College Football Projections: Big Ten

The Conference That Can’t Count, aka the Big Ten, enters this season with a questionable national reputation, as Ohio State has dominated the conference for two seasons in a row only to be plastered by SEC teams in the BCS National Championship Game. But, as people in Columbus will tell you, it’s better to lose the National Championship Game than to win the Orville Redenbacher’s Popcorn Bowl. Actually, I don’t know if anyone in Columbus would say that, but it’s true.

Ohio State will be the king of the mountain in this conference once again. They should be favored in every game except a September trip to the Coliseum in Los Angeles, where USC awaits. I do not see them going undefeated, but they will win the conference. This would send the Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl, where they have not appeared in over a decade.

The rest of the conference is anyone’s guess. Wisconsin should be good enough to finish second. After that, Penn State and Michigan should be respectable, as usual. In addition, Michigan State and Iowa should be able to contend for a first division finish. Illinois and Purdue will be decent as well, though the Illini should take a step back from last year’s Rose Bowl appearance.

Dragging bottom in the Big Ten will be Minnesota, Indiana, and Northwestern. Northwestern has an unfavorable schedule, but has a chance to outperform expectations. Indiana will crash back to earth after last season’s bowl appearance. Minnesota can’t help but improve over last season’s victory total: one.

Projected Finish:
Ohio State 11-1, 8-0
Wisconsin 10-2, 6-2
Penn State 9-3, 5-3
Iowa 8-4, 5-3
Michigan State 8-4, 5-3
Michigan 8-4, 4-4
Illinois 7-5, 4-4
Purdue 7-5, 4-4
Minnesota 5-7, 2-6
Indiana 4-8, 1-7
Northwestern 3-9, 0-8

Knee-Jerk Reactions

A knee-jerk reaction while observing the early games:

The Big Ten is really horrible this year.

Wisconsin is finally pulling away from The Citadel, but was tied with them at the half.

Minnesota is getting drilled by Florida Atlantic.

Iowa is losing to previously woeful Iowa State.

This is in addition to what Michigan has already done/not done. Penn State, Purdue, and Michigan State look pretty good. The jury is still out on Ohio State. We'll know more about the Buckeyes around 6 PM Central time, after their game with Washington.

Outside the Big Ten, Syracuse is really awful. They are being hammered for the third week in a row, this time by Illinois of the Big Ten. Their football team is as bad as their uniforms. And, those guys still have to look forward to West Virginia, Rutgers, Louisville, and South Florida.

NCAA Projections: Big Ten (Or, Where Hooters Meets William Henry Harrison)

Today's blog post comes from Hooters in King of Prussia, PA. My wife won't come here with me, and I won't bring my kids here, but I like the wings and the free wi-fi. I'm serious!

Pennsylvania is Big Ten country, or it has been for the last 15 years since Penn State became the 11th member of the conference. With that in mind, I will project The Conference That Can't Count.

This conference is made up of big state schools with big enrollments, big stadiums, big alumni bases, and big TV markets. Well, all of them except Northwestern, who brings a big TV market and a history with the rest of the conference. The biggest and baddest of those schools are the triumvirate of Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan. For what it's worth, Wisconsin has given them a run for their money in recent years, in both football and basketball.

Last year, Ohio State and Michigan were undefeated at the end of the season, heading into their matchup in Columbus. Ohio State went on to lay an egg in the BCS national championship game, while Michigan got creamed by USC in the Rose Bowl.

This year, it's the Wolverines' turn to win the conference. The Maize and Blue look really strong, and get Penn State and Ohio State on their home field in Ann Arbor. I look for Michigan to trip up on a late-season road trip to Wisconsin. Outside of that, they would be a strong candidate for the BCS national championship game.

Penn State will also come up big this year. I have them losing only one game: a mid-season trip to Michigan. This will put them in contention for a BCS at-large berth, as they would lose the tiebreaker to Michigan in my projection.

Ohio State will be good, as usual. However, they won't be so lucky in trips to Penn State and Michigan, and will have to settle for a nice bowl trip to Florida.

Wisconsin and Iowa will both be good, but not quite on the level of the top three teams in the conference. I wouldn't want to play either of those teams, though.

Purdue, Indiana, and Northwestern will also be bowl-eligible. In Indiana's case, it's a big deal. The Hoosiers haven't been to a bowl since William Henry Harrison fought the Battle of Tippecanoe. They are also dealing with the tragic loss of coach Terry Hoeppner, who died recently from brain cancer.

Big Ten Projected Standings:

Michigan 11-1 7-1
Penn State 11-1 7-1
Ohio State 10-2 6-2
Wisconsin 9-3 5-3
Iowa 9-3 5-3
Purdue 7-5 4-4
Indiana 7-5 3-5
Northwestern 6-6 2-6
Illinois 5-7 2-6
Michigan State 5-7 2-6
Minnesota 5-7 1-7

Eleven Plus One=Ten, Continued

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany backtracked this week on expansion discussion. It seems that he opened up an entire can of worms when he mentioned it last week.

I think just the opposite is happening. I believe the Big Ten, behind closed doors, is actively searching for a 12th member, preferably in an adjacent state. Now that the Big Ten Network is a factor, the conference needs to expand their footprint. I have seen goofy speculation mentioning schools such as Texas, Tennessee, and Kentucky. I don't look for the Big Ten/Eleven to think that far out of the box.

I do look for the Big Ten to rock the Big 12's world, by peeling off the University of Missouri. This makes sense for several reasons. 1) Missouri is an adjacent state, with two large TV markets in St. Louis and Kansas City. The Big Ten would solidify their place in the St. Louis market with this move. 2) Mizzou has a competitive, but not great athletic program. They provide the ability to generate revenue without providing a huge threat to schools such as Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. 3) The Big Ten can offer more money, especially with the advent of the Big Ten Network. Unlike the Big 12, the Big Ten shares all television revenue equally among all schools. This would be attractive to Mizzou, especially compared to the Texas-dominated Big 12. 4) The Big Ten is an academic conference, in addition to an athletic conference. The opportunity to participate in prestigious academic research projects with fellow conference members would be too much to pass up.

Missouri would leave more than a century of history behind, as a charter member of the Big 6/7/8 and Big 12. However, this is the 21st century, and money talks.

What would happen to the Big 12? First, this would solidify the Big Ten Network, providing a blueprint for the SEC to start their own network. With this in mind, the SEC would be wise to look toward Texas to add more television sets. This can be done by adding Texas and Texas A&M. A&M would go in a heartbeat. Texas would go where they can generate the most revenue. If this scenario happens, all bets are off. It would not be farfetched for the SEC to expand to 14 or even 16 schools, if there is enough money to justify the move.

The next commissioner of the Big 12 faces the responsibility of keeping the league together. That will be easier said than done.

Eleven Plus One=Ten?

The Conference That Can't Count, a/k/a the Big Ten, is considering expansion again. After adding Penn State as its eleventh member, the conference kept the name Big Ten, thus receiving ridicule for its inability to count. The conference is now looking for a twelfth member.

The impetus for expansion interest comes from the newly formed Big Ten Network. The cable/satellite channel premieres in late August. The network is jointly owned by the Big Ten and Fox. The network is already scheduled to be carried on Directv, and by several cable companies. However, the BTN has not struck deals with Dish Network, Comcast, and Time Warner. The latter two are the largest cable companies in the region.

The interesting thing to note here is that this talk is not being driven by the potential revenue of a conference championship game, but by potential cable/satellite TV revenue. The BTN is charging cable/satellite providers only 10 cents per subscriber outside the Big Ten region, but is charging $1.10 per subscriber in the eight Big Ten states. So, the Big Ten is looking to add a new member in an adjacent state, in order to increase revenue for the BTN. The conference projects an additional $5.5-7.5 million per year to be distributed to each school as a result of the BTN.

There is no guarantee that there would be a Big Ten championship game. For starters, Ohio State and Michigan would be opposed to it, as it would detract from their existing season-ending showdown. But, such a game would generate an incredible amount of revenue.

Who would become the 12th member? Syracuse? Rutgers? Missouri? All of those schools are located in adjacent states, and have academic reputations that would be acceptable to the current Big Ten membership. Notre Dame? They will remain independent as long as NBC gives them big money for their TV contract. Pittsburgh? Doesn't bring anything to the table that Penn State doesn't already bring. West Virginia? Viewed as academically inferior.

The Big Ten Network, if it succeeds, will revolutionize college sports. The SEC is watching eagerly, as they are ready to create their own cable channel. These networks are likely to drive another round of conference expansion and turnover.