And, this will be very brief, as I'm in New York on business and I need to go to bed.
By the way, welcome to anyone who may be passing by. The traffic for this blog has increased exponentially this week as America has been filling out brackets. To all that have stopped by: Thank you!
This was perhaps the most nondescript first round day in the recent history of the NCAA tournament. The closest thing to an upset was 11th seed Kansas State over USC. Belmont nearly shocked Duke, but close only counts in horseshoes and handgrenades. If you like favorites, today was your day.
32 more teams go at it tomorrow. I'm going to bed, going to work, and flying back to Texas.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
West Regional Preview and Analysis
The last bracket is in the West. UCLA is once again the team to beat on the Left Coast. Sound familiar?
UCLA spends the first two rounds down the freeway in Anaheim. They play their first game against Mississippi Valley State. The Delta Devils may wish they hadn’t made the tournament when UCLA is through with them. The Bruins go on to play the winner of the matchup between Mitt Romney U. and George H.W. Bush U. Oops, that’s BYU and Texas A&M. The Fightin’ Texas Aggies handle the guys from Provo, then give UCLA a fight before falling short.
One of the best stories of the year has been the Drake Bulldogs, in their first NCAA tournament since baskets were made of wood. Well, not quite, but 1971 was a long time ago. Drake starts with a game against Western Kentucky. This will be a pretty good game, and don’t be surprised if WKU pulls the 5-12 upset off. I’m picking Drake, though. The Bulldogs go on to face Connecticut. The Huskies will pulverize San Diego. UConn will then go on to the Sweet 16 by ending Drake’s dream season.
In the other half of the bracket, the Purdue Boilermakers return to the tournament with a matchup against the Baylor Bears. The Bears had an anxious Selection Sunday, as they were the last team announced in the bracket. It has been an incredible rise from the ashes of death and probation for the Bears. They have guards that can shoot like crazy. The Bears get hot and shock the Boilermakers. They will go on to play Xavier, who brings Georgia’s spectacular run to an end. The X-men then move on to the Sweet 16 in Phoenix with a win over Baylor.
The last pod is in Washington D.C., where West Virginia faces Arizona. The Mountaineers make the tournament in coach Bob Huggins’ first year. They get a first-round win over an Arizona team that barely made the tournament. This sets up a matchup with the Duke Blue Devils, who get a win over Belmont. Duke then beats West Virginia to earn a trip to Phoenix.
In Phoenix, UCLA meets up with UConn. The Huskies should be proud of their season, because it ends in the desert at the hands of the Bruins. The other game out West will pit Xavier and Duke. Xavier becomes America’s Team by playing the hated Duke Blue Devils. The X-men make another trip to the Elite Eight, where they become fodder for the UCLA Final Four run. UCLA is once again the best in the West.
South Regional Preview and Analysis
This tournament is so big, it takes two days to break it down. The next regional is the South Regional. The South will be decided at the World’s Largest Rodeo Arena, aka Reliant Stadium in Houston. Memphis is the top seed here, but will be challenged by Texas.
Elvis’ Team begins their run a few miles down I-40 in North Little Rock. The Memphis Tigers get to play UT-Arlington. The Movin’ Mavs make their first NCAA appearance in history this week, and it could be ugly. Memphis has been playing teams like this all season in Conference USA. I’d like for UTA to make it interesting, but Memphis wins big here. The Tigers play the winner of an evenly matched game between Mississippi State and Oregon. The Ducks better leave the ugly uniforms at home. Mississippi State wins to set up a game with nearby Memphis. MSU throws everything but the kitchen sink at Memphis, but comes up short. Memphis earns a trip to Houston for the Sweet 16.
Way up in the mountains in Denver, Michigan State finds themselves in the favored end of a dreaded 5-12 matchup with Temple. There will be amateur bracketologists out there falling all over themselves to pick Temple. This isn’t the 5-12 upset. MSU wins. They move on to play Pittsburgh, who makes it past a gritty Oral Roberts team. This sets up a great 2nd round matchup between Pittsburgh and Michigan State. This will be the definition of a physical game. Pittsburgh is hot, and moves on to the Sweet 16 with a win over the Spartans.
In the Disneyland pod, played in Anaheim, Marquette takes on the Kentucky Wildcats. UK had a horrific non-conference season, and was hit hard by injuries in the conference season, but still went 12-4 in the SEC. It’s a long way to California for Big Blue Nation. This year, though, the Cats are glad to be in the tournament. Marquette beat UK for a trip to the Final Four five years ago, and gets past the Cats in the first round this year. They move on to take on the Stanford Trees, winners of the SAT Bowl in their first round game with Cornell. Stanford is glad to be out of Pac 10 play, and takes it out on Marquette in the second round.
Back in North Little Rock, the traditional basketball powerhouses of Miami and St. Mary’s meet. Miami represents the ACC, but St. Mary’s is a little better. They earn the right to play Texas, winners over Austin (Let’s Go) Peay. The Longhorns cruise over both Peay and St. Mary’s.
In Houston, Memphis and Pittsburgh meet in a barnburner. Memphis wins a close one in spite of their horrible free throw shooting. Texas sends Stanford back to the Farm. This sets up a game Memphis is suspicious of: playing Texas in their back yard for a trip to the Final Four. Texas gets the best of Memphis to make their second final four this decade under Rick Barnes.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Midwest Regional Preview and Analysis
The Midwest regional is to be played in beautiful downtown Detroit, Michigan. The Kansas Jayhawks, co-regular season and tournament champions of the Big 12 Conference, are the top seed and are favored to advance to the Final Four.
KU starts their road in nearby Omaha, where their fans will take over the building and make the local chamber of commerce very happy. Their first game will be a relative scrimmage with Portland State, making their first appearance in the Big Dance. The Jayhawks would then play the winner of the game between UNLV and Kent State. The Rebels won the Mountain West tournament on their home court last week. Kent State has won 28 games and is a very dangerous team. The Golden Flashes should have their way with UNLV, and present a challenge for KU in round 2 (remember Rhode Island and Bucknell?). KU wins, barely.
The Clemson Tigers are enjoying one of the best seasons in their history, and play perhaps the last team selected for this year’s tournament in Villanova. Clemson handles Villanova in the dreaded 5-12 game, and goes on to meet Vanderbilt, expected winners over (Burnt) Siena. The Tigers then earn a trip to the Sweet 16 with a tough win over Vandy.
In the bottom half of the bracket, the summer league dream matchup takes place, as O.J. Mayo’s team (USC) takes on Michael Beasley’s team (Kansas State). Both of these guys will be getting paid big bucks next year. This year, USC will be too much for K-State, who underachieved this year by playing inconsistently in conference play. The winners plays Wisconsin, who will annihilate Cal State-Fullerton. Wisconsin is very strong, and should probably be a 2nd seed instead of a #3. Wisconsin takes out the O.J. Mayos in round 2 to earn a trip to the Motor City.
Another suspicious matchup of mid-majors pits Gonzaga with Davidson. Gonzaga is not really a mid-major any more, but they are in a mid-major conference. Davidson played anybody and everybody in their non-conference schedule before winning 23 in a row in the Southern Conference. This game is in Raleigh, and the Carolina fans will jump on the Davidson bandwagon. The Zags got a really tough draw. Davidson advances. They will take on Georgetown, who muscles their way past the Retrievers of Maryland-Baltimore County. The Davidson magic ends in the 2nd round, where they fall to Georgetown.
The regional in Detroit features Kansas vs. Clemson and Wisconsin vs. Georgetown. KU should handle Clemson. Wisconsin vs. Georgetown would be a slugfest. Wisconsin wins a close one to get to the Elite Eight once again. Bo Ryan’s team makes KU earn it, but the Jayhawks finally get to the Final Four for the first time in the Bill Self era.
East Regional Preview and Analysis
The first of four regions this blog will break down is the East. North Carolina is the top seed here, as well as in the whole tournament. The regional final will be played down the road in Charlotte. The Tar Heels are favored to win this regional, but it will not be easy for them.
The Heels get to play the winner of the opening-round game in the first round, then will play the winner of the Arkansas-Indiana game. Arky won three in a row at last week’s SEC tournament before running into the Georgia juggernaut. Indiana is reeling in a bad way since the midseason dismissal of coach Kelvin Sampson for repeated recruiting violations. You have to go with the team on the upswing here, and that is the Hogs. The Hogs will put up a gallant effort against the Tar Heels, but Carolina is too much.
Elsewhere in this bracket, the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame take on the Patriots of George Mason in the dreaded 5-12 matchup. Every year, a 5th seed is upset by a 12th seed. History suggests that it will happen here. Notre Dame was upset in the first round last year by Winthrop. G-Mase made an unlikely march to the Final Four in 2006. I predict Mason to knock off the Leprechauns. Speaking of Winthrop, they could play the winner of this game by upsetting Washington State. The Eagles have played themselves into their 8th NCAA tournament in 10 years. Wazzu is a solid team, though, and will beat Winthrop in a close one. Wazzu then knocks off G-Mase to go to the Sweet 16.
In the bottom half of the bracket, my Oklahoma Sooners are an unexpected 6th seed and go to Birmingham, Alabama to take the St. Joseph’s Hawks. OU is a feast or famine team. If the guards are on, the Sooners win. If they’re not, they lose. I’d love to see OU get on a roll in this tournament. My gut doesn’t see it happening. I’m picking St. Joe’s. The Hawks would take on the winner of the game between Louisville and Boise State. The Ville is primed for a deep run in this tournament. They take on the Broncos, survivors of a triple overtime win in the WAC tournament final and a four-team battle royal in the WAC. Boise can play a little, and this will be an interesting game. I’m going with the safe pick and Louisville. The Ville then handles St. Joe’s in the 2nd round.
In the fourth pod of this bracket, the Butler Bulldogs lurk with a chip on their shoulder. Ranked 10th in the polls at the end of the season, the committee stuck them with a 7th seed and a dangerous matchup with South Alabama. Are you as suspicious as I am about the committee’s pairing of two tough mid-majors in the first round? Butler survives and advances. Awaiting Butler is Tennessee, who will have their way with American University. The boys from Rocky Top then will be too much for Butler.
In the Sweet 16, we have Wazzu taking on North Carolina. UNC is a killing machine, and will take care of Washington State. The other matchup is a barnburner between Louisville and Tennessee, causing great angst in Lexington and Big Blue Nation. I like Tennessee’s team a lot, but I look for the Ville to handle them here. Which leads us to the Elite Eight, where Rick Pitino’s Louisville Cardinals meet up with Roy Williams’ North Carolina Tar Heels. It’s the year of the Tar Heel. The planets are lining up for them. Color this regional Carolina blue.
For $60,000...
...your team can host a game in a post-season tournament!
There is a new post-season tournament this season called the College Basketball Invitational. It is for teams that were snubbed by both the NCAA Tournament and the NIT. The organizers found 16 teams to play in this tournament, part of which is to be televised on Fox Sports Net and Fox College Sports.
Several teams from major conferences, such as Alabama, Missouri, and Texas Tech, balked at participating in this event. The organizers were asking for $60,000 in upfront money for schools to host a game. In addition, a host school would have had to organize an event and sell tickets in two days. Some schools said no. There were 16 schools that said yes.
This year's inagural CBI field includes: Virginia, Richmond, Old Dominion, Rider, Washington, Valparaiso, Houston, Nevada, UTEP, Utah, Tulsa, Miami (Ohio), Bradley, Cincinnati, Brown, and Ohio.
Of note: Cincinnati is in this tournament with a 13-18 record. The Bearcats had a good season in Big East play, but were awful in the pre-conference schedule. It would be funny if they won this tournament.
This event fills a void created when the NIT shrunk from 48 to 32 teams and began extending automatic bids to conference champions that did not win their post-season tournaments.
As bad as the CBI could be, it's better than some of the worthless football bowl games out there.
There is a new post-season tournament this season called the College Basketball Invitational. It is for teams that were snubbed by both the NCAA Tournament and the NIT. The organizers found 16 teams to play in this tournament, part of which is to be televised on Fox Sports Net and Fox College Sports.
Several teams from major conferences, such as Alabama, Missouri, and Texas Tech, balked at participating in this event. The organizers were asking for $60,000 in upfront money for schools to host a game. In addition, a host school would have had to organize an event and sell tickets in two days. Some schools said no. There were 16 schools that said yes.
This year's inagural CBI field includes: Virginia, Richmond, Old Dominion, Rider, Washington, Valparaiso, Houston, Nevada, UTEP, Utah, Tulsa, Miami (Ohio), Bradley, Cincinnati, Brown, and Ohio.
Of note: Cincinnati is in this tournament with a 13-18 record. The Bearcats had a good season in Big East play, but were awful in the pre-conference schedule. It would be funny if they won this tournament.
This event fills a void created when the NIT shrunk from 48 to 32 teams and began extending automatic bids to conference champions that did not win their post-season tournaments.
As bad as the CBI could be, it's better than some of the worthless football bowl games out there.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
NCAA Tournament Prediction and Analysis
It's Christmas, the 4th of July, and Columbus Day all rolled up into one! It's Selection Sunday, and the readership numbers of this blog have gone through the roof tonight. Welcome!
I'm analyzing the bracket, and just watched UCLA coach Ben Howland do an interview with ESPNU/ESPN2 on behalf of DirecTV. He sat in a studio with a DirecTV background, answered questions about the tournament, then shilled for the Mega March Madness package. I wonder how much he made for that? I want that gig.
I was not surprised by any of the top seeds. As a matter of fact, I have three of the four top seeds advancing to the Final Four. North Carolina, UCLA, and Kansas should make it to San Antonio. The fourth team will be Texas. It's a bit screwy that Memphis will probably play a lower-seeded team in its own state three years in a row. In 2006, the Tigers lost to UCLA in Oakland. Last year, Memphis beat Texas A&M in San Antonio. This year, the Tigers would meet Texas in a regional final in Houston.
Low and behold, there's Ben Howland on another channel talking college hoops and pimping DirecTV's Mega March Madness. Only $69!
This blog guessed 63 of the 65 participants in the field. The only ones I missed on were Villanova and Oregon. I guessed Virginia Tech and Illinois State instead. I did predict 52 of the 65 teams at or within one seed of their position.
The opening round is Tuesday night in Dayton, Ohio, between Mt. St. Mary's and Coppin State. This would probably be better played in Baltimore, but it was already booked for Dayton, so Dayton it is.
More analysis later... Click the graphic for predictions.
Tournament Bracket Prediction
Here is my predicted bracket for this year’s NCAA tournament. Click on the bracket to view the predictions. The real thing will come out at 5 PM Central time on CBS. This bracket is final, and reflects wins by Kansas over Texas and Georgia (yes, Georgia) over Arkansas.
I have made one major change from previous predictions. I believe that the tournament committee will invite Arizona to the tournament based on its non-conference schedule and injury time to their star player, Jerryd Bayless. Past committees have taken strength of schedule and injuries into account when selecting teams. Arizona State would have made the tournament, but Georgia stole their bid with their improbable run through the bizarre SEC tournament. Ohio State slides out. The Buckeyes are 2-10 against the top 50, hurting themselves in the eyes of the committee.
This blog accurately predicted 32 of the 34 at-large bids a year ago. This blog also predicted 44 of the 65 teams within one seed of their placement in last year’s bracket. Not bad for a guy not named Lunardi or Palm. (BTW, I like Jerry Palm a lot. He’s made a fine business out of bracketology) And, I do this for free.
The seedings are not necessarily based on rankings. The top four seeds are assigned to regional sites closest to home. The rest of the teams are then seeded in relative order. Teams are moved around to comply with NCAA tournament policies such as:
• No home court advantage for lower-seeded teams
• Teams hosting games are not allowed to play at home. For example, Georgetown is not allowed to play in the Washington, D.C. subregional this year.
• Rematches from the regular season are avoided
• Teams from the same conference cannot meet until the regional finals
• Teams from the same conference are placed in different regionals until each regional has a team from that conference
The tournament committee has a tough job. I wouldn’t mind doing it for a year, though. It would be kinda fun to hang out in a hotel in Indy for a week, eating pizza while breaking down film and data with athletic directors and ex-coaches.
Last four in: St. Joseph’s, Arizona, South Alabama, Illinois State
Last four out: Arizona State, Ohio State, Villanova, Oregon
Tournament Field Projection 3/16/08
Saturday saw a lot of wild action in a lot of conferences. All of these teams are looking to 6 PM Eastern time, when the selections are announced for this year's NCAA tournament.
This blog will have a final bracket projection this afternoon before the selections come out.
Teams with automatic bids to date:
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop
Colonial: George Mason
Horizon: Butler
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Missouri Valley: Drake (Illinois State should get an at-large bid)
Northeast: Mt. St. Mary’s
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: American
Southern: Davidson
Summit: Oral Roberts
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky (South Alabama should get an at-large bid)
West Coast: San Diego (Gonzaga and St. Mary’s should get at-large bids)
Reviews and comments on conferences still duking it out:
ACC
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech
UNC is ranked #1 in the country and won the regular season in the ACC. What counts on Tobacco Road, however, is the ACC Tournament, the nation’s oldest post-season tournament. North Carolina trailed the whole day before the great Tyler Hansbrough hit a jumper with .08 left to put away the Hokies of Virginia Tech. They go on to play Clemson. The Tigers, long the orange-headed football playing stepchild of the ACC, beat Duke for the first time in 11 years on Saturday. Clemson has never won an ACC Tournament, and has not been in the final since 1962.
America East
In: Maryland-Baltimore County
UMBC beat Hartford like a rented mule on Saturday to win the A-East title. This is the Retrievers’ first appearance in the Big Dance.
Atlantic 10
In: Xavier, St. Joseph’s, Temple
On the bubble: UMass, Dayton
Temple defeated St. Joseph’s on Saturday for the automatic bid. Xavier, of course, is in the tournament. St. Joseph’s is on the bubble, but should make it at this point. They make it due to a head to head win over and higher RPI rating than cross-town rival Villanova.
Big 12
In: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M
The Big 12 is strong this year. UT and KU took care of business Saturday and will meet for the automatic bid and possible #1 seed. OU, K-State, Baylor, and A&M should get good news from the selection committee on Sunday evening, as well.
Big East
In: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Connecticut, West Virginia, Pittsburgh
On the bubble: Villanova
16 teams are just way too many for one conference. This group of schools would probably squeeze out a couple more bids if they weren’t in the same conference. Pittsburgh once again created some magic in the Garden, winning another tournament final over Georgetown. This won’t help the Hoyas’ seeding. Elsewhere in the league, I have slid Villanova out of my latest bracket. The Wildcats are the last team out at this point, due their loss to and lower RPI ranking than St. Joseph’s.
Big Ten
In: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State
Some strange things are happening here. Wisconsin is proving itself to be the best team in this conference. The Badgers handled Michigan State today, while Illinois took care of Minnesota. If the Illini win their fourth game in four days against the Badgers, they will make the tournament with a losing overall record of 17-18. I doubt if the Illini have enough left in the tank for this one. It’s been good run in Indy this week for them, though. Elsewhere in the conference, Ohio State needs to sweat Selection Sunday, as they are close to the wrong side of the bubble. I look for them to get some love from the selection committee.
Big West
In: Cal State-Fullerton
The Titans of Cal State-Fullerton whipped Orange County rival UC Irvine to win the automatic bid from the Big West.
Conference USA
In: Memphis
Memphis owns this conference, lock, stock, and barrel. They proved it Saturday with a 77-51 win over Tulsa in a game that wasn’t even that close. The Tigers look to be a #1 seed when the brackets are released on Sunday.
Mid-American
In: Kent State
Beware of the Golden Flashes. Kent State won their 28th game tonight in grand fashion over nearby rival Akron. I wouldn’t want to draw Kent State in my bracket if I were a coach. These guys can play.
Mid-Eastern
In: Coppin State
Coppin State got their fourth win in four days, defeating regular season champion Morgan State 62-60. The Eagles were the seventh seed in the MEAC tournament, and are 14-20. I love it!
Mountain West
In: BYU, UNLV
What happens in Vegas doesn’t always stay in Vegas. UNLV used a strong second half to pound BYU, 76-61. Both teams will be in the field of 65.
Pac-10
In: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona State
On the Bubble: Oregon, Arizona
UCLA took care of Stanford to nail down the post-season tournament and a probable #1 seed in the Tournament. Arizona State, Oregon, and Arizona will be sweating bullets late Sunday afternoon. I have the Sun Devils barely in based on head-to-head results. The Wildcats could get some love from the committee due to some injuries earlier in the season, and have a high RPI and a high strength of schedule. I have them barely out of the bracket. Oregon is also close to the Field of 65, but not quite there.
SEC
In: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas
It was a bizarre day in Atlanta, as the teams played in front of family, cheerleaders, bands, and the leering press. Kentucky was expected to be the team that might pull the doubleheader sweep. Instead, it was the Georgia Bulldogs, owners of a 4-12 conference record and last place finish in the East division. Georgia got past Kentucky in the first game of the day, winning in overtime on a three-pointer by Zac Swansey. In the semifinals, Arkansas won a barnburner over Tennessee, 92-91. The Vols are most likely looking at a #2 seed in the Tournament. In the nightcap, Georgia upset West division champs Mississippi State, 64-60. The Bulldogs, possibly playing for coach Dennis Felton’s job, move to a record of 16-16 and can go to the Big Dance with a win over the Hogs.
Southland
In: Post-season tournament champion
UT-Arlington goes for their third win in a row, facing Northwestern State in Sunday’s final. Northwestern State is known for their tournament magic in 2006, when they upset Iowa in the first round. The Demons have a losing record at 15-17. If they win, they may be headed directly from the arena in Katy to Dayton, Ohio for a Tuesday night game with Coppin State. UTA, with a win, could make that Katy-to-Dayton trip, or would be a #16 seed, possibly playing Texas in the first round.
SWAC
In: Mississippi Valley State
Mississippi Valley State won the league tournament in a 59-58 nailbiter over Jackson State. The Delta Devils are still a candidate for the opening round game on Tuesday night in Dayton.
WAC
In: Boise State
Boise State went to Las Cruces and proved their worth, defeating New Mexico State on their home court in a 107-102 triple-overtime thriller to win the conference tournament. They’re known as giant killers in football, and they have a chance to do the same in hoops.
Last four teams in (rooting hard for Wisconsin and Arkansas to take out Illinois and Georgia): Arizona State, South Alabama, Illinois State, St. Joseph’s
Last four teams out (need a favor from the committee): Villanova, Oregon, Arizona, VCU
This blog will have a final bracket projection this afternoon before the selections come out.
Teams with automatic bids to date:
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop
Colonial: George Mason
Horizon: Butler
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Missouri Valley: Drake (Illinois State should get an at-large bid)
Northeast: Mt. St. Mary’s
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: American
Southern: Davidson
Summit: Oral Roberts
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky (South Alabama should get an at-large bid)
West Coast: San Diego (Gonzaga and St. Mary’s should get at-large bids)
Reviews and comments on conferences still duking it out:
ACC
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech
UNC is ranked #1 in the country and won the regular season in the ACC. What counts on Tobacco Road, however, is the ACC Tournament, the nation’s oldest post-season tournament. North Carolina trailed the whole day before the great Tyler Hansbrough hit a jumper with .08 left to put away the Hokies of Virginia Tech. They go on to play Clemson. The Tigers, long the orange-headed football playing stepchild of the ACC, beat Duke for the first time in 11 years on Saturday. Clemson has never won an ACC Tournament, and has not been in the final since 1962.
America East
In: Maryland-Baltimore County
UMBC beat Hartford like a rented mule on Saturday to win the A-East title. This is the Retrievers’ first appearance in the Big Dance.
Atlantic 10
In: Xavier, St. Joseph’s, Temple
On the bubble: UMass, Dayton
Temple defeated St. Joseph’s on Saturday for the automatic bid. Xavier, of course, is in the tournament. St. Joseph’s is on the bubble, but should make it at this point. They make it due to a head to head win over and higher RPI rating than cross-town rival Villanova.
Big 12
In: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M
The Big 12 is strong this year. UT and KU took care of business Saturday and will meet for the automatic bid and possible #1 seed. OU, K-State, Baylor, and A&M should get good news from the selection committee on Sunday evening, as well.
Big East
In: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Connecticut, West Virginia, Pittsburgh
On the bubble: Villanova
16 teams are just way too many for one conference. This group of schools would probably squeeze out a couple more bids if they weren’t in the same conference. Pittsburgh once again created some magic in the Garden, winning another tournament final over Georgetown. This won’t help the Hoyas’ seeding. Elsewhere in the league, I have slid Villanova out of my latest bracket. The Wildcats are the last team out at this point, due their loss to and lower RPI ranking than St. Joseph’s.
Big Ten
In: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State
Some strange things are happening here. Wisconsin is proving itself to be the best team in this conference. The Badgers handled Michigan State today, while Illinois took care of Minnesota. If the Illini win their fourth game in four days against the Badgers, they will make the tournament with a losing overall record of 17-18. I doubt if the Illini have enough left in the tank for this one. It’s been good run in Indy this week for them, though. Elsewhere in the conference, Ohio State needs to sweat Selection Sunday, as they are close to the wrong side of the bubble. I look for them to get some love from the selection committee.
Big West
In: Cal State-Fullerton
The Titans of Cal State-Fullerton whipped Orange County rival UC Irvine to win the automatic bid from the Big West.
Conference USA
In: Memphis
Memphis owns this conference, lock, stock, and barrel. They proved it Saturday with a 77-51 win over Tulsa in a game that wasn’t even that close. The Tigers look to be a #1 seed when the brackets are released on Sunday.
Mid-American
In: Kent State
Beware of the Golden Flashes. Kent State won their 28th game tonight in grand fashion over nearby rival Akron. I wouldn’t want to draw Kent State in my bracket if I were a coach. These guys can play.
Mid-Eastern
In: Coppin State
Coppin State got their fourth win in four days, defeating regular season champion Morgan State 62-60. The Eagles were the seventh seed in the MEAC tournament, and are 14-20. I love it!
Mountain West
In: BYU, UNLV
What happens in Vegas doesn’t always stay in Vegas. UNLV used a strong second half to pound BYU, 76-61. Both teams will be in the field of 65.
Pac-10
In: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona State
On the Bubble: Oregon, Arizona
UCLA took care of Stanford to nail down the post-season tournament and a probable #1 seed in the Tournament. Arizona State, Oregon, and Arizona will be sweating bullets late Sunday afternoon. I have the Sun Devils barely in based on head-to-head results. The Wildcats could get some love from the committee due to some injuries earlier in the season, and have a high RPI and a high strength of schedule. I have them barely out of the bracket. Oregon is also close to the Field of 65, but not quite there.
SEC
In: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas
It was a bizarre day in Atlanta, as the teams played in front of family, cheerleaders, bands, and the leering press. Kentucky was expected to be the team that might pull the doubleheader sweep. Instead, it was the Georgia Bulldogs, owners of a 4-12 conference record and last place finish in the East division. Georgia got past Kentucky in the first game of the day, winning in overtime on a three-pointer by Zac Swansey. In the semifinals, Arkansas won a barnburner over Tennessee, 92-91. The Vols are most likely looking at a #2 seed in the Tournament. In the nightcap, Georgia upset West division champs Mississippi State, 64-60. The Bulldogs, possibly playing for coach Dennis Felton’s job, move to a record of 16-16 and can go to the Big Dance with a win over the Hogs.
Southland
In: Post-season tournament champion
UT-Arlington goes for their third win in a row, facing Northwestern State in Sunday’s final. Northwestern State is known for their tournament magic in 2006, when they upset Iowa in the first round. The Demons have a losing record at 15-17. If they win, they may be headed directly from the arena in Katy to Dayton, Ohio for a Tuesday night game with Coppin State. UTA, with a win, could make that Katy-to-Dayton trip, or would be a #16 seed, possibly playing Texas in the first round.
SWAC
In: Mississippi Valley State
Mississippi Valley State won the league tournament in a 59-58 nailbiter over Jackson State. The Delta Devils are still a candidate for the opening round game on Tuesday night in Dayton.
WAC
In: Boise State
Boise State went to Las Cruces and proved their worth, defeating New Mexico State on their home court in a 107-102 triple-overtime thriller to win the conference tournament. They’re known as giant killers in football, and they have a chance to do the same in hoops.
Last four teams in (rooting hard for Wisconsin and Arkansas to take out Illinois and Georgia): Arizona State, South Alabama, Illinois State, St. Joseph’s
Last four teams out (need a favor from the committee): Villanova, Oregon, Arizona, VCU
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Minnesota Magic
Blake Hoffarber hits a miracle game-winning shot to beat Indiana. This was three years after he hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer sitting on his butt to tie the Minnesota high school state championship game.
Tubby Smith is a hero in Minnesota today.
Tournament Field Projections, 3/15/08
As usually happens on Friday of conference tournament week, a lot of things happened to shake up at-large bids and seeding in the NCAA tournament. There are teams showing life after mediocre regular seasons, and there are teams melting down. All of this sets up a crazy weekend. There are teams that want to make this tournament after all.
Teams with automatic bids to date:
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop
Colonial: George Mason
Horizon: Butler
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Missouri Valley: Drake (Illinois State should get an at-large bid)
Northeast: Mt. St. Mary’s
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Southern: Davidson
Summit: Oral Roberts
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky (South Alabama should get an at-large bid)
West Coast: San Diego (Gonzaga and St. Mary’s should get at-large bids)
Reviews and comments on conferences still duking it out:
ACC
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech
UNC is ranked #1 in the country and won the regular season in the ACC. What counts on Tobacco Road, however, is the ACC Tournament, the nation’s oldest post-season tournament. North Carolina and Duke took care of business today. So did Virginia Tech, firming up their imminent NCAA bid with a big win over Miami. For the second year in a row, the Hokies are in the semifinals of the ACC tournament. There have to be a lot of old school ACC people (hello, UVA, NC State, and Wake Forest) just sick about the success of the nouveau member Hokies in the ACC. It is a little strange to see Va Tech and Miami playing each other in this tournament. At the end of the day, though, it’s North Carolina’s tournament to lose.
America East
In: Winner of conference championship game
Either Maryland-Baltimore County or Hartford will qualify for their first NCAA tournament with a win on Saturday. UMBC won the regular season and will thus host the championship game against Hartford.
Atlantic 10
In: Xavier, either St. Joseph’s or Temple
On the bubble: UMass, St. Joseph’s-Temple loser
As I predicted and expected, Xavier was defeated in this tournament. St. Joseph’s did the deed, and is close to an at-large bid if they don’t earn the automatic bid on Saturday. Their opponent: their Philly buddies from Temple. The Big Five rivals will meet for the auto-bid Saturday evening in Atlantic City. Didn’t Miss America used to be crowned on Saturday night in Atlantic City?
Big 12
In: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M
The Big 12 is strong this year. UT and KU still have a slight chance for #1 seeds. OU and K-State are safely in the tournament. UT, KU, and OU won today to move into the semifinals. Texas A&M got a win over Kansas State on Friday to solidify, at last, their at-large bid. Baylor is still barely in the tournament despite an embarrassing double-overtime loss to Colorado.
Big East
In: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Connecticut, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Villanova
16 teams are just way too many for one conference. This group of schools would probably squeeze out a couple more bids if they weren’t in the same conference. Georgetown is proving itself to be the Beast of the East, having pummeled West Virginia on Friday. They will play Pittsburgh, who is making yet another run to the Saturday night stage at Madison Square Garden.
Big Ten
In: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State
Some strange things are happening here. On the top half of the bracket, Wisconsin and Michigan State advanced, as expected. Fireworks are flying on the lower half, though. 10th-seeded Illinois defeated Purdue in overtime, 74-67. Minnesota used a buzzer-beater to upset Indiana. There are a lot of teams out there hoping that Wisconsin or Michigan State take care of business. Meanwhile, Minnesota could be playing itself into an at-large possibility.
Big West
In: Post-season tournament champion
There were tri-champions in this league, and one of them is already gone in an upset, as UC Santa Barbara was taken out by UC Irvine in the battle of the UC’s. The Anteaters play Cal State-Fullerton, winner of the Cal State slugfest over Cal State-Northridge. When are the Banana Slugs of UC Santa Cruz going to join this league? Meanwhile, either Irvine or Fullerton gets bragging rights to the O.C. and a berth in the Big Dance.
Conference USA
In: Memphis
Memphis owns this conference, lock, stock, and barrel. The Tigers walked through a scrimmage with Southern Miss in Friday’s semifinal. The designated victim in Saturday’s championship game is the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. TU has won three in a row this week, two in overtime, including Friday’s win over UTEP.
Mid-American
In: Kent State
This conference belongs to Summit County, Ohio. Akron returns to the final with a win over Western Michigan. The Zips lost last year’s championship on a three-point prayer by Miami (Ohio), and were subsequently snubbed by both the NCAA and NIT. They take on nearby rival and regular season champ Kent State, winners of 27 games this season. Expect the unexpected at the Q in Cleveland Saturday night.
Mid-Eastern
In: Post-season tournament champion
Baltimore is well-represented here, as Coppin State and Morgan State are playing each other for a trip to the Big Dance. Morgan State is the regular season champ. And, no, the school was not named after me.
Mountain West
In: BYU, UNLV
BYU is in the tournament regardless of what happens. UNLV apparently secured an at-large bid with a win over Utah in the other semifinal.
Pac-10
In: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona State
On the Bubble: Oregon, Arizona
The suspense is over on the court in this conference. All the remaining teams are playing for seeding in the NCAA tournament. The real suspense is in the inner sanctum of the programs at Arizona State, Oregon, and Arizona. The conventional wisdom says that Arizona will make the tournament due to their top-ranked strength of schedule. I disagree. You have to beat at least one good team, and you have to beat the teams with which you are competing for that spot. Arizona State and Oregon took care of Arizona on the court. UCLA and Stanford held their seeds and will play Saturday for the championship.
Patriot
In: American
The American Eagles (not Outfitters) are in the NCAA tournament for the first time after several near-misses. How fitting is it that a team called American wins the Patriot League?
SEC
In: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas
Thursday was the night a couple of bubble teams went bye-bye. Friday was the night the lights went out in Georgia. Actually, the lights didn’t go out, but a couple of walls did. But, the teams played on. Arkansas strengthened its position and gets a shot at top seed Tennessee on Saturday. The tournament has been moved to the campus of Georgia Tech, where only friends, family, cheerleaders, and bands will be allowed entry. Kentucky and Georgia will play at noon local time, with the winner playing Mississippi State Saturday night. It will look like they’re playing in front of a TV studio audience.
Southland
In: Post-season tournament champion
Break up the Mavericks! Not the Dallas Mavericks, but the UT-Arlington Mavericks. UTA advanced to the championship game with their second consecutive upset of this tournament, defeating Sam Houston State. The Movin’ Mavs get to play Northwestern State, upset winners over regular season co-champ Stephen F. Austin. It was a bad day for Texas patriots, with both Sam Houston and Stephen F. Austin losing. On the other hand, can lightning strike three times for UTA?
SWAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
Dayton, Ohio awaits the winner of this conference. Mississippi Valley (16-15) takes on state rival Jackson State (14-19) for the SWAC tournament title. Both teams’ RPI ratings are in the 200’s. That’s a guaranteed ticket to the opening round game. But, the record book will always say that one of these teams played in the NCAA Tournament.
WAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This conference is having a steel cage match in Las Cruces with the quad-champions facing each other in the semifinals. Yes, quad-champions. Four teams tied for the regular season title at 12-4. Boise State earned a trip to the finals with a win over Utah State. New Mexico State is glad they won the bid to host this year’s tournament, as they took advantage of the home court to send Nevada home.
Last four teams in (rooting hard for teams like Kent State): Villanova, Arizona State, South Alabama, Illinois State
Last four teams out (need some love from the committee): UMass, Oregon, New Mexico, Arizona
Teams with automatic bids to date:
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop
Colonial: George Mason
Horizon: Butler
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Missouri Valley: Drake (Illinois State should get an at-large bid)
Northeast: Mt. St. Mary’s
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Southern: Davidson
Summit: Oral Roberts
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky (South Alabama should get an at-large bid)
West Coast: San Diego (Gonzaga and St. Mary’s should get at-large bids)
Reviews and comments on conferences still duking it out:
ACC
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech
UNC is ranked #1 in the country and won the regular season in the ACC. What counts on Tobacco Road, however, is the ACC Tournament, the nation’s oldest post-season tournament. North Carolina and Duke took care of business today. So did Virginia Tech, firming up their imminent NCAA bid with a big win over Miami. For the second year in a row, the Hokies are in the semifinals of the ACC tournament. There have to be a lot of old school ACC people (hello, UVA, NC State, and Wake Forest) just sick about the success of the nouveau member Hokies in the ACC. It is a little strange to see Va Tech and Miami playing each other in this tournament. At the end of the day, though, it’s North Carolina’s tournament to lose.
America East
In: Winner of conference championship game
Either Maryland-Baltimore County or Hartford will qualify for their first NCAA tournament with a win on Saturday. UMBC won the regular season and will thus host the championship game against Hartford.
Atlantic 10
In: Xavier, either St. Joseph’s or Temple
On the bubble: UMass, St. Joseph’s-Temple loser
As I predicted and expected, Xavier was defeated in this tournament. St. Joseph’s did the deed, and is close to an at-large bid if they don’t earn the automatic bid on Saturday. Their opponent: their Philly buddies from Temple. The Big Five rivals will meet for the auto-bid Saturday evening in Atlantic City. Didn’t Miss America used to be crowned on Saturday night in Atlantic City?
Big 12
In: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M
The Big 12 is strong this year. UT and KU still have a slight chance for #1 seeds. OU and K-State are safely in the tournament. UT, KU, and OU won today to move into the semifinals. Texas A&M got a win over Kansas State on Friday to solidify, at last, their at-large bid. Baylor is still barely in the tournament despite an embarrassing double-overtime loss to Colorado.
Big East
In: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Connecticut, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Villanova
16 teams are just way too many for one conference. This group of schools would probably squeeze out a couple more bids if they weren’t in the same conference. Georgetown is proving itself to be the Beast of the East, having pummeled West Virginia on Friday. They will play Pittsburgh, who is making yet another run to the Saturday night stage at Madison Square Garden.
Big Ten
In: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State
Some strange things are happening here. On the top half of the bracket, Wisconsin and Michigan State advanced, as expected. Fireworks are flying on the lower half, though. 10th-seeded Illinois defeated Purdue in overtime, 74-67. Minnesota used a buzzer-beater to upset Indiana. There are a lot of teams out there hoping that Wisconsin or Michigan State take care of business. Meanwhile, Minnesota could be playing itself into an at-large possibility.
Big West
In: Post-season tournament champion
There were tri-champions in this league, and one of them is already gone in an upset, as UC Santa Barbara was taken out by UC Irvine in the battle of the UC’s. The Anteaters play Cal State-Fullerton, winner of the Cal State slugfest over Cal State-Northridge. When are the Banana Slugs of UC Santa Cruz going to join this league? Meanwhile, either Irvine or Fullerton gets bragging rights to the O.C. and a berth in the Big Dance.
Conference USA
In: Memphis
Memphis owns this conference, lock, stock, and barrel. The Tigers walked through a scrimmage with Southern Miss in Friday’s semifinal. The designated victim in Saturday’s championship game is the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. TU has won three in a row this week, two in overtime, including Friday’s win over UTEP.
Mid-American
In: Kent State
This conference belongs to Summit County, Ohio. Akron returns to the final with a win over Western Michigan. The Zips lost last year’s championship on a three-point prayer by Miami (Ohio), and were subsequently snubbed by both the NCAA and NIT. They take on nearby rival and regular season champ Kent State, winners of 27 games this season. Expect the unexpected at the Q in Cleveland Saturday night.
Mid-Eastern
In: Post-season tournament champion
Baltimore is well-represented here, as Coppin State and Morgan State are playing each other for a trip to the Big Dance. Morgan State is the regular season champ. And, no, the school was not named after me.
Mountain West
In: BYU, UNLV
BYU is in the tournament regardless of what happens. UNLV apparently secured an at-large bid with a win over Utah in the other semifinal.
Pac-10
In: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona State
On the Bubble: Oregon, Arizona
The suspense is over on the court in this conference. All the remaining teams are playing for seeding in the NCAA tournament. The real suspense is in the inner sanctum of the programs at Arizona State, Oregon, and Arizona. The conventional wisdom says that Arizona will make the tournament due to their top-ranked strength of schedule. I disagree. You have to beat at least one good team, and you have to beat the teams with which you are competing for that spot. Arizona State and Oregon took care of Arizona on the court. UCLA and Stanford held their seeds and will play Saturday for the championship.
Patriot
In: American
The American Eagles (not Outfitters) are in the NCAA tournament for the first time after several near-misses. How fitting is it that a team called American wins the Patriot League?
SEC
In: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas
Thursday was the night a couple of bubble teams went bye-bye. Friday was the night the lights went out in Georgia. Actually, the lights didn’t go out, but a couple of walls did. But, the teams played on. Arkansas strengthened its position and gets a shot at top seed Tennessee on Saturday. The tournament has been moved to the campus of Georgia Tech, where only friends, family, cheerleaders, and bands will be allowed entry. Kentucky and Georgia will play at noon local time, with the winner playing Mississippi State Saturday night. It will look like they’re playing in front of a TV studio audience.
Southland
In: Post-season tournament champion
Break up the Mavericks! Not the Dallas Mavericks, but the UT-Arlington Mavericks. UTA advanced to the championship game with their second consecutive upset of this tournament, defeating Sam Houston State. The Movin’ Mavs get to play Northwestern State, upset winners over regular season co-champ Stephen F. Austin. It was a bad day for Texas patriots, with both Sam Houston and Stephen F. Austin losing. On the other hand, can lightning strike three times for UTA?
SWAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
Dayton, Ohio awaits the winner of this conference. Mississippi Valley (16-15) takes on state rival Jackson State (14-19) for the SWAC tournament title. Both teams’ RPI ratings are in the 200’s. That’s a guaranteed ticket to the opening round game. But, the record book will always say that one of these teams played in the NCAA Tournament.
WAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This conference is having a steel cage match in Las Cruces with the quad-champions facing each other in the semifinals. Yes, quad-champions. Four teams tied for the regular season title at 12-4. Boise State earned a trip to the finals with a win over Utah State. New Mexico State is glad they won the bid to host this year’s tournament, as they took advantage of the home court to send Nevada home.
Last four teams in (rooting hard for teams like Kent State): Villanova, Arizona State, South Alabama, Illinois State
Last four teams out (need some love from the committee): UMass, Oregon, New Mexico, Arizona
Friday, March 14, 2008
A Giant Boom
There are some big games being played this weekend. However, they pale in comparison to tonight's events at the SEC tournament in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.
Mississippi State led Alabama by three points with two minutes left in overtime, when part of the roof started falling in. A tornado hit downtown Atlanta, tearing two holes into the side of the building. Atlanta has some really strange weather, with snowstorms and tornadoes occurring within a month of each other. However, this takes the cake. Their weather sounds like the weather in Oklahoma.
Word is that they are going to resume play tonight. I'd be shocked if they could get another arena for three days on short notice. There are a lot of Kentucky Wildcat fans in town to accomodate. The Atlanta folks will need to get the Georgia Dome in some kind of safe shape, fast.
Wild stuff.
Update: The weather cleared enough for Mississippi State to finish Alabama off in the overtime. Another storm moved through downtown Atlanta and made the Georgia Dome an unsafe place to be. SEC officials postponed Friday's late game between Georgia and Kentucky. The rest of the tournament is in doubt.
At this point, it doesn't really matter if the rest of the tournament is played. The fans are in Atlanta spending money already. The Kentucky fans will go ahead and party in Atlanta without any games. The remaining teams are already a cinch to make the NCAA tournament, except for Georgia, who probably wouldn't be able to beat Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Tennessee or Arkansas all in a row. So, the only variable is what to do with the unused tickets, and with the TV coverage. If the building and event is properly insured, the SEC should be able to refund the value of the unused tickets to the fans. The SEC would also be forced to refund TV partners Raycom and CBS for games not played and not shown.
All of the above is a small price to pay for safety. Luckily, no one was hurt at the Dome in tonight's storm.
Second update: The pooh-bahs of the SEC have decided to move the tournament to Alexander Memorial Coliseum at Georgia Tech. Ironic, since Georgia Tech is a former SEC member. Since the Georgia Tech arena only holds around 9,000 people, only family members, cheerleaders, bands, and other selected people are being allowed into the arena to watch the games. The SEC is refunding money for tickets sold to the Georgia Dome. It would stink for someone that has driven all the way from Kentucky to see this thing, only to watch it on TV in a sports bar.
Speaking of Kentucky, the Wildcats will play their quarterfinal game with Georgia today at 12 noon local time. The winner will play Mississippi State tonight at 9 pm local time, following the Tennessee-Arkansas game. Shades of AAU tournaments for these guys, where they played multiple games in one day. Sunday's final has been delayed by two hours in order to facilitate a little rest for the UK/UGa-MSU winner.
Tournament Field Projections, 3/14/08
Does anybody really want to be in this tournament? There were some bad, inexplicable losses by teams like Baylor, Florida, UMass, and Ole Miss on Thursday. At this rate, the bubble is going to get bigger, and teams once given up for dead may be alive on Selection Sunday. What happened on Thursday? And, how does it affect who is in or out of the tournament?
Teams with automatic bids to date:
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop
Colonial: George Mason
Horizon: Butler
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Missouri Valley: Drake (Illinois State should get an at-large bid)
Northeast: Mt. St. Mary’s
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Southern: Davidson
Summit: Oral Roberts
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky (South Alabama should get an at-large bid)
West Coast: San Diego (Gonzaga and St. Mary’s should get at-large bids)
Reviews and comments on conferences still duking it out:
ACC
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech
UNC is ranked #1 in the country and won the regular season in the ACC. What counts on Tobacco Road, however, is the ACC Tournament, the nation’s oldest post-season tournament. UNC, Duke, and Clemson are lead-pipe locks. Miami got a win Thursday to solidify its position. The ‘Canes now play Virginia Tech, who needs a win or two this week to cinch a bid for themselves.
America East
In: Winner of conference championship game
Either Maryland-Baltimore County or Hartford will qualify for their first NCAA tournament with a win. UMBC won the regular season and will thus host the championship game against Hartford.
Atlantic 10
In: Xavier
On the bubble: UMass, St. Joseph’s, Temple
Xavier is not on the Atlantic coast, and the conference has more than 10 teams, but the X-men are a sure thing for the NCAA tournament. Xavier finished off the Dayton Flyers on Thursday, 74-65. UMass blew a big lead in a loss to Charlotte, and will be sweating bullets on Sunday. St. Joseph’s and Temple are squarely on the bubble, but are still alive in this tournament. Based on past history of regular season champions in this conference, I’d be shocked if Xavier won this post-season tournament.
Big 12
In: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M
The Big 12 is strong this year. UT and KU still have a slight chance for #1 seeds. OU and K-State are safely in the tournament. Baylor is still barely in the tournament despite an embarrassing double-overtime loss to Colorado. Texas A&M got a win over Iowa State to stay alive in the Big 12 tournament and in the national picture. The Ags need a win over Kansas State to feel better going into Selection Sunday.
Big East
In: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Connecticut, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Villanova
16 teams are just way too many for one conference. This group of schools would probably squeeze out a couple more bids if they weren’t in the same conference. Villanova stayed alive for a bid, and knocked Syracuse out of the running with a big win Wednesday at the Garden before losing to Georgetown on Thursday. Nova probably played itself into the tournament. The rest of the Big East tournament will play a role in seeding, as all the remaining teams should be in the Big Dance next week. West Virginia got a big win over UConn today, and Pittsburgh got a good win over Louisville. These teams will use the next couple of days to try to improve their seeding and to increase the cash flow of the conference.
Big Ten
In: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State
This league is pretty mediocre at the bottom, but has some pretty good teams at the top. Ohio State has done enough at the end of the season to make the tournament, but could use another win over Michigan State on Friday to make themselves fell better.
Big West
In: Post-season tournament champion
UC-Santa Barbara, Cal State-Northridge, and Cal State-Fullerton tied for the regular season title. The tournament is being played at the neutral site of the Anaheim Convention Center, across the street from Disneyland. The winner will be a #15 or #16 seed in the Big Dance.
Conference USA
In: Memphis
Memphis owns this conference, lock, stock, and barrel. They could do their conference a favor by purposely losing in this tournament (on their home court) and allowing another team to earn the automatic bid. That will be this conference’s best chance to get two teams in the NCAA tournament. The league’s 2nd and 3rd seeds, UAB and Houston, were upset on Thursday. UTEP and Tulsa play on Friday for a chance to play (get waxed by) Memphis on network television Saturday for the auto-bid.
Mid-American
In: Kent State
This is always a wide-open, entertaining tournament. Kent State should be in the Big Dance as long as they don’t implode in the post-season tournament. They stayed alive today. The MAC could get a second bid if Kent State gets to the finals and loses.
Mid-Eastern
In: Post-season tournament champion
Morgan State is the regular season champion. Anyone could win this thing. The conference looks strong enough to keep its champion out of the opening-round game, but the winner of this tournament will probably be a #16 seed.
Mountain West
In: BYU, UNLV
On the bubble: New Mexico
BYU won the regular season, and is a lock for the field of 65. UNLV is in my projected field at this time, but barely hung on for a one-point win on their home court against TCU. New Mexico is squarely on the bubble, and did not help themselves with a first round overtime loss to Utah.
Pac-10
In: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona State, Oregon
On the Bubble: Arizona
UCLA won the regular season, and is a favorite to win the national championship. This has been a strong year in the Pac 10, and Stanford, Wazzu, and USC have nothing to worry about next Sunday. To this point, this tournament is playing to form. That’s good for the top four teams, and makes the next 72 hours a very nervous time for Arizona State, Oregon, and Arizona. Those three teams lost on Thursday.
Patriot
In: Colgate or American
Let’s see: Toothpaste, or our country? American has knocked on the door in this league for several years, but hasn’t quite made the NCAA tournament. This is their year, with the championship game on their home court. This automatic bid will be determined Friday afternoon in D.C.
SEC
In: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas
There will be a new national champion in college basketball. The Florida Gators will not be around to defend their national championship, having been unceremoniously bounced from the SEC tournament by Alabama. The Gators simply do not have a strong enough profile to gain favor from the selection committee. Ole Miss had a chance to play their way into the Big Dance as well, but lost a heartbreaker in overtime to Georgia. Tennessee can firm up a #1 seed with a strong showing in Atlanta this weekend.
Southland
In: Post-season tournament champion
East division champion Lamar was knocked out of the tournament by UT-Arlington this afternoon. This paves the way for either Sam Houston or Stephen F. Austin to win this tournament. Northwestern State is still alive here, as well.
SWAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This conference of HBCUs spends December getting hammered for paychecks by bigger-name schools. Alabama State has rebounded to run away with the league and to sport a winning record, if not a high power rating. The winner here stands a good chance of getting an all-expenses paid trip to Dayton, Ohio for the opening round of the NCAA tournament.
WAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
The favorites remain alive here: Nevada, Utah State, Boise State, and New Mexico State.
Last four teams in (rooting hard for teams like Xavier and Kent State): Arizona State, South Alabama, Illinois State, Oregon
Last four teams out (need to have a good week on the court and some favor from the committee): UMass, New Mexico, Arizona, Virginia Commonwealth
Teams with automatic bids to date:
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop
Colonial: George Mason
Horizon: Butler
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Missouri Valley: Drake (Illinois State should get an at-large bid)
Northeast: Mt. St. Mary’s
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Southern: Davidson
Summit: Oral Roberts
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky (South Alabama should get an at-large bid)
West Coast: San Diego (Gonzaga and St. Mary’s should get at-large bids)
Reviews and comments on conferences still duking it out:
ACC
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech
UNC is ranked #1 in the country and won the regular season in the ACC. What counts on Tobacco Road, however, is the ACC Tournament, the nation’s oldest post-season tournament. UNC, Duke, and Clemson are lead-pipe locks. Miami got a win Thursday to solidify its position. The ‘Canes now play Virginia Tech, who needs a win or two this week to cinch a bid for themselves.
America East
In: Winner of conference championship game
Either Maryland-Baltimore County or Hartford will qualify for their first NCAA tournament with a win. UMBC won the regular season and will thus host the championship game against Hartford.
Atlantic 10
In: Xavier
On the bubble: UMass, St. Joseph’s, Temple
Xavier is not on the Atlantic coast, and the conference has more than 10 teams, but the X-men are a sure thing for the NCAA tournament. Xavier finished off the Dayton Flyers on Thursday, 74-65. UMass blew a big lead in a loss to Charlotte, and will be sweating bullets on Sunday. St. Joseph’s and Temple are squarely on the bubble, but are still alive in this tournament. Based on past history of regular season champions in this conference, I’d be shocked if Xavier won this post-season tournament.
Big 12
In: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M
The Big 12 is strong this year. UT and KU still have a slight chance for #1 seeds. OU and K-State are safely in the tournament. Baylor is still barely in the tournament despite an embarrassing double-overtime loss to Colorado. Texas A&M got a win over Iowa State to stay alive in the Big 12 tournament and in the national picture. The Ags need a win over Kansas State to feel better going into Selection Sunday.
Big East
In: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Connecticut, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Villanova
16 teams are just way too many for one conference. This group of schools would probably squeeze out a couple more bids if they weren’t in the same conference. Villanova stayed alive for a bid, and knocked Syracuse out of the running with a big win Wednesday at the Garden before losing to Georgetown on Thursday. Nova probably played itself into the tournament. The rest of the Big East tournament will play a role in seeding, as all the remaining teams should be in the Big Dance next week. West Virginia got a big win over UConn today, and Pittsburgh got a good win over Louisville. These teams will use the next couple of days to try to improve their seeding and to increase the cash flow of the conference.
Big Ten
In: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State
This league is pretty mediocre at the bottom, but has some pretty good teams at the top. Ohio State has done enough at the end of the season to make the tournament, but could use another win over Michigan State on Friday to make themselves fell better.
Big West
In: Post-season tournament champion
UC-Santa Barbara, Cal State-Northridge, and Cal State-Fullerton tied for the regular season title. The tournament is being played at the neutral site of the Anaheim Convention Center, across the street from Disneyland. The winner will be a #15 or #16 seed in the Big Dance.
Conference USA
In: Memphis
Memphis owns this conference, lock, stock, and barrel. They could do their conference a favor by purposely losing in this tournament (on their home court) and allowing another team to earn the automatic bid. That will be this conference’s best chance to get two teams in the NCAA tournament. The league’s 2nd and 3rd seeds, UAB and Houston, were upset on Thursday. UTEP and Tulsa play on Friday for a chance to play (get waxed by) Memphis on network television Saturday for the auto-bid.
Mid-American
In: Kent State
This is always a wide-open, entertaining tournament. Kent State should be in the Big Dance as long as they don’t implode in the post-season tournament. They stayed alive today. The MAC could get a second bid if Kent State gets to the finals and loses.
Mid-Eastern
In: Post-season tournament champion
Morgan State is the regular season champion. Anyone could win this thing. The conference looks strong enough to keep its champion out of the opening-round game, but the winner of this tournament will probably be a #16 seed.
Mountain West
In: BYU, UNLV
On the bubble: New Mexico
BYU won the regular season, and is a lock for the field of 65. UNLV is in my projected field at this time, but barely hung on for a one-point win on their home court against TCU. New Mexico is squarely on the bubble, and did not help themselves with a first round overtime loss to Utah.
Pac-10
In: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona State, Oregon
On the Bubble: Arizona
UCLA won the regular season, and is a favorite to win the national championship. This has been a strong year in the Pac 10, and Stanford, Wazzu, and USC have nothing to worry about next Sunday. To this point, this tournament is playing to form. That’s good for the top four teams, and makes the next 72 hours a very nervous time for Arizona State, Oregon, and Arizona. Those three teams lost on Thursday.
Patriot
In: Colgate or American
Let’s see: Toothpaste, or our country? American has knocked on the door in this league for several years, but hasn’t quite made the NCAA tournament. This is their year, with the championship game on their home court. This automatic bid will be determined Friday afternoon in D.C.
SEC
In: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas
There will be a new national champion in college basketball. The Florida Gators will not be around to defend their national championship, having been unceremoniously bounced from the SEC tournament by Alabama. The Gators simply do not have a strong enough profile to gain favor from the selection committee. Ole Miss had a chance to play their way into the Big Dance as well, but lost a heartbreaker in overtime to Georgia. Tennessee can firm up a #1 seed with a strong showing in Atlanta this weekend.
Southland
In: Post-season tournament champion
East division champion Lamar was knocked out of the tournament by UT-Arlington this afternoon. This paves the way for either Sam Houston or Stephen F. Austin to win this tournament. Northwestern State is still alive here, as well.
SWAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This conference of HBCUs spends December getting hammered for paychecks by bigger-name schools. Alabama State has rebounded to run away with the league and to sport a winning record, if not a high power rating. The winner here stands a good chance of getting an all-expenses paid trip to Dayton, Ohio for the opening round of the NCAA tournament.
WAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
The favorites remain alive here: Nevada, Utah State, Boise State, and New Mexico State.
Last four teams in (rooting hard for teams like Xavier and Kent State): Arizona State, South Alabama, Illinois State, Oregon
Last four teams out (need to have a good week on the court and some favor from the committee): UMass, New Mexico, Arizona, Virginia Commonwealth
Thursday, March 13, 2008
ESPN Minus
A quick note that couldn't wait. The announcers' mikes have just started working in Thursday night's first Big 12 first round game between Nebraska and Missouri. There is 14:20 left in the first half. ESPN Plus is showing the game to syndicated affiliates in Big 12 country.
Yes, that's right, ESPN Plus showed the first five minutes of a game with the announcers' mikes out of commission. They even went to a TV timeout, came back, and there was still no audio.
It reminded me of the NFL game in the 80's between the Jets and the Dolphins where there were no announcers. In that game, it was intentional. It was not intentional tonight.
Another quality production by ESPN Plus, the syndication partner of Big 12 basketball.
Yes, that's right, ESPN Plus showed the first five minutes of a game with the announcers' mikes out of commission. They even went to a TV timeout, came back, and there was still no audio.
It reminded me of the NFL game in the 80's between the Jets and the Dolphins where there were no announcers. In that game, it was intentional. It was not intentional tonight.
Another quality production by ESPN Plus, the syndication partner of Big 12 basketball.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Tournament Field Projections, 3/13/08
Two automatic qualifiers made the NCAA Tournament Wednesday night. Mount St. Mary's won the Northeast Conference tournament, and Portland State won the Big Sky tournament. Outside of that, there was a whole lot of action Wednesday that did not determine a whole lot. Thursday will give us more of the same. Wednesday's and Thursday's first round of conference tournaments will end the seasons of a lot of bad to mediocre teams.
Post-season tournaments serve as a money-making machine for conferences and give every team one more chance to earn a bid to the NCAA tournament. In power conferences such as the Big East, Big 12, Big 10, SEC, ACC, and Pac 10, a so-so team has to beat four quality teams in four days in order to earn a bid. A bubble team gets another chance to get one or two quality wins at the end of the season to impress the selection committee. These tournaments can often be dull, but can also be interesting if a team makes an unexpected run to extend their season.
Who's in and who's out from the respective conferences:
ACC
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech
UNC is ranked #1 in the country and won the regular season in the ACC. What counts on Tobacco Road, however, is the ACC Tournament, the nation’s oldest post-season tournament. UNC, Duke, and Clemson are lead-pipe locks. Miami should make it, but they need a win in the ACC tournament to make it official. Virginia Tech is in for now, but needs a win or two this week to cinch it up.
America East
In: Winner of conference championship game
Either Maryland-Baltimore County or Hartford will qualify for their first NCAA tournament with a win. UMBC won the regular season and will thus host the championship game against Hartford.
Atlantic Sun
In: Belmont
The Bruins won their third A-Sun tournament in a row to qualify for the Big Dance.
Atlantic 10
In: Xavier, UMass
On the bubble: St. Joseph’s, Temple, Dayton
Xavier is not on the Atlantic coast, and the conference has more than 10 teams, but the X-men are a sure thing for the NCAA tournament. UMass has finished strong, and has a strong non-conference schedule, helping them to make the field. The Minutemen need a strong showing in the conference tournament to stay in the field of 65. St. Joseph’s, Temple, and Dayton are barely on the outside looking in, for now. I’d be shocked if Xavier won this post-season tournament, so the A-10 will possibly get three bids.
Big 12
In: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M
The Big 12 is strong this year. UT and KU still have a slight chance for #1 seeds. OU and K-State are safely in the tournament. Baylor and A&M are in the tournament, as well, barring 1st round tournament losses to Colorado and Iowa State.
Big East
In: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Connecticut, West Virginia, Pittsburgh
On the bubble: Villanova, Syracuse
16 teams are just way too many for one conference. This group of schools would probably squeeze out a couple more bids if they weren’t in the same conference. Villanova stayed alive for a bid, and knocked Syracuse out of the running with a big win Wednesday at the Garden. Nova now gets a date with Georgetown in the quarterfinals.
Big Sky
In: Portland State
Portland State completed the Big Sky double, winning both the regular season and the post-season tournament. The Vikings could be staring at a UCLA or a Stanford in the first round of the Big Dance.
Big South
In: Winthrop
The Eagles won their eighth Big South tournament title and the accompanying trip to the Tournament.
Big West
In: Post-season tournament champion
UC-Santa Barbara, Cal State-Northridge, and Cal State-Fullerton tied for the regular season title. The tournament will be played at the neutral site of the Anaheim Convention Center, across the street from Disneyland. The winner will be a #15 or #16 seed in the Big Dance.
Colonial
In: George Mason
On the Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth
Favored George Mason got the auto-bid from the Colonial with a win over William & Mary. VCU is now squarely on the bubble.
Conference USA
In: Memphis
On the Bubble: UAB, Houston
Memphis owns this conference, lock, stock, and barrel. They could do their conference a favor by purposely losing in this tournament (on their home court) and allowing another team to earn the automatic bid. That will be this conference’s best chance to get two teams in the NCAA tournament. UAB is the best of the rest, but the Blazers were drilled at Memphis in their last game.
Horizon League
In: Butler
The Butler did it, defending their top 10 ranking with a thumping of Cleveland State in the finals of the Horizon tournament. Butler now sets their sights on making noise in the NCAA tournament.
Ivy
In: Cornell
There is no post-season tournament in this league, and the Big Red have run away with the regular season title.
Metro Atlantic
In: Siena
Siena took advantage of the home court and won the MAAC tourney over Rider.
Mid-American
In: Kent State
This is always a wide-open, entertaining tournament. Kent State should be in the Big Dance as long as they don’t implode in the post-season tournament. The MAC could get a second bid if Kent State gets to the finals and loses.
Mid-Eastern
In: Post-season tournament champion
Morgan State is the regular season champion. Anyone could win this thing. The conference looks strong enough to keep its champion out of the opening-round game, but the winner of this tournament will probably be a #16 seed.
Missouri Valley
In: Drake, Illinois State
Drake is in its first NCAA tournament in 37 years, and rolled through the regular season and post-season tournament. Illinois State was pounded by Drake in the tournament final, and will be sweating on Selection Sunday.
Mountain West
In: BYU, UNLV
On the bubble: New Mexico
BYU won the regular season, and is a lock for the field of 65. UNLV is in my projected field at this time, but needs at least one win on their home court this week in the MWC tournament. New Mexico is squarely on the bubble, and needs a strong run this week in Las Vegas, along with help in other places.
Northeast
In: Mt. St. Mary’s
Mount St. Mary's, fourth-place finishers in the regular season, finished their improbable run through the NEC tournament with a win at Sacred Heart. The Mount has a really good chance to be on its way to Dayton, Ohio for Tuesday night's opening round game.
Ohio Valley
In: Austin Peay
The Governors appear in the Big Dance once again after winning the OVC regular season and tournament. Get ready for the cheer, coming to an arena somewhere in this tournament: “Let’s Go Peay!”
Pac-10
In: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona State, Oregon
On the Bubble: Arizona
UCLA won the regular season, and is a favorite to win the national championship. This has been a strong year in the Pac 10, and Stanford, Wazzu, and USC have nothing to worry about next Sunday. Arizona State, Oregon, and Arizona need good performances this week at the Staples Center in L.A. At this point, I have Arizona State and Oregon in the tournament over Arizona based on head-to-head performance and conference record. The Wildcats can save their season this week in Los Angeles.
Patriot
In: Colgate or American
Let’s see: Toothpaste, or our country? American has knocked on the door in this league for several years, but hasn’t quite made the NCAA tournament. This is their year, with the championship game on their home court.
SEC
In: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Florida
On the Bubble: Ole Miss
The Vols are looking at a #1 seed if they don’t mess things up this week at the SEC tournament. Vandy is pretty stout, Kentucky has made a strong comeback, while MSU and Arky are tournament teams in the West. The Florida Gators are in deep doo-doo. I have them barely in the field, but that could change depending on events this week. Ole Miss was awesome and undefeated in non-conference play, went into the tank for most of conference play, but has made a comeback in recent weeks. The Rebels could play their way into the field this week.
Southern
In: Davidson
Davidson got through the SoCon tournament, and I didn’t have to stand on my head. Monday night’s win made them 23-0 against SoCon competition. Now, Davidson returns to competition against the big boys in the Big Dance.
Southland
In: Post-season tournament champion
This will be a fun tournament at the Merrell Center in Katy (By the way, the Houston area has several high school arenas that a lot of colleges would kill for). Lamar and Stephen F. Austin won the two divisions, while Sam Houston will be a force to be reckoned with, as well. The winner of this tournament would be a good choice for a first-round NCAA upset, following Northwestern State’s win in 2006 and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi’s near-miss last year.
Summit League
In: Oral Roberts
The Golden Eagles (I still want to call them Titans-I guess I’m old school) win their third Summit League (formerly Mid-Continent) tournament in a row with a win over IUPUI. Did you know that IUPUI is spelled the same backwards as it is forwards? The court at ORU still says “Expect a Miracle”, and the Golden Eagles will need a miracle for a first-round upset in the Big Dance. However, stranger things have happened.
Sun Belt
In: Western Kentucky, South Alabama
Western Kentucky returns to the Big Dance with a championship in the Sun Belt tournament. The Hilltoppers’ win also preserves the chances of the South Alabama Jaguars, upset losers in the semifinals. The Sun Belt looks to squeeze two teams into this year’s Field of 65.
SWAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This conference of HBCUs spends December getting hammered for paychecks by bigger-name schools. Alabama State has rebounded to run away with the league and to sport a winning record, if not a high power rating. The winner here stands a good chance of getting an all-expenses paid trip to Dayton, Ohio for the opening round of the NCAA tournament.
WAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This is a down year for the WAC, and the conference will probably only get one bid to this year’s tournament. WAC teams such as Nevada, Utah State, and New Mexico State have made noise in the Big Dance in recent years. Boise State is the regular season champion. The tournament is being played on New Mexico State’s home court in Las Cruces.
West Coast
In: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, San Diego
Not surprisingly, a decent San Diego club took advantage of its home court and beat Gonzaga Monday night to win the WCC tournament. Now, the WCC looks to have three teams in the NCAA tournament.
Last four teams in (rooting hard for teams like Xavier and any other favorite in the remaining conference tournaments): Arizona State, South Alabama, Illinois State, Florida
Last four teams out (need to have a good week on the court): Ole Miss, Oregon, New Mexico, Arizona
Post-season tournaments serve as a money-making machine for conferences and give every team one more chance to earn a bid to the NCAA tournament. In power conferences such as the Big East, Big 12, Big 10, SEC, ACC, and Pac 10, a so-so team has to beat four quality teams in four days in order to earn a bid. A bubble team gets another chance to get one or two quality wins at the end of the season to impress the selection committee. These tournaments can often be dull, but can also be interesting if a team makes an unexpected run to extend their season.
Who's in and who's out from the respective conferences:
ACC
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech
UNC is ranked #1 in the country and won the regular season in the ACC. What counts on Tobacco Road, however, is the ACC Tournament, the nation’s oldest post-season tournament. UNC, Duke, and Clemson are lead-pipe locks. Miami should make it, but they need a win in the ACC tournament to make it official. Virginia Tech is in for now, but needs a win or two this week to cinch it up.
America East
In: Winner of conference championship game
Either Maryland-Baltimore County or Hartford will qualify for their first NCAA tournament with a win. UMBC won the regular season and will thus host the championship game against Hartford.
Atlantic Sun
In: Belmont
The Bruins won their third A-Sun tournament in a row to qualify for the Big Dance.
Atlantic 10
In: Xavier, UMass
On the bubble: St. Joseph’s, Temple, Dayton
Xavier is not on the Atlantic coast, and the conference has more than 10 teams, but the X-men are a sure thing for the NCAA tournament. UMass has finished strong, and has a strong non-conference schedule, helping them to make the field. The Minutemen need a strong showing in the conference tournament to stay in the field of 65. St. Joseph’s, Temple, and Dayton are barely on the outside looking in, for now. I’d be shocked if Xavier won this post-season tournament, so the A-10 will possibly get three bids.
Big 12
In: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M
The Big 12 is strong this year. UT and KU still have a slight chance for #1 seeds. OU and K-State are safely in the tournament. Baylor and A&M are in the tournament, as well, barring 1st round tournament losses to Colorado and Iowa State.
Big East
In: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Connecticut, West Virginia, Pittsburgh
On the bubble: Villanova, Syracuse
16 teams are just way too many for one conference. This group of schools would probably squeeze out a couple more bids if they weren’t in the same conference. Villanova stayed alive for a bid, and knocked Syracuse out of the running with a big win Wednesday at the Garden. Nova now gets a date with Georgetown in the quarterfinals.
Big Sky
In: Portland State
Portland State completed the Big Sky double, winning both the regular season and the post-season tournament. The Vikings could be staring at a UCLA or a Stanford in the first round of the Big Dance.
Big South
In: Winthrop
The Eagles won their eighth Big South tournament title and the accompanying trip to the Tournament.
Big West
In: Post-season tournament champion
UC-Santa Barbara, Cal State-Northridge, and Cal State-Fullerton tied for the regular season title. The tournament will be played at the neutral site of the Anaheim Convention Center, across the street from Disneyland. The winner will be a #15 or #16 seed in the Big Dance.
Colonial
In: George Mason
On the Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth
Favored George Mason got the auto-bid from the Colonial with a win over William & Mary. VCU is now squarely on the bubble.
Conference USA
In: Memphis
On the Bubble: UAB, Houston
Memphis owns this conference, lock, stock, and barrel. They could do their conference a favor by purposely losing in this tournament (on their home court) and allowing another team to earn the automatic bid. That will be this conference’s best chance to get two teams in the NCAA tournament. UAB is the best of the rest, but the Blazers were drilled at Memphis in their last game.
Horizon League
In: Butler
The Butler did it, defending their top 10 ranking with a thumping of Cleveland State in the finals of the Horizon tournament. Butler now sets their sights on making noise in the NCAA tournament.
Ivy
In: Cornell
There is no post-season tournament in this league, and the Big Red have run away with the regular season title.
Metro Atlantic
In: Siena
Siena took advantage of the home court and won the MAAC tourney over Rider.
Mid-American
In: Kent State
This is always a wide-open, entertaining tournament. Kent State should be in the Big Dance as long as they don’t implode in the post-season tournament. The MAC could get a second bid if Kent State gets to the finals and loses.
Mid-Eastern
In: Post-season tournament champion
Morgan State is the regular season champion. Anyone could win this thing. The conference looks strong enough to keep its champion out of the opening-round game, but the winner of this tournament will probably be a #16 seed.
Missouri Valley
In: Drake, Illinois State
Drake is in its first NCAA tournament in 37 years, and rolled through the regular season and post-season tournament. Illinois State was pounded by Drake in the tournament final, and will be sweating on Selection Sunday.
Mountain West
In: BYU, UNLV
On the bubble: New Mexico
BYU won the regular season, and is a lock for the field of 65. UNLV is in my projected field at this time, but needs at least one win on their home court this week in the MWC tournament. New Mexico is squarely on the bubble, and needs a strong run this week in Las Vegas, along with help in other places.
Northeast
In: Mt. St. Mary’s
Mount St. Mary's, fourth-place finishers in the regular season, finished their improbable run through the NEC tournament with a win at Sacred Heart. The Mount has a really good chance to be on its way to Dayton, Ohio for Tuesday night's opening round game.
Ohio Valley
In: Austin Peay
The Governors appear in the Big Dance once again after winning the OVC regular season and tournament. Get ready for the cheer, coming to an arena somewhere in this tournament: “Let’s Go Peay!”
Pac-10
In: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona State, Oregon
On the Bubble: Arizona
UCLA won the regular season, and is a favorite to win the national championship. This has been a strong year in the Pac 10, and Stanford, Wazzu, and USC have nothing to worry about next Sunday. Arizona State, Oregon, and Arizona need good performances this week at the Staples Center in L.A. At this point, I have Arizona State and Oregon in the tournament over Arizona based on head-to-head performance and conference record. The Wildcats can save their season this week in Los Angeles.
Patriot
In: Colgate or American
Let’s see: Toothpaste, or our country? American has knocked on the door in this league for several years, but hasn’t quite made the NCAA tournament. This is their year, with the championship game on their home court.
SEC
In: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Florida
On the Bubble: Ole Miss
The Vols are looking at a #1 seed if they don’t mess things up this week at the SEC tournament. Vandy is pretty stout, Kentucky has made a strong comeback, while MSU and Arky are tournament teams in the West. The Florida Gators are in deep doo-doo. I have them barely in the field, but that could change depending on events this week. Ole Miss was awesome and undefeated in non-conference play, went into the tank for most of conference play, but has made a comeback in recent weeks. The Rebels could play their way into the field this week.
Southern
In: Davidson
Davidson got through the SoCon tournament, and I didn’t have to stand on my head. Monday night’s win made them 23-0 against SoCon competition. Now, Davidson returns to competition against the big boys in the Big Dance.
Southland
In: Post-season tournament champion
This will be a fun tournament at the Merrell Center in Katy (By the way, the Houston area has several high school arenas that a lot of colleges would kill for). Lamar and Stephen F. Austin won the two divisions, while Sam Houston will be a force to be reckoned with, as well. The winner of this tournament would be a good choice for a first-round NCAA upset, following Northwestern State’s win in 2006 and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi’s near-miss last year.
Summit League
In: Oral Roberts
The Golden Eagles (I still want to call them Titans-I guess I’m old school) win their third Summit League (formerly Mid-Continent) tournament in a row with a win over IUPUI. Did you know that IUPUI is spelled the same backwards as it is forwards? The court at ORU still says “Expect a Miracle”, and the Golden Eagles will need a miracle for a first-round upset in the Big Dance. However, stranger things have happened.
Sun Belt
In: Western Kentucky, South Alabama
Western Kentucky returns to the Big Dance with a championship in the Sun Belt tournament. The Hilltoppers’ win also preserves the chances of the South Alabama Jaguars, upset losers in the semifinals. The Sun Belt looks to squeeze two teams into this year’s Field of 65.
SWAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This conference of HBCUs spends December getting hammered for paychecks by bigger-name schools. Alabama State has rebounded to run away with the league and to sport a winning record, if not a high power rating. The winner here stands a good chance of getting an all-expenses paid trip to Dayton, Ohio for the opening round of the NCAA tournament.
WAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This is a down year for the WAC, and the conference will probably only get one bid to this year’s tournament. WAC teams such as Nevada, Utah State, and New Mexico State have made noise in the Big Dance in recent years. Boise State is the regular season champion. The tournament is being played on New Mexico State’s home court in Las Cruces.
West Coast
In: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, San Diego
Not surprisingly, a decent San Diego club took advantage of its home court and beat Gonzaga Monday night to win the WCC tournament. Now, the WCC looks to have three teams in the NCAA tournament.
Last four teams in (rooting hard for teams like Xavier and any other favorite in the remaining conference tournaments): Arizona State, South Alabama, Illinois State, Florida
Last four teams out (need to have a good week on the court): Ole Miss, Oregon, New Mexico, Arizona
Tournament Field Projections, 3/12/08
Teams out there in bubble-land can rest a little easier for now, as the favorites won all three of Tuesday’s conference tournament games.
Wednesday brings the first of some all-day marathons in major conferences, as the Big East begins their post-season shindig at Madison Square Garden in New York. This red stater finds Big East basketball about as exciting as watching paint dry (If I were from New York, I’d have no use for the Big 12 or SEC), but it will be on TV all day. The Pac-10 will start their tournament Wednesday evening in Los Angeles. The Atlantic 10 and Conference USA play day games on Wednesday, as well. The daytime action kicks into high gear on Thursday as the Big Ten, Big XII, SEC, and ACC kick off their tournaments.
Not to be forgotten on Wednesday is the Northeast Conference tournament final between Mount St. Mary’s and Sacred Heart, live from Fairfield, Connecticut. Also on Wednesday evening is the Big Sky Conference final from Portland, between Northern Arizona and Portland State.
Not many changes in field projections, other than automatic bid winners (highlighted in bold):
Horizon League
In: Butler
The Butler did it, defending their top 10 ranking with a thumping of Cleveland State in the finals of the Horizon tournament. Butler now sets their sights on making noise in the NCAA tournament.
Summit League
In: Oral Roberts
The Golden Eagles (I still want to call them Titans-I guess I’m old school) win their third Summit League (formerly Mid-Continent) tournament in a row with a win over IUPUI. Did you know that IUPUI is spelled the same backwards as it is forwards? The court at ORU still says “Expect a Miracle”, and the Golden Eagles will need a miracle for a first-round upset in the Big Dance. However, stranger things have happened.
Sun Belt
In: Western Kentucky, South Alabama
Western Kentucky returns to the Big Dance with a championship in the Sun Belt tournament. The Hilltoppers’ win also preserves the chances of the South Alabama Jaguars, upset losers in the semifinals. The Sun Belt looks to squeeze two teams into this year’s Field of 65.
Projections and predictions for teams in other conferences from earlier this week can be found here: Monday, Tuesday
Last four teams in (rooting really hard for teams like Xavier): Arizona State, South Alabama, Illinois State, Florida
Last four teams out (need to help themselves this week on the court and hope for help from others): Ole Miss, Oregon, New Mexico, Arizona
Wednesday brings the first of some all-day marathons in major conferences, as the Big East begins their post-season shindig at Madison Square Garden in New York. This red stater finds Big East basketball about as exciting as watching paint dry (If I were from New York, I’d have no use for the Big 12 or SEC), but it will be on TV all day. The Pac-10 will start their tournament Wednesday evening in Los Angeles. The Atlantic 10 and Conference USA play day games on Wednesday, as well. The daytime action kicks into high gear on Thursday as the Big Ten, Big XII, SEC, and ACC kick off their tournaments.
Not to be forgotten on Wednesday is the Northeast Conference tournament final between Mount St. Mary’s and Sacred Heart, live from Fairfield, Connecticut. Also on Wednesday evening is the Big Sky Conference final from Portland, between Northern Arizona and Portland State.
Not many changes in field projections, other than automatic bid winners (highlighted in bold):
Horizon League
In: Butler
The Butler did it, defending their top 10 ranking with a thumping of Cleveland State in the finals of the Horizon tournament. Butler now sets their sights on making noise in the NCAA tournament.
Summit League
In: Oral Roberts
The Golden Eagles (I still want to call them Titans-I guess I’m old school) win their third Summit League (formerly Mid-Continent) tournament in a row with a win over IUPUI. Did you know that IUPUI is spelled the same backwards as it is forwards? The court at ORU still says “Expect a Miracle”, and the Golden Eagles will need a miracle for a first-round upset in the Big Dance. However, stranger things have happened.
Sun Belt
In: Western Kentucky, South Alabama
Western Kentucky returns to the Big Dance with a championship in the Sun Belt tournament. The Hilltoppers’ win also preserves the chances of the South Alabama Jaguars, upset losers in the semifinals. The Sun Belt looks to squeeze two teams into this year’s Field of 65.
Projections and predictions for teams in other conferences from earlier this week can be found here: Monday, Tuesday
Last four teams in (rooting really hard for teams like Xavier): Arizona State, South Alabama, Illinois State, Florida
Last four teams out (need to help themselves this week on the court and hope for help from others): Ole Miss, Oregon, New Mexico, Arizona
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Tournament Field Projections, 3/11/08
Some updates to the field, based on Monday night's busy schedule of action during Championship Week:
Colonial
In: George Mason
On the Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth
Favored George Mason got the auto-bid from the Colonial with a win over William & Mary. VCU is now squarely on the bubble.
Metro Atlantic
In: Siena
Siena took advantage of the home court and won the MAAC tourney over Rider.
Southern
In: Davidson
Davidson got through the SoCon tournament, and I didn’t have to stand on my head. Monday night’s win made them 23-0 against SoCon competition. Now, Davidson returns to competition against the big boys in the Big Dance.
Sun Belt
In: South Alabama, Western Kentucky
South Alabama was upset on its home court by Middle Tennessee on Monday night. As winners of 22 of their last 25, they should still make the tournament, pending what happens tonight between Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky. WKU should be in now, but can make it official with a win tonight over the Blue Raiders.
West Coast
In: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, San Diego
Not surprisingly, a decent San Diego club took advantage of its home court and beat Gonzaga Monday night to win the WCC tournament. Now, the WCC looks to have three teams in the NCAA tournament.
Last four teams in (cheering for teams like Butler this week): Illinois State, Arizona State, South Alabama, Florida
Last four teams out (need to help themselves this week and hope for help from others): Oregon, New Mexico, Arizona, Ole Miss
Colonial
In: George Mason
On the Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth
Favored George Mason got the auto-bid from the Colonial with a win over William & Mary. VCU is now squarely on the bubble.
Metro Atlantic
In: Siena
Siena took advantage of the home court and won the MAAC tourney over Rider.
Southern
In: Davidson
Davidson got through the SoCon tournament, and I didn’t have to stand on my head. Monday night’s win made them 23-0 against SoCon competition. Now, Davidson returns to competition against the big boys in the Big Dance.
Sun Belt
In: South Alabama, Western Kentucky
South Alabama was upset on its home court by Middle Tennessee on Monday night. As winners of 22 of their last 25, they should still make the tournament, pending what happens tonight between Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky. WKU should be in now, but can make it official with a win tonight over the Blue Raiders.
West Coast
In: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, San Diego
Not surprisingly, a decent San Diego club took advantage of its home court and beat Gonzaga Monday night to win the WCC tournament. Now, the WCC looks to have three teams in the NCAA tournament.
Last four teams in (cheering for teams like Butler this week): Illinois State, Arizona State, South Alabama, Florida
Last four teams out (need to help themselves this week and hope for help from others): Oregon, New Mexico, Arizona, Ole Miss
Monday, March 10, 2008
8 Points In Less Than One Second
This was a wild finish from last weekend's Oklahoma Class 2A girls high school state championship game. Yes, you read that right, eight points were scored in the last second of the game between Walters and Pocola.
A Walters player hit a three-point field goal to take the lead, and was fouled. However, Walters was called for a technical foul, because some of the team members left the bench and went on the court to celebrate. At this point, there was .07 of a second left on the clock.
The Walters player hit the free throw, then Pocola got to shoot two free throws for the technical. At this point, Walters led by two points. The Pocola player hit one of the two free throws, to cut the deficit to one point.
Pocola then got the ball out of bounds with .07 left on the clock. Cassie Slate of Pocola hit a 36-foot prayer off the inbounds pass to win the game and the state championship for Pocola.
That's a crazy finish, no matter the level of basketball.
Tournament Field Projections
Championship Week, presented by Dick’s Sporting Goods, is in full swing. Four conferences pass out automatic bids to the NCAA men’s basketball tournament tonight: Colonial, Metro Atlantic, Southern, and West Coast. The field of 65 is starting to fill up.
This week, this blog will provide a daily projection of teams set to go to the Big Dance. I will not have a bracket projection until next Sunday before the bracket comes out. Here is a conference-by-conference breakdown (automatic qualifiers in bold):
ACC
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech
UNC is ranked #1 in the country and won the regular season in the ACC. What counts on Tobacco Road, however, is the ACC Tournament, the nation’s oldest post-season tournament. UNC, Duke, and Clemson are lead-pipe locks. Miami should make it, but they need a win in the ACC tournament to make it official. Virginia Tech is in for now, but needs a win or two this week to cinch it up.
America East
In: Winner of conference championship game
Either Maryland-Baltimore County or Hartford will qualify for their first NCAA tournament with a win. UMBC won the regular season and will thus host the championship game against Hartford.
Atlantic Sun
In: Belmont
The Bruins won their third A-Sun tournament in a row to qualify for the Big Dance.
Atlantic 10
In: Xavier, UMass
On the bubble: St. Joseph’s, Temple, Dayton
Xavier is not on the Atlantic coast, and the conference has more than 10 teams, but the X-men are a sure thing for the NCAA tournament. UMass has finished strong, and has a strong non-conference schedule, helping them to make the field. The Minutemen need a strong showing in the conference tournament to stay in the field of 65. St. Joseph’s, Temple, and Dayton are barely on the outside looking in, for now. I’d be shocked if Xavier won this post-season tournament, so the A-10 will possibly get three bids.
Big 12
In: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M
The Big 12 is strong this year. UT and KU still have a slight chance for #1 seeds. OU and K-State are safely in the tournament. Baylor and A&M are in the tournament, as well, barring 1st round tournament losses to Colorado and Iowa State.
Big East
In: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Connecticut, West Virginia, Pittsburgh
On the bubble: Villanova, Syracuse
16 teams are just way too many for one conference. This group of schools would probably squeeze out a couple more bids if they weren’t in the same conference. As it stands now, Villanova and Syracuse need to make some noise at the post-season tournament in New York.
Big Sky
In: Post-season tournament champion
Portland State won the regular season, and will host the conference tournament at the cavernous (for this event) Rose Garden in Portland.
Big South
In: Winthrop
The Eagles won their eighth Big South tournament title and the accompanying trip to the Tournament.
Big West
In: Post-season tournament champion
UC-Santa Barbara, Cal State-Northridge, and Cal State-Fullerton tied for the regular season title. The tournament will be played at the neutral site of the Anaheim Convention Center, across the street from Disneyland. The winner will be a #15 or #16 seed in the Big Dance.
Colonial
In: William & Mary or George Mason
On the Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth
VCU’s hopes were put in serious jeopardy Sunday with a loss to Bill & Mary. The Tribe have never made the NCAA tournament, and have won three close games to make tonight’s Colonial final. If they are fortunate enough to win a fourth, they could well be in Dayton next Tuesday night for an opening round game. Remember George Mason? They stand a good chance to return to the Big Dance with a win tonight. I’d be shocked if the Patriots didn’t win.
Conference USA
In: Memphis
On the Bubble: UAB, Houston
Memphis owns this conference, lock, stock, and barrel. They could do their conference a favor by purposely losing in this tournament (on their home court) and allowing another team to earn the automatic bid. That will be this conference’s best chance to get two teams in the NCAA tournament. UAB is the best of the rest, but the Blazers were drilled at Memphis in their last game.
Horizon
In: Butler
With a chance: Cleveland State
The Bulldogs won the regular season in the Horizon League, and host Cleveland State in the championship game Tuesday night. Butler has been in the top 25 all season, and should be in the Big Dance regardless. Cleveland State could help themselves and their conference by stealing the auto-bid with a win.
Ivy
In: Cornell
There is no post-season tournament in this league, and the Big Red have run away with the regular season title.
Metro Atlantic
In: Rider or Siena
The auto-bid will be decided tonight in Albany in the tournament final between regular-season champion Rider and home-standing Siena.
Mid-American
In: Kent State
This is always a wide-open, entertaining tournament. Kent State should be in the Big Dance as long as they don’t implode in the post-season tournament. The MAC could get a second bid if Kent State gets to the finals and loses.
Mid-Eastern
In: Post-season tournament champion
Morgan State is the regular season champion. Anyone could win this thing. The conference looks strong enough to keep its champion out of the opening-round game, but the winner of this tournament will probably be a #16 seed.
Missouri Valley
In: Drake, Illinois State
Drake is in its first NCAA tournament in 37 years, and rolled through the regular season and post-season tournament. Illinois State was pounded by Drake in the tournament final, and will be sweating on Selection Sunday.
Mountain West
In: BYU, UNLV
On the bubble: New Mexico
BYU won the regular season, and is a lock for the field of 65. UNLV is in my projected field at this time, but needs at least one win on their home court this week in the MWC tournament. New Mexico is squarely on the bubble, and needs a strong run this week in Las Vegas, along with help in other places.
Northeast
In: Mt. St. Mary’s or Sacred Heart
This is one of my favorite conferences, because there’s nothing big-time about it. The winner of this game will probably be in Dayton next Tuesday night for the opening round game. The Mount finished fourth in the regular season, but upset regular season champion Robert Morris over the weekend. Sacred Heart has never made the Big Dance in their short time in Division I.
Ohio Valley
In: Austin Peay
The Governors appear in the Big Dance once again after winning the OVC regular season and tournament. Get ready for the cheer, coming to an arena somewhere in this tournament: “Let’s Go Peay!”
Pac-10
In: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona State, Oregon
On the Bubble: Arizona
UCLA won the regular season, and is a favorite to win the national championship. This has been a strong year in the Pac 10, and Stanford, Wazzu, and USC have nothing to worry about next Sunday. Arizona State, Oregon, and Arizona need good performances this week at the Staples Center in L.A. At this point, I have Arizona State and Oregon in the tournament over Arizona based on head-to-head performance and conference record. The Wildcats can save their season this week in Los Angeles.
Patriot
In: Colgate or American
Let’s see: Toothpaste, or our country? American has knocked on the door in this league for several years, but hasn’t quite made the NCAA tournament. This is their year, with the championship game on their home court.
SEC
In: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Florida
On the Bubble: Ole Miss
The Vols are looking at a #1 seed if they don’t mess things up this week at the SEC tournament. Vandy is pretty stout, Kentucky has made a strong comeback, while MSU and Arky are tournament teams in the West. The Florida Gators are in deep doo-doo. I have them barely in the field, but that could change depending on events this week. Ole Miss was awesome and undefeated in non-conference play, went into the tank for most of conference play, but has made a comeback in recent weeks. The Rebels could play their way into the field this week.
Southern
In: Davidson or Elon
The Wildcats took on all comers in the non-conference portion of their schedule, playing everyone except the Charlotte Bobcats. They then went on to go 20-0 in the SoCon, followed by two wins in the post-season tournament. Elon is 14-18, with three upset wins in the post-season tournament in Charleston. If Elon beats Davidson tonight, I’ll stand on my head. Lead-pipe lock of the night: Davidson
Southland
In: Post-season tournament champion
This will be a fun tournament at the Merrell Center in Katy (By the way, the Houston area has several high school arenas that a lot of colleges would kill for). Lamar and Stephen F. Austin won the two divisions, while Sam Houston will be a force to be reckoned with, as well. The winner of this tournament would be a good choice for a first-round NCAA upset, following Northwestern State’s win in 2006 and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi’s near-miss last year.
Summit
In: Post-season tournament champion
Another tournament played in a first-class high school arena, at Union High School in Tulsa. Oral Roberts, located just down the street, won the regular season and is favored to win the tournament again. IUPUI and Oakland could both make some noise here, though.
Sun Belt
In: South Alabama, Western Kentucky
Both USA and WKU have been strong this year, and should both make the Field of 65 if they both make the final in this conference tournament. If one of them lose, they slip to bubble status. This tournament is being played in Mobile, home of USA.
SWAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This conference of HBCUs spends December getting hammered for paychecks by bigger-name schools. Alabama State has rebounded to run away with the league and to sport a winning record, if not a high power rating. The winner here stands a good chance of getting an all-expenses paid trip to Dayton, Ohio for the opening round of the NCAA tournament.
WAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This is a down year for the WAC, and the conference will probably only get one bid to this year’s tournament. WAC teams such as Nevada, Utah State, and New Mexico State have made noise in the Big Dance in recent years. Boise State is the regular season champion. The tournament is being played on New Mexico State’s home court in Las Cruces.
West Coast
In: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
The Zags have made yet another conference final. Their opponent tonight is San Diego, winners over conference co-favorite St. Mary’s. The tournament is being played on USD’s home court at Jenny Craig Pavilion, aka the “Slim Gym”. San Diego could make a bubble team’s life miserable with a win tonight.
Last four teams in (cheering for teams like Gonzaga and Butler this week): Arizona State, Western Kentucky, Florida, Oregon
Last four teams out (need to help themselves this week and hope for help from others): New Mexico, Arizona, Ole Miss, Virginia Commonwealth
Updates daily during Championship Week….
This week, this blog will provide a daily projection of teams set to go to the Big Dance. I will not have a bracket projection until next Sunday before the bracket comes out. Here is a conference-by-conference breakdown (automatic qualifiers in bold):
ACC
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech
UNC is ranked #1 in the country and won the regular season in the ACC. What counts on Tobacco Road, however, is the ACC Tournament, the nation’s oldest post-season tournament. UNC, Duke, and Clemson are lead-pipe locks. Miami should make it, but they need a win in the ACC tournament to make it official. Virginia Tech is in for now, but needs a win or two this week to cinch it up.
America East
In: Winner of conference championship game
Either Maryland-Baltimore County or Hartford will qualify for their first NCAA tournament with a win. UMBC won the regular season and will thus host the championship game against Hartford.
Atlantic Sun
In: Belmont
The Bruins won their third A-Sun tournament in a row to qualify for the Big Dance.
Atlantic 10
In: Xavier, UMass
On the bubble: St. Joseph’s, Temple, Dayton
Xavier is not on the Atlantic coast, and the conference has more than 10 teams, but the X-men are a sure thing for the NCAA tournament. UMass has finished strong, and has a strong non-conference schedule, helping them to make the field. The Minutemen need a strong showing in the conference tournament to stay in the field of 65. St. Joseph’s, Temple, and Dayton are barely on the outside looking in, for now. I’d be shocked if Xavier won this post-season tournament, so the A-10 will possibly get three bids.
Big 12
In: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M
The Big 12 is strong this year. UT and KU still have a slight chance for #1 seeds. OU and K-State are safely in the tournament. Baylor and A&M are in the tournament, as well, barring 1st round tournament losses to Colorado and Iowa State.
Big East
In: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Connecticut, West Virginia, Pittsburgh
On the bubble: Villanova, Syracuse
16 teams are just way too many for one conference. This group of schools would probably squeeze out a couple more bids if they weren’t in the same conference. As it stands now, Villanova and Syracuse need to make some noise at the post-season tournament in New York.
Big Sky
In: Post-season tournament champion
Portland State won the regular season, and will host the conference tournament at the cavernous (for this event) Rose Garden in Portland.
Big South
In: Winthrop
The Eagles won their eighth Big South tournament title and the accompanying trip to the Tournament.
Big West
In: Post-season tournament champion
UC-Santa Barbara, Cal State-Northridge, and Cal State-Fullerton tied for the regular season title. The tournament will be played at the neutral site of the Anaheim Convention Center, across the street from Disneyland. The winner will be a #15 or #16 seed in the Big Dance.
Colonial
In: William & Mary or George Mason
On the Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth
VCU’s hopes were put in serious jeopardy Sunday with a loss to Bill & Mary. The Tribe have never made the NCAA tournament, and have won three close games to make tonight’s Colonial final. If they are fortunate enough to win a fourth, they could well be in Dayton next Tuesday night for an opening round game. Remember George Mason? They stand a good chance to return to the Big Dance with a win tonight. I’d be shocked if the Patriots didn’t win.
Conference USA
In: Memphis
On the Bubble: UAB, Houston
Memphis owns this conference, lock, stock, and barrel. They could do their conference a favor by purposely losing in this tournament (on their home court) and allowing another team to earn the automatic bid. That will be this conference’s best chance to get two teams in the NCAA tournament. UAB is the best of the rest, but the Blazers were drilled at Memphis in their last game.
Horizon
In: Butler
With a chance: Cleveland State
The Bulldogs won the regular season in the Horizon League, and host Cleveland State in the championship game Tuesday night. Butler has been in the top 25 all season, and should be in the Big Dance regardless. Cleveland State could help themselves and their conference by stealing the auto-bid with a win.
Ivy
In: Cornell
There is no post-season tournament in this league, and the Big Red have run away with the regular season title.
Metro Atlantic
In: Rider or Siena
The auto-bid will be decided tonight in Albany in the tournament final between regular-season champion Rider and home-standing Siena.
Mid-American
In: Kent State
This is always a wide-open, entertaining tournament. Kent State should be in the Big Dance as long as they don’t implode in the post-season tournament. The MAC could get a second bid if Kent State gets to the finals and loses.
Mid-Eastern
In: Post-season tournament champion
Morgan State is the regular season champion. Anyone could win this thing. The conference looks strong enough to keep its champion out of the opening-round game, but the winner of this tournament will probably be a #16 seed.
Missouri Valley
In: Drake, Illinois State
Drake is in its first NCAA tournament in 37 years, and rolled through the regular season and post-season tournament. Illinois State was pounded by Drake in the tournament final, and will be sweating on Selection Sunday.
Mountain West
In: BYU, UNLV
On the bubble: New Mexico
BYU won the regular season, and is a lock for the field of 65. UNLV is in my projected field at this time, but needs at least one win on their home court this week in the MWC tournament. New Mexico is squarely on the bubble, and needs a strong run this week in Las Vegas, along with help in other places.
Northeast
In: Mt. St. Mary’s or Sacred Heart
This is one of my favorite conferences, because there’s nothing big-time about it. The winner of this game will probably be in Dayton next Tuesday night for the opening round game. The Mount finished fourth in the regular season, but upset regular season champion Robert Morris over the weekend. Sacred Heart has never made the Big Dance in their short time in Division I.
Ohio Valley
In: Austin Peay
The Governors appear in the Big Dance once again after winning the OVC regular season and tournament. Get ready for the cheer, coming to an arena somewhere in this tournament: “Let’s Go Peay!”
Pac-10
In: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona State, Oregon
On the Bubble: Arizona
UCLA won the regular season, and is a favorite to win the national championship. This has been a strong year in the Pac 10, and Stanford, Wazzu, and USC have nothing to worry about next Sunday. Arizona State, Oregon, and Arizona need good performances this week at the Staples Center in L.A. At this point, I have Arizona State and Oregon in the tournament over Arizona based on head-to-head performance and conference record. The Wildcats can save their season this week in Los Angeles.
Patriot
In: Colgate or American
Let’s see: Toothpaste, or our country? American has knocked on the door in this league for several years, but hasn’t quite made the NCAA tournament. This is their year, with the championship game on their home court.
SEC
In: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Florida
On the Bubble: Ole Miss
The Vols are looking at a #1 seed if they don’t mess things up this week at the SEC tournament. Vandy is pretty stout, Kentucky has made a strong comeback, while MSU and Arky are tournament teams in the West. The Florida Gators are in deep doo-doo. I have them barely in the field, but that could change depending on events this week. Ole Miss was awesome and undefeated in non-conference play, went into the tank for most of conference play, but has made a comeback in recent weeks. The Rebels could play their way into the field this week.
Southern
In: Davidson or Elon
The Wildcats took on all comers in the non-conference portion of their schedule, playing everyone except the Charlotte Bobcats. They then went on to go 20-0 in the SoCon, followed by two wins in the post-season tournament. Elon is 14-18, with three upset wins in the post-season tournament in Charleston. If Elon beats Davidson tonight, I’ll stand on my head. Lead-pipe lock of the night: Davidson
Southland
In: Post-season tournament champion
This will be a fun tournament at the Merrell Center in Katy (By the way, the Houston area has several high school arenas that a lot of colleges would kill for). Lamar and Stephen F. Austin won the two divisions, while Sam Houston will be a force to be reckoned with, as well. The winner of this tournament would be a good choice for a first-round NCAA upset, following Northwestern State’s win in 2006 and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi’s near-miss last year.
Summit
In: Post-season tournament champion
Another tournament played in a first-class high school arena, at Union High School in Tulsa. Oral Roberts, located just down the street, won the regular season and is favored to win the tournament again. IUPUI and Oakland could both make some noise here, though.
Sun Belt
In: South Alabama, Western Kentucky
Both USA and WKU have been strong this year, and should both make the Field of 65 if they both make the final in this conference tournament. If one of them lose, they slip to bubble status. This tournament is being played in Mobile, home of USA.
SWAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This conference of HBCUs spends December getting hammered for paychecks by bigger-name schools. Alabama State has rebounded to run away with the league and to sport a winning record, if not a high power rating. The winner here stands a good chance of getting an all-expenses paid trip to Dayton, Ohio for the opening round of the NCAA tournament.
WAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This is a down year for the WAC, and the conference will probably only get one bid to this year’s tournament. WAC teams such as Nevada, Utah State, and New Mexico State have made noise in the Big Dance in recent years. Boise State is the regular season champion. The tournament is being played on New Mexico State’s home court in Las Cruces.
West Coast
In: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
The Zags have made yet another conference final. Their opponent tonight is San Diego, winners over conference co-favorite St. Mary’s. The tournament is being played on USD’s home court at Jenny Craig Pavilion, aka the “Slim Gym”. San Diego could make a bubble team’s life miserable with a win tonight.
Last four teams in (cheering for teams like Gonzaga and Butler this week): Arizona State, Western Kentucky, Florida, Oregon
Last four teams out (need to help themselves this week and hope for help from others): New Mexico, Arizona, Ole Miss, Virginia Commonwealth
Updates daily during Championship Week….
Sunday, March 09, 2008
Ugly Uniform of the Day
The Gator Nation is a proud group of people. Their football program has won two national championships in recent years, and their men's basketball team has won the last two national championships. I saw highlights today of their game against Kentucky, and cringed on behalf of Gator fans everywhere.
I didn't even notice the blue stripes on these black uniforms. All I saw at a raw glance on TV was the black uniforms with orange numbers and no trim. I thought the Baltimore Orioles had adopted a college basketball team.
The Gators don't need to stoop to having black uniforms. At least their football team isn't going to try something like this.
Ugh. Orange would be an improvement over these things.
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