College Football Projections: SEC

The world’s greatest college football conference resides in Dixie. Not only is it the home of the last two national champions (Florida, LSU), but it is must-see TV every week, no matter who is playing. CBS and ESPN recognize this, as the SEC just renewed their television contract with them for an extra 15 years. In ESPN’s case, they are paying the Confederate Conference $2.25 billion over the next 15 years. This is money well spent. Nowhere is there a greater combination of quality of play, athletic ability, atmosphere, and passion than in the SEC. This makes the SEC worth watching, no matter who is playing over on the other network.

This season, the Georgia Bulldogs come off a strong finish in 2007 and are the #1 team in the nation in pre-season polls. I like this team a lot. However, their schedule is too tough to cruise through undefeated. The Bulldogs make a rare non-conference road trip to Arizona State, along with SEC tilts at South Carolina, LSU, and Auburn, along with the No-Longer-Officially-Cocktail Party against Florida.

Speaking of Florida, the Gators return a Heisman Trophy winner. They should also be favored in every game except one: the No-Longer-Officially-Cocktail Party against Georgia. The Gators make it to the SEC Championship Game Presented By Dr Pepper.

This is make-it-or-break-it time in South Carolina. The Gamecocks were ranked in the Top 10 at mid-season last year, only to crash to a 6-6 record, missing out on a bowl trip. Steve Spurrier should have his best season in Columbia, but it won’t be good enough to pass Florida and Georgia. However, he’ll finish ahead of his old nemesis, Phil Fulmer at Tennessee. Kentucky will rebuild, and Vanderbilt will be Vanderbilt: first in SATs, last in football.

The West holds claim to the defending national champion LSU Tigers. The Tigers, like Georgia, have a tough schedule with road trips to Auburn, Florida, and South Carolina. This works against the Tigers, and will be the difference between the BCS and someplace like the Citrus Bowl. Auburn, in the meantime, is loaded for a national championship run, and should win the West to appear in the SECCG.

Alabama, in their second year under Nick Saban, isn’t quite ready for conference championship contention. The Tide will make a bowl game, though. Ole Miss will surprise some people under new coach Houston Nutt, formerly of Arkansas. Mississippi State will also be respectable. Arkansas will struggle in their first year in the system of new coach Bobby Petrino.

Projected Finish:
East
Florida 11-1, 7-1
Georgia 10-2, 6-2
South Carolina 9-3, 6-2
Tennessee 8-4, 4-4
Kentucky 5-7, 2-6
Vanderbilt 2-10, 0-8
West
Auburn 11-1, 8-0
LSU 9-3, 5-3
Alabama 7-5, 4-4
Ole Miss 6-6, 3-5
Mississippi State 6-6, 3-5
Arkansas 2-10, 0-8

A Giant Boom

There are some big games being played this weekend. However, they pale in comparison to tonight's events at the SEC tournament in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.

Mississippi State led Alabama by three points with two minutes left in overtime, when part of the roof started falling in. A tornado hit downtown Atlanta, tearing two holes into the side of the building. Atlanta has some really strange weather, with snowstorms and tornadoes occurring within a month of each other. However, this takes the cake. Their weather sounds like the weather in Oklahoma.

Word is that they are going to resume play tonight. I'd be shocked if they could get another arena for three days on short notice. There are a lot of Kentucky Wildcat fans in town to accomodate. The Atlanta folks will need to get the Georgia Dome in some kind of safe shape, fast.

Wild stuff.

Update: The weather cleared enough for Mississippi State to finish Alabama off in the overtime. Another storm moved through downtown Atlanta and made the Georgia Dome an unsafe place to be. SEC officials postponed Friday's late game between Georgia and Kentucky. The rest of the tournament is in doubt.

At this point, it doesn't really matter if the rest of the tournament is played. The fans are in Atlanta spending money already. The Kentucky fans will go ahead and party in Atlanta without any games. The remaining teams are already a cinch to make the NCAA tournament, except for Georgia, who probably wouldn't be able to beat Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Tennessee or Arkansas all in a row. So, the only variable is what to do with the unused tickets, and with the TV coverage. If the building and event is properly insured, the SEC should be able to refund the value of the unused tickets to the fans. The SEC would also be forced to refund TV partners Raycom and CBS for games not played and not shown.

All of the above is a small price to pay for safety. Luckily, no one was hurt at the Dome in tonight's storm.

Second update: The pooh-bahs of the SEC have decided to move the tournament to Alexander Memorial Coliseum at Georgia Tech. Ironic, since Georgia Tech is a former SEC member. Since the Georgia Tech arena only holds around 9,000 people, only family members, cheerleaders, bands, and other selected people are being allowed into the arena to watch the games. The SEC is refunding money for tickets sold to the Georgia Dome. It would stink for someone that has driven all the way from Kentucky to see this thing, only to watch it on TV in a sports bar.

Speaking of Kentucky, the Wildcats will play their quarterfinal game with Georgia today at 12 noon local time. The winner will play Mississippi State tonight at 9 pm local time, following the Tennessee-Arkansas game. Shades of AAU tournaments for these guys, where they played multiple games in one day. Sunday's final has been delayed by two hours in order to facilitate a little rest for the UK/UGa-MSU winner.

NCAA Projections: SEC

The last conference projection in this blog is for the SEC.

I love the SEC. It is perhaps my favorite conference. I'm not fanatical about any of the teams, but I love to see them beat up on each other. It's Southern fried football at its best.

The East division is traditionally the toughest in college football. Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee are perennially strong. Now, South Carolina, in the third year of coach Steve Spurrier, looks to make that threesome a quartet. When we last saw the Florida Gators, they were making mincemeat out of Ohio State in the national championship game. The Gators will always be good as long as Urban Meyer is the coach. This year looks to be a relative down year for the Gators, but only due to the schedule. Florida must travel to LSU and South Carolina. I look for them to lose both of those games.

Georgia will win the East division, in spite of a loss to Florida. Georgia never beats Florida, no matter how good they are. I'll go with history there. The new wrinkle to this division, though, has been added by the Gamecocks of South Carolina and their coach, Steve Spurrier. The 'Cocks continue to improve. They will pass Tennessee in the SEC pecking order. This is not good news for Vols coach Phil Fulmer. Just when the Vols were through with Spurrier, their nemesis ends up at South Carolina and becomes a pain in the Big Orange posterior there.

In the West, LSU looks to be favored in every game they play. I think they will be very good, and their toughest opponents are at home. Arkansas has a Heisman Trophy candidate in Darren McFadden, but enough off-field controversy for the National Enquirer. Auburn will be pretty decent, and Alabama will bounce back under new coach Nick Saban.

SEC Projections:

East
Georgia 11-1 7-1
Florida 10-2 6-2
South Carolina 9-3 5-3
Tennessee 7-5 4-4
Kentucky 5-7 2-6
Vanderbilt 4-8 1-7

West
LSU 12-0 8-0
Arkansas 9-3 5-3
Alabama 8-4 5-3
Auburn 8-4 4-4
Ole Miss 4-8 1-7
Mississippi State 3-9 0-8

Eleven Plus One=Ten, Continued

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany backtracked this week on expansion discussion. It seems that he opened up an entire can of worms when he mentioned it last week.

I think just the opposite is happening. I believe the Big Ten, behind closed doors, is actively searching for a 12th member, preferably in an adjacent state. Now that the Big Ten Network is a factor, the conference needs to expand their footprint. I have seen goofy speculation mentioning schools such as Texas, Tennessee, and Kentucky. I don't look for the Big Ten/Eleven to think that far out of the box.

I do look for the Big Ten to rock the Big 12's world, by peeling off the University of Missouri. This makes sense for several reasons. 1) Missouri is an adjacent state, with two large TV markets in St. Louis and Kansas City. The Big Ten would solidify their place in the St. Louis market with this move. 2) Mizzou has a competitive, but not great athletic program. They provide the ability to generate revenue without providing a huge threat to schools such as Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. 3) The Big Ten can offer more money, especially with the advent of the Big Ten Network. Unlike the Big 12, the Big Ten shares all television revenue equally among all schools. This would be attractive to Mizzou, especially compared to the Texas-dominated Big 12. 4) The Big Ten is an academic conference, in addition to an athletic conference. The opportunity to participate in prestigious academic research projects with fellow conference members would be too much to pass up.

Missouri would leave more than a century of history behind, as a charter member of the Big 6/7/8 and Big 12. However, this is the 21st century, and money talks.

What would happen to the Big 12? First, this would solidify the Big Ten Network, providing a blueprint for the SEC to start their own network. With this in mind, the SEC would be wise to look toward Texas to add more television sets. This can be done by adding Texas and Texas A&M. A&M would go in a heartbeat. Texas would go where they can generate the most revenue. If this scenario happens, all bets are off. It would not be farfetched for the SEC to expand to 14 or even 16 schools, if there is enough money to justify the move.

The next commissioner of the Big 12 faces the responsibility of keeping the league together. That will be easier said than done.

An Unbalanced League

The SEC, home of last year's national champion and one other Final Four participant, finds itself as a very unbalanced league this year. The conference's power lies in the East division, where Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Tennessee reside. Georgia, with an 8-7 conference record after tonight, would be in first place in the West division. No wonder some bracket analysts have Georgia as a bubble team, in spite of their 17-11 record. And, two-time defending NIT champion South Carolina most likely will not be back to defend that crown.

The West division is in serious danger of not qualifying any teams for the NCAA tournament. Alabama has the best post-season chances on this side of the league, as they moved back into a tie for first place tonight with a win over Ole Miss. The Tide won their 20th game of the season, but are only 7-8 in conference play. Ole Miss and Mississippi State are also tied with Bama at 7-8.

The SEC, as usual, is underrated and underexposed in hoops.