Breaking Ties Is Hard To Do

There is going to be a Big 12 championship game Saturday night in Kansas City, and Oklahoma is going to be in it. The Sooners used a 61-41 win at Oklahoma State to impress enough of the BCS computers to pass Texas in this week’s BCS ratings, enabling OU to win the league’s 5th tiebreaker over Texas and Texas Tech for the spot in Kansas City against the Missouri Tigers. (Wait, that’s a basketball score! The two schools have scored fewer points in basketball games against each other!)

The involvement of hard drives and statistical formulas provides a fitting end to the greatest season in the short history of the Big 12. OU, Texas, and Tech ran up point totals that would make the best video gamer proud. Not far behind them was Oklahoma State. The Cowboys were the fourth best team in the South division, but would have won the North. Heck, the Cowboys would have won the ACC, the Big East, and a few other conferences.

OU, Texas, and Tech were ESPN and ABC’s dream. The ABC Saturday night crew spent a lot of time this fall in Texas and Oklahoma, as that is where the best matchups were. It’s not that there was a lack of defense here. It’s just that the offenses were so good that nothing could stop them. These four teams gave fans plenty of reason to spend money to attend games and to make time to watch them on TV.

Teeth are gnashing and mouths are wailing tonight in the city of Austin, as the Texas Longhorns came out on the wrong end of this tiebreaker. They have good reason, as Texas beat OU in Dallas, 45-35. The wildcard in this scenario is that there is a third team in this scenario, Texas Tech, that finished with the same record as OU and UT. If the head-to-head result between OU and UT matters, then so does the head-to-head matchup between UT and Tech. By the way, Tech won that game, 39-33 in Lubbock. OU’s later pounding of the Red Raiders does not take away from Tech’s great season or their role in the tiebreaker.

Is there a better way to break the tie? Perhaps. The SEC and ACC drops the third team from the tie if said team is more than 5 places below the higher-ranked team in the BCS standings. That would not happen here, as Tech is ranked 7th behind OU’s 2nd and UT’s 3rd. Maybe the three schools should do what high schools in Florida do: meet at a neutral site on a Tuesday night, play one quarter each against each other, and let the two top teams play a final quarter for all the marbles. Just kidding, as this would be logistically impossible. A more logical solution would be for the three coaches to meet at a truck stop in Wichita Falls and flip coins. Or, draw straws. Or, better yet, play Rock, Paper, Scissors. Ok, with as much money as these teams generate and these coaches make, they could meet at the Grand Hyatt at DFW Airport. The truck stop would make for better TV, though. Kinda like the real story in the book, Friday Night Lights. To sum it up, there’s not a good way to break a tie between three really good teams.

There is hope for the Longhorns. OU could very well lose to Missouri Saturday night in Kansas City. And, the Longhorns could very well stay ahead of Florida if the Gators defeat #1 Alabama in the SEC championship game. Both of these scenarios would give Bevo a trip to Miami for the national championship game.

The BCS is good for nothing but controversy. So is anything involving OU and Texas.

The South Is Where It's At

At the halfway point of the college football season, we find:

• There are ten undefeated teams remaining in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
• Five of those teams are in BCS conferences.
• Three of them are in the Big 12 South division: Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State.
• Oklahoma only fell to #4 in the latest AP writers’ poll. However, they have the worst record in the state. Oklahoma State and Tulsa remain undefeated.
• It’s early, but OU is not only #4 in the nation, but #4 in the South division standings after two weeks of conference play.
• The Big 12 South Division contains four of the top eight teams in this week’s poll: #1 Texas, #4 OU, #7 Texas Tech, and #8 OSU.

This is an incredible geographical concentration of football excellence. Oklahoma State joined this dogpile with an upset at previously third-ranked Missouri, 28-23.

Poor Baylor. The Bears have to play all these teams. Likewise for Texas A&M. However, if there was ever a year for A&M to stink, this is it, as they would have a hard time with these teams regardless.

Missouri and Kansas this week must fight for the honor of the North division in trips to Texas and OU, respectively. The rest of the North division looks relatively weak, though Nebraska nearly shocked Texas Tech in Lubbock on Saturday.

These teams should do a good job of knocking each other off in the last two months of the season, keeping one out of the BCS national championship game. The team with the best shot of appearing in Miami appears to be Penn State. The Nittany Lions are undefeated and are the best team in a weak Big Ten conference. Who will play them? Who knows. Alabama is strong and still undefeated, but must finish their SEC schedule. If USC can keep from farting around in the Pac-10, they have a good chance to get back to that #2 spot. Or, if a team survives the Big 12 with only one loss, they have a chance to be in Miami as well. In that case, Texas is in the driver’s seat.

The only guaranteed thing remaining in this college football season is change. Stay tuned.

College Football Projections: Big XII

Last, but definitely not least, is the Big 12.

The Big XII last season saw a slight shift in power from the South to the North. Oklahoma won the conference title, but Kansas and Missouri both finished in the top 10 in the nation. KU won the Orange Bowl over Virginia Tech, while Missouri should have been in a BCS bowl ahead of KU based on their head-to-head win and North division championship. Oklahoma and Missouri should be good once again.

In the North, many observers believe that Missouri may have their best team ever. This is Missouri we’re dealing with here, so anything could happen. But, they have a good chance to be favored in every game they play, including road trips to Nebraska and Texas. Plus, if they make it that far, the Big XII championship game is on the frozen tundra of Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

Nebraska begins the Bo Pelini era four years too late. But, it’s better late than never. The Huskers will be vastly improved.

Kansas caught lightning in a bottle last year and went 11-1 with a win in the Orange Bowl. This year, the Jayhawks should be pretty good, but they will be hardpressed to top last year’s success.

Colorado is the victim of a brutal non-conference schedule, with matchups against West Virginia and Florida State. Good luck with all that. The Buffs will probably have a better team this year with a worse record to show for it.

It’s really hard to predict Kansas State or Iowa State. K-State is pining for the days of Bill Snyder. They could finish anywhere between 4-8 and 8-4. My guess is the former. ISU is in the second year of a rebuilding project under Gene Chizik. It’ll be another long year in Ames.

In the South, Oklahoma is the team to beat until notified otherwise. The Sooners look strong on offense and will be favored in every game. With a break or two, they could be in Miami for the BCS National Championship Game. They will outlast the Texas schools.

Another team looking to have a breakout year is Texas Tech. The Red Raiders return a load of weapons on offense and have a favorable schedule, including Texas at home. Tech has a chance to be undefeated before visiting Oklahoma in November.

The Texas Longhorns will win 9 games on talent alone. Problem is, they will play at least three teams that are better than them. 9-3 would be an awesome season in a lot of places, but it won’t be good enough in Austin.

Texas A&M hired former Green Bay Packers coach Mike Sherman to lead the Aggies to more delusions of grandeur. The Aggies fashion themselves as a national powerhouse. In reality, they’re the fourth best program in the Big 12 South. That is where they will remain this year.

Speaking of delusions of grandeur, the Oklahoma State Cowboys move into freshly renovated Boone Pickens Stadium this year. While the stadium will be state of the art, it’s still OSU, and it’s like putting lipstick on a pig. OSU is lucky Baylor is in this division. Still, the Cowboys should finish at or over .500 and make it to a bowl game.

Taking their traditional place in last place are the Baylor Bears. Art Briles is the latest coach to try to make the Bears successful. Good luck with all that.

Projected Finish:
North
Missouri 11-1, 7-1
Nebraska 9-3, 6-2
Kansas 7-5, 4-4
Colorado 5-7, 3-5
Kansas State 4-8, 1-7
Iowa State 3-9, 1-7
South
Oklahoma 12-0, 8-0
Texas Tech 10-2, 6-2
Texas 9-3, 5-3
Texas A&M 6-6, 4-4
Oklahoma State 7-5, 3-5
Baylor 3-9, 1-7

NCAA Projections: Big 12

I'm back in Texas today, and it's fitting that I project the Big XII Conference.

The Big 12 has become increasingly top-heavy, with the power residing in the South Division. Oklahoma and Texas are leading an arms race, and it's all the rest of the conference can do to keep up. Any time either OU or UT lose, it's an upset. That won't change this year.

The South division is comparable to any group of power schools in America. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State are dangerous. However, they can't keep up long-term with the big dogs in Norman and Austin. Baylor has made huge strides under coach Guy Morriss, but can still only muster four or five wins per year.

On the other hand, the North division has been weak for the last few years. The division appears to have bottomed out, but as long as Nebraska is not national championship caliber, the North will be perceived as weak.

In the South, OU and Texas are head and shoulders ahead of everyone else. OU is strong at all positions except quarterback, where an untested player will line up behind center. Texas has a load of athletes as well, and hopes for QB Colt McCoy to be healthy. McCoy's injury last season led to two late season losses to Kansas State and Texas A&M. I predict one loss between the two teams: in Dallas on October 6, when the Sooners break a two-year losing streak to the Longhorns. OU will run the table at 12-0, and Texas will finish 11-1.

There will be a coaching change in College Station at the end of the year. Dennis Franchione faces a suicidal schedule this season, as the Fightin' Texas Aggies must travel to Miami, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Missouri. It would be an accomplishment to win one of those road games, much less more than one. It would be hard for any team this side of the NFL to run the table against that road schedule. In addition to that, Texas visits Aggieland with revenge on their mind, following last year's A&M win in Austin. Aggie boosters are already passing the hat to raise money for the buyout of Coach Fran. He would probably already be gone, but the Aggies pulled off that season-ending upset over hated archrival Texas, preserving his job for another year.

In the North, this should be the year of the Missouri Tigers. Missouri looks to be a good team with a favorable schedule. However, I don't trust them in big games. I don't really trust the modern-day Nebraska Cornhuskers in big games, either. However, something has to give when the Huskers visit Columbia in October. I look for Nebraska to escape Columbia with a win, and to win the North championship. The rest of the division looks pretty mediocre.

Big XII Projections

North
Nebraska 9-3 7-1
Missouri 10-2 6-2
Kansas State 5-7 3-5
Kansas 6-6 2-6
Iowa State 4-8 2-6
Colorado 3-9 1-7

South
Oklahoma 12-0 8-0
Texas 11-1 7-1
Texas Tech 8-4 4-4
Oklahoma State 6-6 4-4
Texas A&M 6-6 3-5
Baylor 4-8 1-7

Eleven Plus One=Ten, Continued

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany backtracked this week on expansion discussion. It seems that he opened up an entire can of worms when he mentioned it last week.

I think just the opposite is happening. I believe the Big Ten, behind closed doors, is actively searching for a 12th member, preferably in an adjacent state. Now that the Big Ten Network is a factor, the conference needs to expand their footprint. I have seen goofy speculation mentioning schools such as Texas, Tennessee, and Kentucky. I don't look for the Big Ten/Eleven to think that far out of the box.

I do look for the Big Ten to rock the Big 12's world, by peeling off the University of Missouri. This makes sense for several reasons. 1) Missouri is an adjacent state, with two large TV markets in St. Louis and Kansas City. The Big Ten would solidify their place in the St. Louis market with this move. 2) Mizzou has a competitive, but not great athletic program. They provide the ability to generate revenue without providing a huge threat to schools such as Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. 3) The Big Ten can offer more money, especially with the advent of the Big Ten Network. Unlike the Big 12, the Big Ten shares all television revenue equally among all schools. This would be attractive to Mizzou, especially compared to the Texas-dominated Big 12. 4) The Big Ten is an academic conference, in addition to an athletic conference. The opportunity to participate in prestigious academic research projects with fellow conference members would be too much to pass up.

Missouri would leave more than a century of history behind, as a charter member of the Big 6/7/8 and Big 12. However, this is the 21st century, and money talks.

What would happen to the Big 12? First, this would solidify the Big Ten Network, providing a blueprint for the SEC to start their own network. With this in mind, the SEC would be wise to look toward Texas to add more television sets. This can be done by adding Texas and Texas A&M. A&M would go in a heartbeat. Texas would go where they can generate the most revenue. If this scenario happens, all bets are off. It would not be farfetched for the SEC to expand to 14 or even 16 schools, if there is enough money to justify the move.

The next commissioner of the Big 12 faces the responsibility of keeping the league together. That will be easier said than done.

Big XII Rumblings, Part 4

Continuing the speculation on Big 12 membership, we now turn to the Big XII South Division.

Once again, I'm not advocating the breakup of the Big 12. These schools are better off with each other than without. But, each school has to explore its own options, in case the Big 12 heads for disaster.

Here are my thoughts on the Texas and Oklahoma schools:

Baylor
2006 Average Football Attendance: 37,080
TV Market: Waco/Temple/Bryan (95) Significant alumni presence in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio.
Where could they go? Nowhere they would want to go willingly.
What do they have to offer? Honestly? Nothing. They have been competitive in non-revenue sports, including a national championship in women’s basketball in 2005. But, the revenue sports of football and men’s basketball drive the bus.
What’s the holdup? None. This is a very fortunate school. If Baylor alum Ann Richards had not been governor, and Baylor Law alum Bob Bullock had not have been lieutenant governor at the time of the breakup of the old Southwest Conference, Baylor would have most likely been out in the cold during the conference shuffle of the 90’s, and would now be playing football games against Rice before crowds of maybe 10,000. Political pull is all that got Baylor into the conference in the first place. Waco as a market is nothing to write home about, and the school is not nearly as large as its state school brethren. Baylor is glad and lucky to be in the Big 12.

Oklahoma
2006 Average Football Attendance: 84,561
TV Market: Oklahoma City (45) (also brings Tulsa)
Where could they go? SEC
What do they have to offer? One of the top five football programs in the history of college football, now generating more money than ever. Football money drives the success of the rest of the athletic department. OU is a football-crazy school, just like most of the SEC.
What’s the holdup? OU is a charter member of the Southwest Conference, the Big Six/Seven/Eight, and the Big 12. They’ll think twice before they jump. Also, the Oklahoma legislature will keep them from moving unless such a move also benefits Oklahoma State. Finally, as good as OU’s football program is, Oklahoma is still not that big of a state, with only 3 ½ million people, and the #45 and #61 TV markets. Still, they would fit very well with the SEC, if forced to make a move there.

Oklahoma State
2006 Average Football Attendance: 40,954
TV Market: Oklahoma City (45) (also brings Tulsa)
Where could they go? Nowhere, unless the Oklahoma legislature intervenes
What do they have to offer? Nothing, except for T. Boone Pickens’ $165 million donation to improve the stadium and other facilities.
What’s the holdup? Remote location, small state, small markets. They offer nothing Oklahoma doesn’t already offer, without the advantages of a nationally recognized football program. Praying the Big 12 stays together.

Texas
2006 Average Football Attendance: 88,505
TV Market: Austin (52) (also brings the entire state of Texas, including Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio)
Where could they go? Anywhere they want, except independent status. Were unofficially offered membership in the Pac-10 in the 90’s. The SEC and Big 10 would love to have them, also.
What do they have to offer? Everything. Third-largest enrollment in the nation, huge alumni base, more money than Fort Knox. Largest school in second-largest state in the U.S. Exceptional all-around athletic program. Strong academic reputation.
What’s the holdup? They control the Big 12 politically, just as they did the SWC before it. They’re the biggest and baddest out there, and they throw their weight around accordingly. They wouldn’t be able to carry as much weight in another conference, and everyone knows that.

Texas A&M
2006 Average Football Attendance: 80,532
TV Market: Waco/Temple/Bryan (95) (also brings the entire state of Texas, including Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio)
Where could they go? The SEC would love them, and almost had them when the SWC broke up.
What do they have to offer? Almost as much as UT. Large enrollment, large alumni base, almost as much money as UT. The Ags have also built a strong all-around athletic program, and have scoreboard on Texas this past school year in most sports. Strong academic reputation.
What’s the holdup? Political pressure from the Texas Legislature sent them into the Big 12, and it will keep them there, unless UT wants to make a move.

Texas Tech
2006 Average Football Attendance: 50,874
TV Market: Lubbock (147) (also brings west Texas markets of Amarillo, Abilene, Midland/Odessa, Wichita Falls, and a significant presence in Dallas-Fort Worth)
Where could they go? Nowhere they would want to go willingly.
What do they have to offer? If West Texas were its own state, Tech would be its university. But, West Texas is sparsely populated, and is not its own state. Significantly improved facilities, and, for now, the winningest coach in college basketball history.
What’s the holdup? Geography, and limited perceived academic reputation. Third banana in state of Texas, behind UT and A&M. Large institution, but unable to deliver the entire state of Texas to a conference by itself. Praying the Big 12 stays together.

Big XII Rumblings, Part 3

The Big XII is a young conference, moving into its twelfth year. It does not have the tradition of conferences such as the Big Ten or SEC. Eight of the schools were together in the Big Eight, while the four Texas schools were together in the Southwest Conference. It was a marriage of convenience and survival, and has been rocky at times.

Issues such as revenue sharing raise their ugly head, and the schools have to consider their options, if they are not happy with the direction of the conference. This blog post is purely speculation. I’m just a guy in Texas with a computer and an internet connection. I have no inside information, just analysis.

I will preface this with two statements: 1) As an OU fan, I miss the days of the old Big 8. Native Texans miss the Southwest Conference. But, those days aren’t coming back. The two sides need each other. Which leads to my second statement: 2) Any talk of a conference breakup is preposterous. These schools are better off together than apart.

However, it is fun to speculate. Each school has something to offer. Some have more to offer than others. Where could they go? Would they go?

In this, the 21st century, conference affiliation is determined by the ability to generate revenue, and institutional fit.

The two biggest indicators of revenue-generating ability are football attendance (ticket sales), and TV market size (to add value to TV contracts). I will keep those in mind as I evaluate the possibilities for each school.

Institutional fit describes similarity with other institutions. The Big Ten is both an athletic conference and an academic consortium, made up of large flagship state universities and Northwestern, the lone private school. The conference values perceived academic reputation as much as they do butts in seats for football games. The Pac-10 has similar institutional values, with USC and Stanford serving as the lone private schools. The SEC, on the other hand, values academics, but does not have the culture of academic elitism. It is made up of Southern state flagship schools and Vanderbilt, the most prestigious private school in the South.

Attendance figures are taken from the NCAA website. My first analysis will be of Big XII North schools. The South will be discussed in a later post.

Pros and cons for each member:

Colorado
2006 Average Football Attendance: 46,048
TV Market: Denver (18)
Where could they go? Pac-10
What do they have to offer? Similar culture to western schools. Could partner with Utah to make the Pac-10 a 12-team conference, opening up the possibility of a football championship game. Have already unofficially been offered membership in the 90’s.
What’s the holdup? Competes with four major professional sports franchises in Denver market. Fan base is not as large as size of school or state would suggest. Facilities are behind the rest of their current conference-example: no indoor practice facility for football.

Iowa State
2006 Average Football Attendance: 46,171
TV Market: Des Moines (73) (also offers Cedar Rapids, Sioux City, and Omaha markets)
Where could they go? Big Ten (based on geography)
What do they have to offer? Membership in prestigious Association of American Universities (AAU), as all other Big Ten schools are. Proximity to Iowa and Minnesota.
What’s the holdup? Smallest athletic budget in Big XII, would also have smallest budget in Big Ten. Does not add TV markets, as Iowa already brings Iowa TV markets to the Big Ten, though all of those markets are small.

Kansas
2006 Average Football Attendance: 44,137
TV Market: Kansas City (31) (also offers Wichita and Topeka markets)
Where could they go? Big Ten (only as a package deal with Missouri and/or Nebraska)
What do they have to offer? Traditionally strong men’s basketball program, in top 5 all time. Key part of Kansas City TV market. School is a member of AAU-important to Big Ten.
What’s the holdup? The Big Ten would look at four or five other schools before looking at KU. Kansas legislature would frown on any deal that would not also benefit Kansas State. Traditionally mediocre football program.

Kansas State
2006 Average Football Attendance: 46,693
TV Market: Topeka (138) (also offers Kansas City and Wichita markets)
Where could they go? Nowhere, really.
What to they have to offer? Recently strong football program.
What’s the holdup? Everything. Remote location, smallest state with two BCS programs, small TV markets. In tough position, having too large a program for a smaller conference, but having the second-smallest budget in the Big XII.

Missouri
2006 Average Football Attendance: 55,918
TV Market: Columbia-Jefferson City (139) (also offers St. Louis, Kansas City, Springfield, Joplin, and Cape Girardeau)
Where could they go? Big Ten
What do they have to offer? Location bordering Illinois and Iowa. St. Louis (21st) and Kansas City (31st) TV markets. Member of AAU, like Big Ten schools.
What’s the holdup? The Big Ten is waiting on Notre Dame. If they decide to expand without Notre Dame, Mizzou is a leading candidate. But, Mizzou is really an underachiever, as the only Division I-A school in a state with over 5 million people.

Nebraska
2006 Average Football Attendance: 85,044
TV Market: Lincoln (104) (also offers Omaha, Sioux City, and the rest of Nebraska)
Where could they go? Big Ten
What do they have to offer? Historical Top 10 football program, with fanatical following and national recognition. Money generated by football supports strong all-around athletic program. Borders Big Ten state of Iowa. Member of AAU.
What’s the holdup? Big Ten has a line of more convenient options. However, Nebraska brings a lot to the table, and is considering options in case they become unhappy with Big XII revenue sharing/generation.

Big XII Rumblings, Part 2

As I wrote earlier, the Big 12 finds itself in a bit of conflict over revenue sharing. The high-revenue schools, such as Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Texas A&M see no problem with the status quo, where half of football and non-conference basketball television money are distributed to the schools based on appearances. Up until now, it’s been an issue, but not a deal-breaker. A school such as Texas is bringing in about $1.5 million more per year under this setup, than they would if all revenues were shared equally. With the advent of the new, more lucrative, TV contract, this becomes more of an issue with the Kansas States of the world.

As I mentioned earlier, the new commissioner will have to broker a deal that will please everyone. In a perfect world, Texas, OU, and Nebraska shouldn’t have to give up revenue they have earned from having high-profile football programs. At the same time, it would cost one of these schools more money to switch conferences than they would give up through equal revenue sharing. Equal revenue sharing helps build the conference by treating all members equally, instead of as Texas, Oklahoma and Friends. It hasn’t hurt Ohio State and Michigan to help Northwestern. Ohio State now has an athletic budget of over $100,000,000. I have read that Northwestern is getting more from the new Big Ten TV deal than Notre Dame will from their exclusive deal with NBC. I don't know if that's true, but it’s pretty incredible for that to even be a possibility. By and large, the schools and alumni/population bases of the Big 12 are smaller than those of the Big Ten, therefore not commanding the same amount of money. Nonetheless, the schools of the Big 12 can work together toward solutions that benefit everyone.

There needs to be a major BCS conference in the middle of the country. Texas and OU need conference mates and true partners, not merely patsies to fill schedules in multiple sports. I'm not saying that the other ten schools are patsies in every sport. However, there is a big difference in revenue generated and spent. All-around athletic success tends to correlate with money for facilities, coaches, travel, etc. Here are some figures for athletic expenditures for 2006, from midmajority.com:

Texas: $83,600,248
Oklahoma: $64,322,580
Nebraska: $63,695,480
Texas A&M: $61,419,536
Texas Tech: $53,337,768
Kansas: $47,554,572
Colorado: $45,731,544
Missouri: $45,184,836
Oklahoma State: $44,061,812
Baylor: $36,228,960
Kansas State: $34,834,468
Iowa State: $32,541,236

I am as big of a free-market capitalist as there is out there. I hate socialism. But, when it comes to sports leagues, the NFL has proven that revenue sharing benefits everyone. In the NFL, what helps Green Bay eventually helps New York. New York doesn’t benefit from a weak franchise in Green Bay.

A league is no stronger than its weakest link.

To come: Options for conference members, in case of a breakup.

Big XII Rumblings, Part I

Last week, as I was on blogging sabbatical, the Big XII was rocked (well, that’s a strong word) by the resignation of commissioner Kevin Weiberg. Weiberg is leaving the Big 12 after 8 ½ years for a newly created position with the Big Ten Network.

As a fan of the University of Oklahoma, I am glad to see this happen. OU was ill-served by the conference office on three occasions in the last two years: the football officiating debacle at Texas Tech in 2005, the highway robbery in football at Oregon last season, and the elbowing incident involving Longar Longar in a basketball game at Texas Tech. In each case, the interests of OU were not defended, forcing the OU administration to defend itself. Furthermore, the commissioner allowed Tech coach Bob Knight to bully him into suspending Longar for two games as a result of an unintentional elbow, ignoring the pleas of the OU administration.

The conference, however, faces bigger problems. There is unrest in the league regarding revenue sharing. Currently, the league splits all non-television revenue equally. Conference members also split half of all television revenue equally. The other half of television revenue is placed in an “appearance pool”. This money is distributed based on football TV appearances and non-conference national TV appearances in basketball. This benefits schools like Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska (football), as well as Kansas (basketball). The more powerful programs earn up to $1-1/2 million more per year than the less-exposed schools under this plan.

Lesser-exposed members would like to see the Big XII follow the lead of the Big Ten and ACC, and share all revenue equally. This idea goes over like a lead balloon at places such as the University of Nebraska, who is considering the option of leaving the conference if they lose money in any revenue-restructuring deal. Currently, the conference requires 9 of the 12 schools to vote in favor of rewriting the conference constitution. As it stands now, 8 of the schools would be in favor of revenue sharing. Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Texas A&M are in favor of the status quo. Rumor is that A&M may be on the fence, and could change their position.

The Big XII is in an unenviable position. There are really only three programs that can draw a national audience, or large numbers of casual fans, for a television appearance against any random opponent. This explains why OU will play North Texas on national cable television in September, and why Texas can play Louisiana-Lafayette on national cable television. Therefore, Texas, OU, and Nebraska can bring in more money for TV appearances.

The lesser-exposed members argue that revenue sharing would make for a greater spirit of cooperation in the conference, resulting in more exposure and money for everyone involved. They point to the Big Ten and their new television deal as an example. The early NFL would be another example, as franchises such as New York and Cleveland gave up lucrative local TV deals in the 60’s so the league could share revenues from their national TV deal with CBS. The NFL mushroomed into the most valuable television property in the U.S.

OU, Texas, and Nebraska can also make the argument that they should get to keep the money they have earned, by having high-powered football programs that fans will watch on TV.

The next commissioner will have to broker a solution to this dilemma. The conference cannot afford to disintegrate. If the conference were to break up, the lesser-exposed schools would suffer the most.

At this point, I think rumors of a Big 12 breakup are premature and preposterous. But, anything can happen. In a future post, I will post possible scenarios for conference members.