losing streak to the Longhorns. OU will run the table at 12-0, and Texas will finish 11-1.

There will be a coaching change in College Station at the end of the year. Dennis Franchione faces a suicidal schedule this season, as the Fightin' Texas Aggies must travel to Miami, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Missouri. It would be an accomplishment to win one of those road games, much less more than one. It would be hard for any team this side of the NFL to run the table against that road schedule. In addition to that, Texas visits Aggieland with revenge on their mind, following last year's A&M win in Austin. Aggie boosters are already passing the hat to raise money for the buyout of Coach Fran. He would probably already be gone, but the Aggies pulled off that season-ending upset over hated archrival Texas, preserving his job for another year.

In the North, this should be the year of the Missouri Tigers. Missouri looks to be a good team with a favorable schedule. However, I don't trust them in big games. I don't really trust the modern-day Nebraska Cornhuskers in big games, either. However, something has to give when the Huskers visit Columbia in October. I look for Nebraska to escape Columbia with a win, and to win the North championship. The rest of the division looks pretty mediocre.

Big XII Projections

North
Nebraska 9-3 7-1
Missouri 10-2 6-2
Kansas State 5-7 3-5
Kansas 6-6 2-6
Iowa State 4-8 2-6
Colorado 3-9 1-7

South
Oklahoma 12-0 8-0
Texas 11-1 7-1
Texas Tech 8-4 4-4
Oklahoma State 6-6 4-4
Texas A&M 6-6 3-5
Baylor 4-8 1-7

Big XII Rumblings, Part 4

Continuing the speculation on Big 12 membership, we now turn to the Big XII South Division.

Once again, I'm not advocating the breakup of the Big 12. These schools are better off with each other than without. But, each school has to explore its own options, in case the Big 12 heads for disaster.

Here are my thoughts on the Texas and Oklahoma schools:

Baylor
2006 Average Football Attendance: 37,080
TV Market: Waco/Temple/Bryan (95) Significant alumni presence in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio.
Where could they go? Nowhere they would want to go willingly.
What do they have to offer? Honestly? Nothing. They have been competitive in non-revenue sports, including a national championship in women’s basketball in 2005. But, the revenue sports of football and men’s basketball drive the bus.
What’s the holdup? None. This is a very fortunate school. If Baylor alum Ann Richards had not been governor, and Baylor Law alum Bob Bullock had not have been lieutenant governor at the time of the breakup of the old Southwest Conference, Baylor would have most likely been out in the cold during the conference shuffle of the 90’s, and would now be playing football games against Rice before crowds of maybe 10,000. Political pull is all that got Baylor into the conference in the first place. Waco as a market is nothing to write home about, and the school is not nearly as large as its state school brethren. Baylor is glad and lucky to be in the Big 12.

Oklahoma
2006 Average Football Attendance: 84,561
TV Market: Oklahoma City (45) (also brings Tulsa)
Where could they go? SEC
What do they have to offer? One of the top five football programs in the history of college football, now generating more money than ever. Football money drives the success of the rest of the athletic department. OU is a football-crazy school, just like most of the SEC.
What’s the holdup? OU is a charter member of the Southwest Conference, the Big Six/Seven/Eight, and the Big 12. They’ll think twice before they jump. Also, the Oklahoma legislature will keep them from moving unless such a move also benefits Oklahoma State. Finally, as good as OU’s football program is, Oklahoma is still not that big of a state, with only 3 ½ million people, and the #45 and #61 TV markets. Still, they would fit very well with the SEC, if forced to make a move there.

Oklahoma State
2006 Average Football Attendance: 40,954
TV Market: Oklahoma City (45) (also brings Tulsa)
Where could they go? Nowhere, unless the Oklahoma legislature intervenes
What do they have to offer? Nothing, except for T. Boone Pickens’ $165 million donation to improve the stadium and other facilities.
What’s the holdup? Remote location, small state, small markets. They offer nothing Oklahoma doesn’t already offer, without the advantages of a nationally recognized football program. Praying the Big 12 stays together.

Texas
2006 Average Football Attendance: 88,505
TV Market: Austin (52) (also brings the entire state of Texas, including Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio)
Where could they go? Anywhere they want, except independent status. Were unofficially offered membership in the Pac-10 in the 90’s. The SEC and Big 10 would love to have them, also.
What do they have to offer? Everything. Third-largest enrollment in the nation, huge alumni base, more money than Fort Knox. Largest school in second-largest state in the U.S. Exceptional all-around athletic program. Strong academic reputation.
What’s the holdup? They control the Big 12 politically, just as they did the SWC before it. They’re the biggest and baddest out there, and they throw their weight around accordingly. They wouldn’t be able to carry as much weight in another conference, and everyone knows that.

Texas A&M
2006 Average Football Attendance: 80,532
TV Market: Waco/Temple/Bryan (95) (also brings the entire state of Texas, including Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio)
Where could they go? The SEC would love them, and almost had them when the SWC broke up.
What do they have to offer? Almost as much as UT. Large enrollment, large alumni base, almost as much money as UT. The Ags have also built a strong all-around athletic program, and have scoreboard on Texas this past school year in most sports. Strong academic reputation.
What’s the holdup? Political pressure from the Texas Legislature sent them into the Big 12, and it will keep them there, unless UT wants to make a move.

Texas Tech
2006 Average Football Attendance: 50,874
TV Market: Lubbock (147) (also brings west Texas markets of Amarillo, Abilene, Midland/Odessa, Wichita Falls, and a significant presence in Dallas-Fort Worth)
Where could they go? Nowhere they would want to go willingly.
What do they have to offer? If West Texas were its own state, Tech would be its university. But, West Texas is sparsely populated, and is not its own state. Significantly improved facilities, and, for now, the winningest coach in college basketball history.
What’s the holdup? Geography, and limited perceived academic reputation. Third banana in state of Texas, behind UT and A&M. Large institution, but unable to deliver the entire state of Texas to a conference by itself. Praying the Big 12 stays together.

Big XII Rumblings, Part 3

The Big XII is a young conference, moving into its twelfth year. It does not have the tradition of conferences such as the Big Ten or SEC. Eight of the schools were together in the Big Eight, while the four Texas schools were together in the Southwest Conference. It was a marriage of convenience and survival, and has been rocky at times.

Issues such as revenue sharing raise their ugly head, and the schools have to consider their options, if they are not happy with the direction of the conference. This blog post is purely speculation. I’m just a guy in Texas with a computer and an internet connection. I have no inside information, just analysis.

I will preface this with two statements: 1) As an OU fan, I miss the days of the old Big 8. Native Texans miss the Southwest Conference. But, those days aren’t coming back. The two sides need each other. Which leads to my second statement: 2) Any talk of a conference breakup is preposterous. These schools are better off together than apart.

However, it is fun to speculate. Each school has something to offer. Some have more to offer than others. Where could they go? Would they go?

In this, the 21st century, conference affiliation is determined by the ability to generate revenue, and institutional fit.

The two biggest indicators of revenue-generating ability are football attendance (ticket sales), and TV market size (to add value to TV contracts). I will keep those in mind as I evaluate the possibilities for each school.

Institutional fit describes similarity with other institutions. The Big Ten is both an athletic conference and an academic consortium, made up of large flagship state universities and Northwestern, the lone private school. The conference values perceived academic reputation as much as they do butts in seats for football games. The Pac-10 has similar institutional values, with USC and Stanford serving as the lone private schools. The SEC, on the other hand, values academics, but does not have the culture of academic elitism. It is made up of Southern state flagship schools and Vanderbilt, the most prestigious private school in the South.

Attendance figures are taken from the NCAA website. My first analysis will be of Big XII North schools. The South will be discussed in a later post.

Pros and cons for each member:

Colorado
2006 Average Football Attendance: 46,048
TV Market: Denver (18)
Where could they go? Pac-10
What do they have to offer? Similar culture to western schools. Could partner with Utah to make the Pac-10 a 12-team conference, opening up the possibility of a football championship game. Have already unofficially been offered membership in the 90’s.
What’s the holdup? Competes with four major professional sports franchises in Denver market. Fan base is not as large as size of school or state would suggest. Facilities are behind the rest of their current conference-example: no indoor practice facility for football.

Iowa State
2006 Average Football Attendance: 46,171
TV Market: Des Moines (73) (also offers Cedar Rapids, Sioux City, and Omaha markets)
Where could they go? Big Ten (based on geography)
What do they have to offer? Membership in prestigious Association of American Universities (AAU), as all other Big Ten schools are. Proximity to Iowa and Minnesota.
What’s the holdup? Smallest athletic budget in Big XII, would also have smallest budget in Big Ten. Does not add TV markets, as Iowa already brings Iowa TV markets to the Big Ten, though all of those markets are small.

Kansas
2006 Average Football Attendance: 44,137
TV Market: Kansas City (31) (also offers Wichita and Topeka markets)
Where could they go? Big Ten (only as a package deal with Missouri and/or Nebraska)
What do they have to offer? Traditionally strong men’s basketball program, in top 5 all time. Key part of Kansas City TV market. School is a member of AAU-important to Big Ten.
What’s the holdup? The Big Ten would look at four or five other schools before looking at KU. Kansas legislature would frown on any deal that would not also benefit Kansas State. Traditionally mediocre football program.

Kansas State
2006 Average Football Attendance: 46,693
TV Market: Topeka (138) (also offers Kansas City and Wichita markets)
Where could they go? Nowhere, really.
What to they have to offer? Recently strong football program.
What’s the holdup? Everything. Remote location, smallest state with two BCS programs, small TV markets. In tough position, having too large a program for a smaller conference, but having the second-smallest budget in the Big XII.

Missouri
2006 Average Football Attendance: 55,918
TV Market: Columbia-Jefferson City (139) (also offers St. Louis, Kansas City, Springfield, Joplin, and Cape Girardeau)
Where could they go? Big Ten
What do they have to offer? Location bordering Illinois and Iowa. St. Louis (21st) and Kansas City (31st) TV markets. Member of AAU, like Big Ten schools.
What’s the holdup? The Big Ten is waiting on Notre Dame. If they decide to expand without Notre Dame, Mizzou is a leading candidate. But, Mizzou is really an underachiever, as the only Division I-A school in a state with over 5 million people.

Nebraska
2006 Average Football Attendance: 85,044
TV Market: Lincoln (104) (also offers Omaha, Sioux City, and the rest of Nebraska)
Where could they go? Big Ten
What do they have to offer? Historical Top 10 football program, with fanatical following and national recognition. Money generated by football supports strong all-around athletic program. Borders Big Ten state of Iowa. Member of AAU.
What’s the holdup? Big Ten has a line of more convenient options. However, Nebraska brings a lot to the table, and is considering options in case they become unhappy with Big XII revenue sharing/generation.

Big XII Rumblings, Part 2

As I wrote earlier, the Big 12 finds itself in a bit of conflict over revenue sharing. The high-revenue schools, such as Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Texas A&M see no problem with the status quo, where half of football and non-conference basketball television money are distributed to the schools based on appearances. Up until now, it’s been an issue, but not a deal-breaker. A school such as Texas is bringing in about $1.5 million more per year under this setup, than they would if all revenues were shared equally. With the advent of the new, more lucrative, TV contract, this becomes more of an issue with the Kansas States of the world.

As I mentioned earlier, the new commissioner will have to broker a deal that will please everyone. In a perfect world, Texas, OU, and Nebraska shouldn’t have to give up revenue they have earned from having high-profile football programs. At the same time, it would cost one of these schools more money to switch conferences than they would give up through equal revenue sharing. Equal revenue sharing helps build the conference by treating all members equally, instead of as Texas, Oklahoma and Friends. It hasn’t hurt Ohio State and Michigan to help Northwestern. Ohio State now has an athletic budget of over $100,000,000. I have read that Northwestern is getting more from the new Big Ten TV deal than Notre Dame will from their exclusive deal with NBC. I don't know if that's true, but it’s pretty incredible for that to even be a possibility. By and large, the schools and alumni/population bases of the Big 12 are smaller than those of the Big Ten, therefore not commanding the same amount of money. Nonetheless, the schools of the Big 12 can work together toward solutions that benefit everyone.

There needs to be a major BCS conference in the middle of the country. Texas and OU need conference mates and true partners, not merely patsies to fill schedules in multiple sports. I'm not saying that the other ten schools are patsies in every sport. However, there is a big difference in revenue generated and spent. All-around athletic success tends to correlate with money for facilities, coaches, travel, etc. Here are some figures for athletic expenditures for 2006, from midmajority.com:

Texas: $83,600,248
Oklahoma: $64,322,580
Nebraska: $63,695,480
Texas A&M: $61,419,536
Texas Tech: $53,337,768
Kansas: $47,554,572
Colorado: $45,731,544
Missouri: $45,184,836
Oklahoma State: $44,061,812
Baylor: $36,228,960
Kansas State: $34,834,468
Iowa State: $32,541,236

I am as big of a free-market capitalist as there is out there. I hate socialism. But, when it comes to sports leagues, the NFL has proven that revenue sharing benefits everyone. In the NFL, what helps Green Bay eventually helps New York. New York doesn’t benefit from a weak franchise in Green Bay.

A league is no stronger than its weakest link.

To come: Options for conference members, in case of a breakup.

Big XII Rumblings, Part I

Last week, as I was on blogging sabbatical, the Big XII was rocked (well, that’s a strong word) by the resignation of commissioner Kevin Weiberg. Weiberg is leaving the Big 12 after 8 ½ years for a newly created position with the Big Ten Network.

As a fan of the University of Oklahoma, I am glad to see this happen. OU was ill-served by the conference office on three occasions in the last two years: the football officiating debacle at Texas Tech in 2005, the highway robbery in football at Oregon last season, and the elbowing incident involving Longar Longar in a basketball game at Texas Tech. In each case, the interests of OU were not defended, forcing the OU administration to defend itself. Furthermore, the commissioner allowed Tech coach Bob Knight to bully him into suspending Longar for two games as a result of an unintentional elbow, ignoring the pleas of the OU administration.

The conference, however, faces bigger problems. There is unrest in the league regarding revenue sharing. Currently, the league splits all non-television revenue equally. Conference members also split half of all television revenue equally. The other half of television revenue is placed in an “appearance pool”. This money is distributed based on football TV appearances and non-conference national TV appearances in basketball. This benefits schools like Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska (football), as well as Kansas (basketball). The more powerful programs earn up to $1-1/2 million more per year than the less-exposed schools under this plan.

Lesser-exposed members would like to see the Big XII follow the lead of the Big Ten and ACC, and share all revenue equally. This idea goes over like a lead balloon at places such as the University of Nebraska, who is considering the option of leaving the conference if they lose money in any revenue-restructuring deal. Currently, the conference requires 9 of the 12 schools to vote in favor of rewriting the conference constitution. As it stands now, 8 of the schools would be in favor of revenue sharing. Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Texas A&M are in favor of the status quo. Rumor is that A&M may be on the fence, and could change their position.

The Big XII is in an unenviable position. There are really only three programs that can draw a national audience, or large numbers of casual fans, for a television appearance against any random opponent. This explains why OU will play North Texas on national cable television in September, and why Texas can play Louisiana-Lafayette on national cable television. Therefore, Texas, OU, and Nebraska can bring in more money for TV appearances.

The lesser-exposed members argue that revenue sharing would make for a greater spirit of cooperation in the conference, resulting in more exposure and money for everyone involved. They point to the Big Ten and their new television deal as an example. The early NFL would be another example, as franchises such as New York and Cleveland gave up lucrative local TV deals in the 60’s so the league could share revenues from their national TV deal with CBS. The NFL mushroomed into the most valuable television property in the U.S.

OU, Texas, and Nebraska can also make the argument that they should get to keep the money they have earned, by having high-powered football programs that fans will watch on TV.

The next commissioner will have to broker a solution to this dilemma. The conference cannot afford to disintegrate. If the conference were to break up, the lesser-exposed schools would suffer the most.

At this point, I think rumors of a Big 12 breakup are premature and preposterous. But, anything can happen. In a future post, I will post possible scenarios for conference members.

Intramurals?

This is old news, as it happened earlier this week.

Colorado football coach Dan Hawkins was asked about an anonymous complaint from a parent about the relative lack of time off during the Buffs' offseason program. Hawkins left Boise State for the bright lights of the Big XII, and promptly went 2-10 in a train wreck of a season. He is not used to losing, and losing is not wearing well on him.

The audio of his response is here. This is classic audio. Does he mean business, or is he a lunatic?

Good stuff...

College Picks-Championship Week

It’s conference championship weekend, along with a few assorted regular season games. The #2 spot in the BCS is still in play, as well as four BCS conference championships.

Last Week: 13-7 Season: 180-80

Big XII Championship game at Kansas City: Oklahoma vs. Nebraska: The Sooners are making a surprise appearance here, winning seven games in a row after losing to Texas. They are doing it the Woody Hayes way: three yards and a cloud of dust. RBs Allen Patrick and Chris Brown have picked up the slack after the injury to Adrian Peterson. Nebraska is the best of a mediocre bunch in the North, but the Huskers do have a big road win over Texas A&M, the latest conquerors of Texas. The forecast is for temperatures in the 20s in Kansas City Saturday night, which favors the OU running game over the West Coast Offense of Nebraska. Pick: OU
MAC Championship game at Detroit: Central Michigan vs. Ohio: Frank Solich has the Ohio Bobcats in the championship game and a bowl in his second year in Athens. The Chippewas blew through the West division of the MAC. Pick: Ohio
Conference USA Championship game at Houston: Southern Miss vs. Houston: The Coogs have rolled through the West division of C-USA, after a midseason 3-game losing streak. Southern Miss is consistently good. The game is on Houston’s home field. Pick: Houston
ACC Championship game at Jacksonville: Wake Forest vs. Georgia Tech: Wake Forest got through a murderer’s row in their division, getting past Maryland, Boston College, and a weakened Florida State to reach the championship game. Georgia Tech is coming off of a tough loss to archrival Georgia. Neither team expected to be here at the beginning of the year. The ride continues for Wake. Pick: Wake Forest
SEC Championship game at Atlanta: Florida vs. Arkansas: The Gators have made it to this point with only one loss, on the Plains at Auburn. Arkansas won 10 games in a row before losing last week against LSU. Arkansas is doing some fun things on offense, such as lining up RB Dwight McFadden in the “Wildcat” formation, a variation of the single wing. Florida barely survived last week in Tallahassee against weakened archrival Florida State. Arkansas is better than Florida State. Pick: Arkansas
Army vs. Navy at Philadelphia: A lot of these guys will be fighting terrorists as soon as next year. Props to them for serving our country. This rivalry takes a back seat to none. On the field, Navy is once again having a solid season. Army has had its ups and downs. Pick: Navy
USC at UCLA: All that stands between the Trojans and the BCS championship game are their hated rival Bruins. USC needs to win in the Rose Bowl to avoid returning there on January 1. UCLA is a fair team, but nothing special. USC just keeps getting better. Pick: USC
Rutgers at West Virginia: The Scarlet Knights can secure a conference championship and BCS bowl bid with a win. Problem is, it’s their toughest road game of the year. West Virginia suffered an improbable home loss to South Florida last week, bringing an end to their BCS hopes. Still, the ‘Eers will have enough in the tank to bounce back and handle Rutgers. There will be a lot of happy people in Louisville Saturday night. Pick: West Virginia
Air Force at TCU: TCU, with a win, will clinch another 10 win season, after slipping under the radar with early losses to BYU and Utah. Air Force has slipped to the status of a middle-of-the pack Mountain West team, and is no longer the strongest program of the service academies. Pick: TCU
Oregon State at Hawaii: The Beavers are the only team to defeat USC this year. They will not have a vacation in Hawaii this week, as the Warriors have won 9 games in a row, and are ranked 24th in the nation. The Warriors (don’t call them Rainbow) have scored more than 40 points in all 10 of their wins. The Beavers can’t hang with that. Pick: Hawaii

Finally, After 11 Years

Quick comment from the road, as I will have more hot sports opinions tomorrow on the BCS and the world of football...

After 11 years, there is finally a matchup between my beloved Oklahoma Sooners and the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the Big XII Championship game. Nebraska has been in this game three times, OU has been in it four times, but never have the two played each other in the Big XII championship game. With due apologies to Texas, Kansas State, Colorado, and the rest of the conference, this matchup was in mind when the conference and the championship game were created 11 years ago.

Special thanks to the Fightin' Texas Aggies for making this possible with their upset win over Texas.

It's going to be a fun week. Boomer Sooner!

Half a BCS Mess

Who's Number Two?

The Ohio State University took care of business on Saturday, with a wild 42-39 win over Michigan. Both teams went to the air early and often. Woody Hayes was turning over in his grave. Bo Schembechler was turning over at the funeral home, as he hasn’t been buried yet. Those two coaches made this game famous with three yards and a cloud of dust. The Buckeyes can book their reservations for the BCS National Championship Game in Glendale, Arizona on January 8. The race for the other spot is a mess.

Michigan has a chance to join them, but they need some help. They would really be helped if their little buddies from Notre Dame beat USC on Saturday. USC played a lethargic first three quarters before pulling away to defeat Cal, 23-9. At this point, Michigan remains #2 in the BCS rankings. It remains to be seen if USC wins over Notre Dame and UCLA would help them pass Michigan in the BCS rankings.

Also players in this #2 mess are Florida and Arkansas. Both teams have games this week, as Florida plays Florida State, and Arkansas plays LSU. The winner of their duel in the SEC championship game has an outside chance to end up as the #2 team.

If USC wins out, it’s hard to argue with them due to the strength of their non-conference schedule. They would have wins over Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Nebraska, in addition to their Pac-10 title. Michigan has proven themselves worthy, but USC’s non-conference schedule should be enough to carry them to the #2 spot.

BCS Projections

BCS NCG: TOSU vs. USC
Rose: Michigan vs. Notre Dame (rematch)
Fiesta: Texas vs. Boise State
Sugar: Florida vs. West Virginia
Orange: Arkansas vs. Georgia Tech

Big XII Rankings

1. Texas: Needs win over A&M to stay in this spot.
2. Oklahoma: Needs win by Texas Aggies and win over Oklahoma Aggies.
3. Nebraska: Getting ready for Kansas City.
4. Texas A&M: Sooners will be cheering for Aggies on Friday.
5. Texas Tech: Good win over OSU.
6. Oklahoma State: Inconsistent, but facing their Super Bowl with OU coming to Stillwater.
7. Missouri: What was that brainlock in Ames?
8. Kansas: Fighting Manginos need win over Mizzou this week.
9. Kansas State: Followed up Texas win with loss to hated archrival KU.
10. Baylor: Season mercifully over.
11. Colorado: Improved from beginning of season to end.
12. Iowa State: Sent coach McCarney out a winner.

Big XII Rankings

Texas really made my job harder after their performance against The Ohio State University. As a result, no one deserves to be ranked #1 this week. No one has earned it yet. This conference is so unimpressive at this point. OU and Nebraska go to the West Coast to defend the conference's honor this week.

(tie) 2. Texas. They still have more talent than everyone else, but they have to prove themselves all over again. Just like in the old days before Vince, Mack Brown is going to have to coach. That will be dangerous for them when they hit Fair Park in October. Back to earth for Bevo.
(tie) 2. Nebraska. The moment of truth is this week as the Children of the Corn hit SoCal for their game with USC. They've whipped two teams from Louisiana so far. This is an improvement over the first two years of Bill Callahan's tenure, when they struggled against similar teams.
3. Oklahoma. They looked pathetic in the first half against Washington. They looked good in the 3rd quarter, and pulled away from the Huskies. They'll need to play well Saturday at Oregon to win.
4. Texas Tech. Shaky overtime win at UTEP, but a win is a win. They have a big trip to Fort Worth this week.
5. Missouri. They Showed Me a little bit in beating Ole Miss like a rented mule.
6. Texas A&M. Halfway through their creampuff non-conference schedule.
7. Iowa State. Not great, but not bad, either.
8. Kansas. How do you barely beat Louisiana-Monroe? Not a good night for the Fighting Manginos.
9. Baylor. Beat Northwestern State like a drum.
10. Oklahoma State. Moving through their creampuffs easier than I thought they would. They had much less trouble with Arkie State than I expected.
11. Kansas State. Skunked Florida Atlantic.
12. Colorado. Will they win a game? The proud and mighty have fallen fast.